Just Before Midnight

ENGAGEMENTS by Chidi Amuta

On the eve of the presidential election in 2015, I had cause to write a piece as my column in this newspaper entitled “A Call Before Midnight”. That piece was a desperate cry for sanity as the nation tottered at the brink of a political catastrophe. The kernel of that intervention was to remind the feverish contestants and presidential candidates that their political bad manners were endangering national security.

At that point, we stood a clear risk of losing the nation we all love. The political gladiators had activated all the divisive forces and national security threat factors. However, the politicians were more interested in the spoils of office than the national interest or even the basic survival of the nation.

The two major contenders for power pre-eminence then were incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and his opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) challenger, Muhammadu Buhari, the present incumbent.  The nation then waited in extreme nervous anxiety as both political camps waged the political equivalent of a bloody war.

Unbelievably, eight years have passed since Mr. Jonathan conceded  to Buhari and thus defused the imminent national catastrophe. Buhari ascended the presidential throne and promised to retrieve the nation from the brinks of an abyss. The rest is present day Nigerian history.

Fortuitously, in barely another one week, the nation will embark on yet another presidential election. But we are clearly in the throes of yet  another more consequential and complicated uncertainly. Another week of even far greater anxiety looms. What distinguishes the uncertainty of this moment is its uniqueness. It is curious how an incumbent administration at the exit door can deliberately organize destabilizing confusion against a populace that is preparing for a transition election. The current nightmare of money and fuel scarcity  coupled with simulated political and judicial anarchy amount to a strange regime death wish. It is a phenomenon that is quite uncommon in political history.

Today’s threat to national security  is by far more urgent and desperate than what obtained on the eve of the 2015 election. Time is short but the sources of anxiety are too many and deep- rooted. It is curious how an incumbent administration on its way to the exit door would unleash a major economic policy that touches the very livelihood of the greatest majority. The Naira re-design or ‘re-painting’ exercise has unsettled the very livelihood of the majority especially the poor, the rural majority, the economically down trodden and the most economically vulnerable.

As we write, nationwide protests and violent eruptions are spreading across the nation. People are hungry, frustrated, angry and pushed to the margins of patience. Their existence is threatened as they cannot access their hard earned cash. An atmosphere of general instability looms in major population centres. None of the mechanisms of incumbent power stabilization seems to be capable of assuaging the raging anger.

In the interim, the major institutions of state seem to be unraveling. The president has acted in a manner that defies the basic democratic doctrine of the supremacy of the rule of law by tacitly disobeying the Supreme Court on the matter of legal tender of the old Naira high denomination notes. Similarly, any number of state administrations have issued orders on legal tender of old naira that run counter to the position of the President and the Central Bank. Clearly, we are in the midst of contending and clashing sovereignties and serial power clashes between the federal center and the states. The populace are confused as to who can best protect their livelihood in this anarchic setting.

The clear constitutional reality that the authority of the president and the federal government supersedes those of all state governors is not in doubt. But the political daring of governors who have chosen to openly defy the president on this matter is significant and far-reaching. Hungry and angry people are wont to obey their dissenting state governors on the continued use of their old naira notes. But the federal government and the Central Bank still have the last word on which generation of Naira notes can buy the next handful of peanuts or bowl of garri.

At the level of practical political reality, the question is that of what supersedes the other: is it economic survival or democratic ritual? In less than a week down the road, Nigerians are being tasked to make a rather difficult and fundamental choice between the two realms. Will anger over hunger and money scarcity take precedence over queuing up to elect another set of confused politicians?

More curiously, an incumbent administration that has performed dismally is ending its effective tenure by inflicting a very unforgettable punishment on the populace. The litany of economic theories to justify the Naira redesign policy are neither here nor there. As far as the popular masses are concerned, the policy is an act of wickedness against innocent people. Yet, the president and his ruling APC still feel entitled to victory at the imminent polls. Here is another test for the assumptions of democratic choice. Can a party that has unleashed such horrendous suffering and atrocious governance on the people be returned to power by their victim populace?

However, the stated political motive of the Naira swap, that of checking vote buying is somewhat problematic in the present configuration of presidential contestants. Mr. Bola Tinubu’s campaign has allowed itself to be boxed into the corner of owning that the Naira redesign policy is aimed at their obviously wealthy principal.  That sounds incongruous given the fact that Mr. Tinubu is the flag bearer of the president’s party. It is illogical at the level of enlightened political  self -interest for the president to deliberately want to use economic policy to scheme out his party from victory.

In the midst of the confusion that has ensued in recent weeks, a conspiracy school has emerged with the conclusion that the Naira re-design gambit and the yet unresolved nationwide fuel scarcity are aimed and timed to scuttle the general elections by creating a social and security situation that makes elections impossible. As the logic goes, this would lead to the imposition of a so-called interim government of national unity. This would  be the clearest illustration that the Buhari presidency has failed the basic democratic test of transitioning  power from one democratic dispensation to an elected  successor. Yet both INEC and the federal government have insisted and reassured that next week’s election is on course.

