Escalation of Violence, Insecurity May Lead to Inconclusive Elections, Constitutional Crisis, Stakeholders Warn

Adedayo Akinwale

Some stakeholders have warned that the escalation of violence and insecurity pose a serious threat not only to the smooth conduct of the elections and the electoral process, but might also lead to inconclusive elections and a constitutional crisis in the country.
The stakeholders gave the warning yesterday, in Abuja, at the Second Seminar on Election Security organised by the European Union – Support to Democratic Governance in Nigeria (EU-SDGN).

The stakeholders said the forthcoming elections would hold against a backdrop of rising insecurity and violence across the nation, as witnessed by various acts of violence against citizens, infrastructure, and offices of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)in several states across the country.

Presenting a paper titled, “Analysis of the legal consequences and impact of insecurity on the 2023 elections”, a former INEC Director, Mr. Oluwole Osaze-Uzzi, said while insecurity had always been an issue of concern in elections in Nigeria, it was of even greater concern in 2023, due to how pervasive and widespread it is, affecting all geo-political zones, with swathes of the country under the control of non-state actors.
He noted that a further complication was its diverse and multifaceted nature; varying from insurrection, terrorism, separatist agitations, banditry and farmer/herdsmen clashes, to ethnic and religious tensions, kidnapping for ransom, assassinations, attacks by ‘unknown gun- men’ and arson on targeting public institutions and facilities.

Osaze-Uzzi stated: “The spectre of elections not being held in many parts of the country due to insecurity or leading to many cancelled or inconclusive elections is real and if not properly dealt with may lead to constitutional crisis that could present a clear danger to Nigeria’s democracy especially given its history of flawed or questionable elections.
“Therefore, the escalation of violence and insecurity poses a serious threat not only to the smooth conduct of the elections and the electoral process, but to Nigerian governance more widely.”

Also speaking on the, “Framework for election security in Nigeria”, Prof. Adele Jinadu, said the history of elections in Nigeria, especially since the 1951 general election portrayed the conduct of elections and electoral politics as a continuation of war by other means.
He stressed that history reflects three salient undercurrents of Nigerian politics: a mainstream political and legal culture that pursues electoral politics as a zero-sum game, with high premium placed on efficiency norms, such as the deadly violent intensity of the struggle to capture political power; the country’s underdevelopment and difficult topography, both of which impose severe capacity and logistical limitations and even imperfections on electoral administration and governance, generally; and the political mobilisation of ethnicity for electoral competition under a federal political system designed to reflect and sustain ethnic, not geographical diversity.

Jinadu explained that it was not ethnic diversity as such that was problematic from a security standpoint, but was its poor management through a party system in which ethnicity was deployed by political parties to secure ethnic voting banks for electoral politics and the tendency for electoral politics to degenerate into ethnic hate speech and violent pre and post-election ethno-political conflicts
He pointed out that the major task ahead of the 2023 general election was to design a framework that would diminish the negative impact of these three undercurrents framing the country’s election security landscape and turn elections from serving as mechanisms for democratic reversal into ones for democratic consolidation.

This framework, Jinadu said, needed to address core elements such as the failure of public security provisioning; a rise in non-state security provisioning; political manipulation and abuse by security actors; and the rising individualisation and communalisation of security.
Jinadu said there have also been attempts to diminish and compromise the integrity of the country’s electoral governance landscape and of INEC itself.
He noted that the attempt was a major factor behind the protracted debate between the federal executive branch and the legislature over the provisions and passage of the 2022 Electoral Act.

According to him, opposition to the electronic transmission of results was the major area of contestation. This opposition remains active and a cause of concern, as evidenced by allegations of attempt to remove the Chairman of INEC, to pave the way for the roll back of the electronic transmission of election results ahead of the 2023 elections.”

In her presentation titled, “An analysis of security threats and mitigation measure for the 2023 general election in Nigeria”, the Director, Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD), Ms. Idayat Hassan said in the first nine months of 2022, the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) observed 163 politically related conflicts leading to 44 deaths across 30 states.
She said the pattern of violence across the geopolitical zones included attacks on parties’ secretariats, clashes between parties and their opponents, and abductions and kidnapping of party officials.
Hassan noted that across all six geopolitical zones, there had been a rise in political violence and increased attacks on INEC infrastructure.