2023 Elections: Who’s Gaming the Military?

 IN THE ARENA

Beyond President Muhammadu Buhari’s directive to the military to be apolitical during the 2023 elections and the subsequent assurances by the Chief of Defence Staff, General Lucky Irabor, of the neutrality of the armed forces, legitimate concerns from critical stakeholders call for more circumspect, and proactive control by the military authorities, writes Louis Achi

Following a revelation by the Chief of Defence Staff, General Lucky Irabor, conceded the military and other security agencies were under pressure to compromise the 2023 general election, the initial feeling in the nation’s media and public spaces was that the old politicians’ dodgy game was afoot ahead of the general election.

General Irabor spoke during the 61st Session of the State House Briefing on December 8, 2022. Clarifying what it believed was a mischievous misrepresentation of the CDS’ position and resultant jitters, the Defence Headquarters, in a statement  signed by the Director, Defence Information, Major General Jimmy Akpor, argued that Irabor was misrepresented, insisting that neither the military nor other security agencies were under pressure to scuttle 2023 elections.

For good measure, the Military High Command accused the media of twisting last week’s 2023 general election comment of the Chief of Defence Staff, to convey a “sinister meaning.”

“The Defence Headquarters therefore, seriously frowns on misrepresentation of the military leadership at any forum at this critical time of our nationhood,” the statement added.

The Defence Headquarters spokesman said the military would do everything necessary to ensure that the 2023 election is free, fair and credible.

“The Armed Forces of Nigeria however, stands ready to aid civil authority in assuring free and fair 2023 elections.

“Already, ongoing military operations all over the country (in collaboration with the Nigeria Police and other security agencies) are creating an enabling environment for electioneering campaigns to hold. These military operations would be escalated or re-calibrated when called upon to do so, to support the successful conduct of the 2023 elections.”

It could be recalled that President Buhari recently urged the Nigerian Army to remain apolitical and committed to the discharge of their constitutional in line with global best practices. He made the remarks while declaring open the 2022 chief of Army Staff annual conference held at International Conference Center, Kasarawa, Sokoto State.

He said his administration has maintained a robust policy in the modernization of Nigerian Army and other armed forces for improve capacity as well as competence in the discharge of their constitutional roles.

Understandably, some stakeholders are communicating their concerns on talks and counter-interpretations from the military authorities. The Atiku/Okowa presidential campaigns, last week called on the military to shun lobbyists from the political class to compromise the 2023 elections, and also urged politicians involved in such acts to go out and campaign to the people.

Warning military personnel against any extra-constitutional interference in a country’s political order is not novel.

In early September 2022, former Pentagon chiefs warned that the deep divisions in US politics are putting unwanted pressure on the armed forces and expressed concern that civilian political interference in the military could worsen.

Eight former defence secretaries and five ex-joint chiefs chairmen signed a statement on “Best Practices of Civil-Military Relations” that came after several years – particularly under former President Donald Trump – in which the Pentagon became enmeshed in political machinations.

“We are in an exceptionally challenging civil-military environment. Politically, military professionals confront an extremely adverse environment characterized by the divisiveness of affective polarization that culminated in the first election in over a century when the peaceful transfer of political power was disrupted and in doubt. Looking ahead, all of these factors could well get worse before they get better,” they wrote.

 It was for this reason that the Chief of Air Staff, Air Marshal Isiaka Oladayo Amao, while speaking at a route march organised by the Nigerian Air Force recently, warned personnel to remain apolitical ahead of the 2023 general election.

Amao, who led the route march, spoke on the need for personnel to continue to be vigilant and security conscious and remain apolitical, as the nation approached another election year.

While these warnings are important and timely in pre-empting any embryonic plots at extra-constitutional interference by the military in Nigeria’s troubled political order, their frequency suggests a closer attention should be paid to fundamental issues of statehood that are perhaps being glossed over.

 General Irabor had in February declared that the members of the Nigerian armed forces had no plan to stage coup in the country. At a virtual media briefing coordinated from the Defence Headquarters in Abuja, the CDS said the military would continue to educate its personnel on the need to shun temptations to stage coups in the country.

Irabor also urged politicians to desist from luring military personnel into political matters.

 “The leadership of the Nigerian armed forces is imploring politicians to leave us alone; do not mix us up with issues that have to do with politics. They should not use political inclinations and persuasions to want to lure anybody from the armed forces into the idea of having to undertake coups and all.

“The men and women of the Nigerian armed forces have nothing whatsoever to do with anything that has to do with coup. We have learnt our lessons over the years and we have come to the realization that coups will do us more harm than good,” Irabor reportedly said.

Again in May, the DHQ in a statement by its former spokesperman, Brig. Gen. Onyema Nwachukwu, warned politicians and soldiers against any military coup in Nigeria. The DHQ said it was reacting to a statement by a senior lawyer calling for the handing over of power to the military.

A former Chief of Army Staff, Lt. General Tukur Buratai (rtd), had on December 4, 2020, sternly warned his officers and men to perish the idea of any political inference in Nigeria. According to the ex-army boss, the Army hierarchy was aware that some generals were being approached and revealed that his eyes were on them.

“Democracy has come to stay. We will not tolerate any agent of destabilisation. The years of military misadventure in politics have never carried us anywhere. It is over…Do not hobnob with politicians,” he had warned.

Buratai had also in May 2017 warned his officers against unholy alliances with politicians. The statement came on the heels of a major shakeup in the Nigerian Army then.

It has been widely observed that military interference in politics appears to be associated with economic crisis and stagnation of growth. In a study of intervention in politics by the military in Latin America, Martin C Needler, author of Mexican Politics and former Dean of the School of International Studies at the University of the Pacific in Stockton, California, suggested that governments were more likely to be overthrown by force when economic conditions deteriorated. When conditions were improving, the military was unlikely to intervene in politics.