2023: YEAR OF WAR AND RECESSION
Some 811 million people in a warring world, will sleep hungry at night, writes Rajendra Aneja
The war in Ukraine will overshadow the politics and economies of all nations in 2023. The USA and Europe will support Ukraine with arms and advice. President Putin, along with his silently supporting nations will battle. He will not have NATO forces on his borders, via Ukraine joining NATO. President John Kennedy fought back valiantly, when he discovered Russians missiles in Cuba in 1962. President Putin will fight too.
It is a miserable pickle. Around 200,000 Russian and Ukrainian soldiers have lost their lives. According to the UN 6,755 civilians, including 426 children have died.
Peace will return if Russia and Ukraine agree a cease-fire and talk. The West may be anxious to spread their model of democracy across the world. It has to be patient and let countries evolve.
President Biden could play the role of an elder statesman and bring Putin and Zelenskyy to a dining table. Biden will be preoccupied in 2023, readying for reelection in 2024. Mercurial Trump is also threatening to throw in his hat. Politics could get turbulent in the USA.
Sunak, UK’s Prime Minister, will have a busy year battling inflation, labour strikes and Scottish desires for independence.
In May, King Charles will be crowned. The Royal family’s pageantry will mesmerize the world. Germany and other European countries will augment their defense budgets, after the Russian invasion. Defense, will not be taken for granted anymore, by Europe. Croatia will join the European Union.
Brazil’s President Lula will struggle to unite a deeply fractured country. China will continue its Covid fight, for the first six months of 2023. It should be open to buying high quality vaccines from India and the West. Human lives are important.
USA and China will continue their ramp-walks for global leadership. USA has woken to China’s augmented presence in African countries through soft loans, projects, etc. President Biden has promised to invest billions of dollars into Africa. Good, for Africans. Africa should boost its vaccine producing capabilities, so as to avoid step-treatment, in another pandemic. Congo and South Sudan will welcome the Pope. Nigeria will go to elections.
In India, Modi too, will galvanise for elections in 2024. Qatar will enjoy augmented global shine, after having managed the FIFA World Cup efficiently. Qatar proved that beer and football matches, can be separated. Expect other Arab countries, like Saudi Arabia, to bid for future global sports events, even the Olympics.
The world will be disconsolate economically in 2023. The Ukraine war will cast its shadows across countries. Ukraine is a leading producer of wheat, maize and sunflower. Importing countries like Egypt and the Gulf region will suffer shortages, leading to higher prices. Farmers in Ukraine are dodging bullets and bombs; they cannot sow or harvest serenely.
Russia is deploying its gas-supply, as a strategic weapon in the war. Expectedly so, after the sanctions. Europeans are bracing for a bitter winter, since Russia is plummeting gas supplies to them. Expect prices to go north, too.
Alas, 811 million people in our warring
world, will continue to sleep hungry every night. Another 289 million migrants are searching for countries to live in. Hopefully, climate change will have some focus.
We will pay more in 2023 for our meals. Inflation is running at an unprecedentedly high rates in the USA and Europe.
These countries which barely had an inflation rate of one percent per annum, are reeling with seven to 11 percent inflation.
Inflation is corroding the incomes of people. Sales in retail outlets of clothes, perfumes, fashion products are declining. Most large retailers, are rationalising their number of stores on the high streets.
In developing countries like India, governments will come under pressure from common citizens for augmented levels of monthly cash payouts and handouts. Countries facing elections will acquiesce.
Stock markets will remain tepid, given the turbulent politics and economics. Expect gold to hover around USD 1,840 per ounce. Oil prices will range from USD 76 to USD 90 a barrel. Covid caused significant havoc to the global economy. Now, the Ukraine war is dealing a knockout blow to the world economy.
So, expect global growth of about 2.5 percent, maximum. USA and Europe could struggle at around one percent each.
India may delight with a five percent growth.
However, it is not enough. In 2023, India’s population will exceed that of China. It will be the most populated nation globally, with 1.43 billion people.
People have to be fed, clothed, housed and employed. India has about eight percent unemployment. Its infrastructure is groaning.
The tendency to work from home will decline.
A machine operator has to go to the factory. A doctor can operate in a hospital. Only white-collar corporates can work from home. Managers have to lead teams. It is best done face-to-face. Those who choose to work-from-homes, will not build robust teams. They will lose growth opportunities.
Sometime in 2023, the new James Bond actor will be finalised. Sports fans can continue gorging. The 13th World Cricket Cup will be in February. Hopefully Messi will continue to play football and weave his magic. Every sport is now an industry with astronomical gains for organisers and players, backed by technologies and fanatical fans.
Get ready to fly in space. Drones may startgrocery deliveries sometime soon.
Netflix and other OTT steamers provide continuous entertainment, from across the world. If you over-indulge, be ready to get sleep deficit. Prepare to give up all privacy as telephones, internet, cameras and TVs record your activities constantly.
In 2023, my soulmate Patricia wants to travel to Australia for the FIFA Women’s football tournament. I wish to travel to Rome for the Ryder Golf Club. We cannot afford both. Let’s see. Normally, Patricia prevails.
