ELECTIONS HAVE CONSEQUENCES!
Nigerians should do well by voting wisely, writes Paul Obi
“If you are stupid enough not to know the difference between the devil and the angel, you quickly find the devil! This is what happens to most people in democracies just after elections”
– Mehmet Murat Ildan
In the nearly eight years that the All Progressives Congress (APC) has held presidential power, Nigeria plummeted from an African economic giant to the poverty capital of the world. Within the period, from 2015, when President Muhammadu Buhari took over power, Nigeria added 133 million citizens into the misery equation and poverty club far above India with 1.3 billion people. A sad phenomenon that the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) called the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI). For eight years, APC failed woefully to fix electricity that former Governor of Lagos State, Babatunde Fashola, SAN, told a campaign town hall in 2014 that a serious government would fix in six months. Nigeria’s economic mainstay, crude oil – was stolen with reckless abandon. Inflation has become catastrophic. Unemployment climbed to approximately 35 percent. By May 29th, when Buhari will be leaving office, he will be handing over about N55 trillion as debt to the next president.
On graft, our Mai Gaskyia (Hausa word for Mr Integrity) has turned sour. Several corruption cases sprung up to the consternation of even his own supporters who had in 2015 clamoured that Baba was incorruptible, and that he would help tame the monster of graft. But under the watch of Mr Integrity, a onetime Accountant General of the Federation stole about N109 billion – an annual budget of some states in Nigeria. N30 billion of that humongous amount has been returned according to the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC). So where did Mr Integrity take us to in the last eight years on the fight against corruption? The answer: going by our global corruption index, Nigeria became more corrupt, audaciously. On security, ISWAP and Boko Haram metamorphosed from capturing some local governments in Borno State to astronomical expansion of ungoverned territories in the North West and North Central. With Kaduna, Sokoto and Zamfara as killing fields; while Niger State, a few kilometres from Abuja, the nation’s capital became an enclave of ISIS – backed Boko Haram. Thus, will APC Muslim – Muslim ticket and PDP’s flagbearer afraid of condemning religious extremism in the killing of Deborah Samuel act, secure Nigeria?
On unity and inclusiveness: President Buhari reduced the South East – Igbos to a tokenistic and tangible dot. The president filled the whole security agencies with his kith and kin: those he shared the same tribe and religion with in a country of 240 tribes. Yet, Atiku Abubakar who shares the same tribe and religion with President Buhari is still contemplating taking over presidential power after Buhari leaves office in May, 2023. For eight painful years, President Buhari divided Nigeria along tribal and religious lines. In Buhari’s plans, my own Cross River State is not worthy of a railway, but Maradi in faraway Niger Republic that does not add a penny to Nigeria’s economy and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) deserves modern railway than the rest of the country. His main thrust was merely to dominate and secure Nigeria for his tribe and friends: his kith and kin.
The above data, neck-breaking statistics are the consequences of the 2015 presidential election. The consequences and punitive outcomes of having Buhari in power then and now. But then, in 2015, every Nigerian was assiduously warned and cautioned against voting for the APC and Buhari. Many because of tribalism and religious bigotry did not listen then. So, the tribal gangs and bigots gathered in Ojota and led Nigeria to Golgotha. They recruited so-called intellectuals from abroad who turbo-charged the mob. The outcome: Nigeria instead of entrenching democracy, ended up with mobocracy – with influence from Daura. First, Benue State that tilted the elections in favour of Buhari in 2015 started facing the consequences of its electoral choice – in Buhari. Insecurity engulfed the state, its fertile agricultural land rather than yield bountiful harvests yielded several killing fields. Other states like Ondo, Plateau, Ogun, Zamfara, Kaduna, Oyo, Edo and Enugu also faced the same brunt.
What this shows and explains is that we are a nation that constantly self-destruct herself by our electoral choices through ethnic politics and religious bigotry. Thus, after nearly eight years of wailing and suffering, another round of presidential election is around the corner. What will the Nigerian voters do? Would they vote for looters, tribalists, bigots, incompetent folks, intellectually and physically incapacitated presidential candidates and turn round to cry later? Or will the Nigerian voters seek for a better option, candidates and parties with clear-cut pathways for a better and well governed Nigeria? In their deconstruction of the folk theory of democracy, expanded in their book, Democracy for Realists: Why Elections Do Not Produce Responsive Government, (2016), Christopher H. Achen and Larry M. Bartels explained that the basic ideals of electoral democracy – rooted in public good and general wellbeing are often undercut by a growing body of scientific evidence swayed by darker choices and loyalties to corroding values – which also culminate in corrosive implications for the voters after elections. In the same token, Nigerian voters prefer to vote for darker choices and loyalties – strengthened by nepotism and religious bigotry, than face real political life based on facts, capacity to govern and competence.
Thus, on Saturday, 25th February, 2023, more than 93 million Nigerian voters have a choice in Peter Obi of Labour Party (LP); Bola Ahmed Tinubu of APC, Rabiu Kwankwaso of New Nigerian Peoples Party (NNPP) or an Atiku Abubakar of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
It is a choice to ponder whether to go with a confiscator of public wealth and a coloniser of Africa’s sixth biggest economy? And one who can “create wonders of…bala blu; blù; bula ba? Or a dishonest contestant – lacking the spirit of social justice, who in the morning, will shout zoning; but in the night, he crawls back to no zoning, that the North don’t need a Yoruba or Igbo – but only him as president. The vote in February will determine whether Nigerian voters want a medical tourist-in-chief as president receiving treatment for old age in London, Dubai or Paris using our national wealth or an agile and strong-willed president physically fit for the presidential job. The 2023 presidential run is also a choice between shady deal-makers and sane presidential candidates. The 2023 presidential contest is also a referendum on whether Nigerians want accountable and prudent government or elites’ conspiracy fostered by organized greed and a criminal state. Hence, our votes would also tell whether we are rooting for democracy or familitocracy – government of the family, by the family and for the family. Will Nigerian voters rescue the country and themselves from this APC inflicted catastrophe or plunge themselves again into a valley of woes?
Obi is a journalist, researcher and media scholar interested in media, elections, politics and democracy