Perhaps the major threat to the election remains the antics of politicians and political players. The raging face off between the president and the state governors of his own party poses a far greater danger to the elections. Confusion about the outcome of elections held in an atmosphere of political acrimony can be more unsettling than pre-existing economic and logistical headaches. Similarly, in a three –horse race of candidates that reflect an ancient ethnic tripod the possibility of ethnic and sectarian discord in the aftermath of the election is an ever present danger. These can only aggravate the atmosphere of protest over money scarcity and other economic deprivations that are already raging across the nation.

In the light of these complications and the very present dangers to democratic transition, I can only replay the cautions and counsels that I sounded on the eve of the 2015 presidential election. The fears and cautions raised then remain relevant and valid in today’s atmosphere of political confusion and rascality heightened by unnecessary economic hardship.

As a way of avoiding or mitigating the catastrophe that could follow the truncation or disruption of next week’s election, I want to take readers back to the high points of my more general and still relevant observations at this same point in 2015…

We need the survival of the nation first in order to realize our disparate ambitions and aspirations whatever they may be.  To this end, our elder statesmen ought to be busy by now trying to pre-emptively manage the foreseeable outcome of the imminent elections. There is a wisdom shared by most Nigerian societies that the homestead cannot go up in flames when wise elders are at home…

Given the centrality of the political industry in our national life, it is imperative that the outcomes of our democratic transition processes  be carefully managed. Intense negotiation is now called for both by those who win and those who stand to lose the next elections especially the presidential elections. These negotiations ought to be moderated and mediated by those citizens whose standing in our society transcends partisanship…

Let us make no mistake about it. The forthcoming election is not necessarily a moral contest. Both sides represent the ugliness of contemporary Nigeria. We can argue endlessly about which side has the greater number of overgrown miscreants at its core. The hour for that apportionment is past. We know what we know. The clear and present danger is that an election is imminent and there is going to be winning and losing parties. Winners cannot take all and losers cannot lose it all…

Victory or defeat by any of the parties is almost equally loaded with dynamites that could unsettle the faulty tower of our national existence. Those of us who feel compelled to view reality beyond the present prism of venal and frantic partisanship should feel a responsibility to counsel caution and magnanimity. The winner in this election must be the Nigerian nation and its people, the multitude of ordinary folk who desire no more than a roof over their heads, one and half meals if possible, affordable schools for their wards and a safe land they can call home. Above all, our people just want to be. That is really not asking for too much…

For now, a palpable climate of fear and mutual suspicion defines the attitudes of the leading political parties to each other… So, what we have is a national atmosphere pervaded by the fear of fear. But we cannot build a nation or advance the cause of democracy with the instrument of fear…

Of course, there is cause for fear, but from a different direction. It is not the fear engendered by the mutual antagonism and reciprocal reprisals of the major political gladiators. On the contrary, what should frighten us all are the images of our injured multitudes on the streets. The crowds that we see at the rallies are beautiful because in spite of their varied costumes, they have one unifying colour: green- white- green, the colours of hope. They hope that these rallies will end with an outcome that can at least begin to address their pains. If we mismanage this outcome, I am afraid of the wrath this time around…

Through the hopes that have been repeatedly dashed and the promises that have never been kept, politicians have united the hopes and fears of Nigerian youth in a dangerous way. We have produced a generation that is no longer afraid of guns, tear gas or tanks. Not even death has meaning anymore to those who have to pass through youth devoid of hope…

Indeed there is anger in the land.  So much time has past and there is hardly any sweetness here. Too much waste has occurred. Too many opportunities for national greatness have been squandered. Disastrous governance and, sometimes, authorized criminality has given politics a bad name. On the basic obligations of government to the governed, our governments, especially the current one, have failed abysmally. The Nigerian state has failed itself and failed the international community. Above all, on most scores, the Nigerian state has serially failed its people…

But Nigeria is not beyond redemption. The one thing that makes Nigeria indestructible has not totally disappeared. Nigeria has survived repeated trials and tribulations because of our capacity to forego, to forget and collectively self-repair. We just move on regardless and somehow manage to remain in tact. At the core of this priceless exceptionalism is an incredible ability to forgive each other and forgive our leaders…

In the run up to the elections, therefore, I suggest that whichever way the election goes, our democratic continuity as a nation should be ‘a negotiated continuity’. I call on President Jonathan to immediately set in motion a mechanism either to negotiate his imminent exit or his possible continuation into a second term. If the former is the case, let him dialogue directly with General Buhari on a broad range of issues including policy modifications, immunity for self and significant adherents on punishable transgressions and, most importantly, areas of bipartisan co-operation…

Most importantly, there needs to be a new commitment by both sides not to invoke sectarian and sectional loyalties to advance their political causes before, during and after the elections. This should be a follow up to the non-violence agreement earlier signed in Abuja among the parties. In the latter eventuality, Jonathan must commit himself to a more responsible, more accountable, more enlightened, inclusive and open administration in the event that he wins…