Nextier: How Youth Population Can Make or Mar Nigeria’s 2023 Polls

A group of public policy experts in Nigeria’s electioneering process has determined that the estimated over 70 per cent of the youth in the country expected to take part in this year’s general elections, form the critical factor in the eventual outcome of the polls to be conducted by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

The experts however cautioned that youth participation could be a recipe for violence or a potential risk factor for thwarting the process, if not properly managed by the political stakeholders.

In the preliminary report released by Nextier SPD and made available to journalists in Abuja this weekend, data gleaned from the INEC in 2022, following a rigorous clean-up of the voter registration using the Automated Biometric Identification System (ABIS), showed that young people aged 18-34 years would account for 76.5 per cent of 9,518,188 million newly registered voters in the country.

The report authored by Dr. Chukwuma Okoli, an Associate Consultant at Nextier SPD and a Lecturer at the Department of Political Science, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, Nigeria, and Dr. Ndu Nwokolo, Managing Partner and Chief Executive at Nextier SPD with an Honorary Fellow at the School of Government and Society, University of Birmingham, UK, noted that youths remain a critical stakeholder in Nigeria’s electoral landscape.

They warned that their teeming number which accounts for about 70 per cent of Nigeria’s population makes them a force to reckon with.

According to Nextier, their growing enthusiasm in the electoral process as demonstrated by their recent increased turnout for voter registration makes them an attraction for political parties and contestants.

“The growing enthusiasm of the youth in the electoral process is connected to a lot of factors such as their desire to change the political system perceived to have exposed them to increasing economic hardship and political marginalisation in the country over the years. What is more, social media has provided a veritable platform for the youth to mobilise and express themselves in the political space.

“However, the youths have been presented as both perpetrators and victims of violence in Nigeria’s electoral process. Yet, other studies document their role as agents of peacebuilding in the electoral process.

“Thus, youths are a double-edged sword that can be deployed for violence as well as peacebuilding in the electoral process,” the report added.

Both academics have however suggested that to tap from the gains of youth participation in the forthcoming general elections, there should be a deliberate policy by stakeholders involved in the election to deepen trust through strategic communication with youths.

There should also be a system of building partnerships with credible organisations to map and engage youth groups, including opening channels of dialogue with the militants, separatist groups, and other agitators across the country.

“The youth constitute over half of Nigeria’s population. However, their teeming number has not translated to substantial involvement in governance.

“The marginalisation of the youth in governance, frustration and weak engagement by the government makes them available tools of violence during the election.

“Ahead of the 2023 elections, there is a need to engage the youth through various means including strategic communication to dissuade them from violence and deepen their role in promoting peace in the electoral process,” Nextier posited.

Documenting its findings, Nextier said although the youth constitute about 70 per cent of Nigeria’s population and account for over half of registered voters, their participation in politics as contestants and elective office holders is limited by the high cost of elections, exclusionary legal framework, party system, and structural factors such as poverty, unemployment.

It went further to buttress that the prebendal character of politics in Nigeria makes the youth a cheap tool of violence in the hands of political godfathers.

“The frustration arising from their exclusion not only pushes them to seek violent ways to express their dissatisfaction but also makes them willing tools in the hands of politicians who deploy them to intimidate non-supportive voters, harass political opponents and actualize self-serving political objectives.”

The researchers stated: “Young people’s engagement in election violence is usually facilitated by agencies such as cults, gangs, ethnic-nationalist groups, militants, and thug groups which provide platforms for planning, recruiting, mobilising and arming young people for violence during elections.

“The history of Nigeria’s elections shows the significant role of youth as perpetrators and victims of election violence. During the 2003 elections, the youth were recruited to perpetrate various forms of electoral violence.

“In Abia and Anambra states, the then-incumbent governors were alleged to have used the Bakassi Boys to rig elections and protect other political interests.

“In Rivers State, preparatory to the 2003 general elections, the Niger Delta Vigilante and the Niger Delta People’s Volunteer Force were alleged to have been sponsored and armed to perpetrate violence by leading politicians in one of the political parties.

“In 2011, Nigeria experienced unprecedented large-scale post-election violence in which the youth such as the Yandaba, and Almajirai were identified as the key perpetrators. Similarly, young people serving as members of the National Youth Service Corps were among the major victims of the violence.

“Ahead of the 2023 election, recent Nextier SPD Policy Weekly has pointed out the role of cult gangs (usually made up of youth) in perpetrating pre-election violence in identified flashpoints in Nigeria.”