TINUBU’S VICTORY VS OBI’S ‘EMERGENCY STABILIZERS’
It is in the interest of our democracy that the errors that defined the last elections are addressed in the courts, argues Paul Nwabuikwu
The official results of the February 25 presidential and national assembly elections are now, for good or ill, part of our history. In terms of ultimate constitutional power, Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the headline winner. Despite the efforts of his opponents to make the many gaps in his personal, academic and professional history the big issue of the campaign; despite his physical and verbal stumbles on the hustings; despite the revelations about the worst item on his controversial CV; despite the hilarious skits and jokes on social media; despite the well documented poor execution of the polls; INEC, the umpire has given its verdict. Tinubu is the nation’s President-Elect and, barring any last minute disruptive legal or other event, he will take the baton from Muhammadu Buhari on May 29.
Tinubu will thus become the fifth President of the fourth Republic, so far the longest in our democratic journey. He will also become the 16th head of government (or the 14th if the double dipping, military-civilian tenures of Obasanjo and Buhari are taken into consideration). Tinubu is also primed to assume duties as the country’s seventh civilian head of government, following in the steps of Tafawa Balewa, Shehu Shagari, Olusegun Obasanjo, Umaru Yar’Adua, Goodluck Jonathan and Muhammadu Buhari.
The rise of the former Lagos governor (allegedly) from humble beginnings in an obscure Osun village to adopted son of the famous Tinubu family in Lagos to politician to democracy activist to governor to powerful godfather to president of the largest black nation on the planet sounds like an implausible tale, the kind of script that would be rejected for being too unrealistic and fanciful. But life, as the saying goes, is often stranger fiction. And there are few lives stranger than that lived so far by the man who is set to become our president. Churchill’s famous definition of Russia was custom made for Tinubu’s personal history: “a riddle wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma”.
The man certainly deserves some credit. “Haters” (some Tinubu supporters have suggested that I am one) may quibble, “wailers” will wail, but Tinubu’s imminent ascension to the presidency is quite an achievement. The man has achieved his lifelong ambition of becoming the primus inter pares – first among equals – in the pantheon of Yoruba politicians. Of course, it’s unlikely he will ever inspire the adulation and respect that Obafemi Awolowo’s blend of political acumen, administrative sagacity and intellectual depth still commands among loyalists. In fact, the very idea of comparing Tinubu with Awo still provokes apoplectic fury within the ranks of some old guard Afenifere members.
But, measured strictly on the basis of realpolitik and power, Tinubu is about to achieve what Awolowo, or for that matter, Nnamdi Azikiwe, could not: become the nation’s first citizen. The President-Elect’s path to power has attracted scathing criticism throughout his public career. No doubt there will be more. There is a strong perception that he is ready to do anything to have his way. And the ongoing harassment of Labour Party supporters in Lagos in the lead up to this weekend’s governorship and council elections; the many documented incidents of physical attacks, burning of markets and threats of “vote for APC or pack out Lagos!”, largely ignored by the APC hierarchy in Lagos, have reinforced the impression that in the Tinubu political playbook, there are few red lines. Many perpetrators have been traced; they are mostly APC members and enforcers in Lagos. But hardly any action has been taken. They continue to roam free, spreading hate and fear in a determined effort to preemptively influence the outcome of this weekend’s polls by the basest and most violent means.
And therein lies the challenge at the heart of the Tinubu phenomenon. While his accomplishments as a godfather and audacious political strategist are undeniable, he is largely perceived as representing the kind of politics that many Nigerians across the country have gotten tired of: politics driven by money and appeal to primordial considerations, rather than inclusion and good governance. It would be unfair to say that Tinubu is the only politician doing this. Far from it. This flavour of politics is the default strategy of Nigerian politicians. And the current state of the country – the pulverized economy, the poverty and hunger stalking the land, the pervasive despair and resignation, the rush of the minority who have the resources to escape to other countries – is a confirmation that the politics of corruption, contracts, caucus meetings, demonization of “enemy” groups is not working for the country. The rise of Peter Obi, a politician who has become a local and international star by making a case for the opposite kind of politics confirms that there is a growing new wave of politics.
Of course, compromises and deals are inevitable in politics (famously defined as “the art of the possible”). But the attainment of power should not be an end in itself; power can be ennobled or demeaned by the methods deployed in acquiring it.
The second winner of the INEC announced results is, of course, Peter Obi. In fact, considering the low base he started just months ago – leaving PDP for a weak platform like Labour Party, – the former Anambra governor may actually be the biggest winner. Deploying a combination of youth-focused messaging, blistering nationwide campaigning, high profile visits to influential leaders across the country and his unique blend of technocratic, popular appeal, Obi achieved what was considered impossible by many pundits. Those who dismissed his constituency as “four people tweeting in a room” have been forced to eat their words. The elections, despite clear gaps, demonstrated that Labour Party and its enthusiastic youthful soldiers are not just a movement but an electoral force. The facts cannot be denied. While Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar who was second, according to INEC’s controversial figures, got 8.87 million and seven million votes respectively, Obi obtained 6.1 million votes. The Obi number translates to 69% of the Tinubu’s votes and 87% of Atiku’s. Overall, he got close to a quarter of the votes with Atiku slightly higher while Tinubu obtained a third of the declared votes. Labour Party has also won 40 National Assembly seats including six senatorial positions. All in all, it has been an impressive outing. Based on the announced results, Labour Party has emerged as a strong third party behind PDP.
True to the audacity that has defined its campaign, Obi and Labour have asserted they, not APC or PDP, won the polls. And they have gone to court to prove it. Not everyone believes Labour has a case. Apart from APC which of course has a stake in the matter, a growing number of pro-establishment voices, including journalists are making a case for the Labour Party candidate to “pipe down”. Their case is anchored on two points. First, they believe that Obi’s strong performance within a few months is something to build for the future on and that he should focus on doing that instead of embarking on a long, expensive court case whose outcome is uncertain. Second, they believe that the country is too fragile for disruptive legal fireworks and Obi, like every true patriot should put political stability above his personal interest. As a tribute to the constantly collapsing national electricity grid, I call those canvassing this view, “emergency stabilizers”. The problem with their position is that it ignores the main issue – the poor execution of the elections – in preference for an emotional argument which puts the responsibility for redress on potential victims rather than INEC and its partners in electoral crime. This is neither right or fair. It is in the interest of our democracy that the egregious injustices that defined the last elections be confronted and addressed in the courts. It is also in Tinubu’s interest because his mandate should be defined by the clear preference of Nigerians expressed in votes not his famed smartness as a godfather who creates electoral magic.
Nwabuikwu is a member of THISDAY Editorial Board
