Okello Oculi blames bad political representations instead of the electoral umpire for low voter participation in the elections

The low voter participation in elections for Governors and State Legislatures was widely attributed to failures by some staff of the Independent National Election Commission (INEC) in conducting election, of 25 February, 2023, for the Presidency and National Assembly members.

The hypothesis by commentators is that these deficiencies were proof of a plan by officials of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to deflate the volume of votes scored by both Abubakar Atiku and Peter Obi.  As the candidate of the Labour Party, Obi had built an image with young entrepreneurs as a champion of anti-corruption, accountability, and commitment to public welfare. His slogan of ‘’Productivity not Consumptionism’’ was felt as ‘’fresh air’’ in the country’s culture of governance.

The optimism around Obi’s candidature overlooked the political roots of both Atiku of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and Ahmed Tinubu of the APC. Their being older than Obi made it foolhardy to overlook the richer political legacies they brought to their campaign.

 Atiku was once an ally of Shehu Musa Yar’Adua, a military prime minister to Olusegun Obasanjo (1976-1979). The regime was marked by vast revenues from oil exports and opportunities for awarding contracts to potential future political friends.

Tinubu was once a Senator and veteran of a bitter Yoruba-led struggle for M.K.O. Abiola’s annulled election victory. Both men came with deep organizational experience.

High hope in Obi’s punching power also ignored stubborn warts associated with his Igbo ethnic base. These include conflicts associated with the 1967 -1970 civil war, as well as the struggle against ‘’strong man’’ General Sani Abacha’s harsh rule. The profile of votes for Atiku and Tinubu within the Sokoto Caliphate and Ododuwa loyalties, respectively, are a testimony to this factor.

In the face of these factors, Obi’s appeal was most remarkable, as well as a positive sign of trans-historical and trans-ethnic emotions and attitudes.

To explain the low turnout in the election for governors and members of state assemblies, we must confront the proposition that this was a measure of THEIR LACK OF LEGITIMACY with voters.

 It is noteworthy that where incumbent governors had a record of high service delivery to their people, there was high votes cast. The example of Oyo State affirms this view.

In the cases of Kano State, the over ONE MILLION votes cast for the candidate of New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) is evidence of ideological passion by party members who wished to replace an incumbent. Likewise, in Adamawa and Nasarawa States, the high motivation by competing groups of voters is evident.

Interviews I conducted with villagers in OSUN, ABIA and BAYELSA States, there was a shared view that the only contact they have with Local Government Councilors and State Assembly members is when they are campaigning for election. In Osun State there were reports of elected officials putting notices of ‘’BEWARE OF DOGS’’ to repel them after a candidate was elected. In Akasa (in Bayelsa State), a Secondary School in which all classrooms lacked roofs had been built by Governor Melford Okilo. One of his successors had wept over it but never returned to ensure roofs.  A health clinic with 10 metal beds had no mattresses. A woman that delivered a baby washed herself with rain water under a mangrove shrub.

In Kwara State, a Canadian volunteer reported receiving Science Laboratory equipment for her school by lobbying Canada’s Embassy to donate them. There was no access to elected representatives to seek support.

In Lagos State, a councilor reported pressuring the chairman of his council to buy cars for each member. He used his own to drive past those who voted for him without making eye-contact by focusing on traffic. The principles of representation and legitimacy remained desecrated.

In Osun State a local textile artist noted that the Local Government Chairman made regular trips abroad to import goods for his shop.  Communities in the State had no knowledge of how monthly funds received for services were expended.

Since the 1999 start of the road to building democratic politics, there have been high rate of failures of legislators at all levels of government to win re-election. This cannot be blamed on the fickleness of voters. It is more likely that voters know that legislators steal public resources.

The signing into law bills which would ensure that funds budgeted for State Assemblies and Judiciaries are not swallowed by state governors, are directed at enhancing the legitimacy to voting communities of these institutions.

Blaming INEC for low voter participation in this election deflects scrutiny away from maladies in representative politics at all levels. Research that I conducted in 2000 at the Assembly of Wisconsin State (and a Senator’s office in Washington, D.C.), showed vital lessons for African parliamentary politics.      

Prof Oculi writes from Abuja

Okello Oculi blames bad political representations instead of the electoral umpire for low voter participation in the elections

The low voter participation in elections for Governors and State Legislatures was widely attributed to failures by some staff of the Independent National Election Commission (INEC) in conducting election, of 25 February, 2023, for the Presidency and National Assembly members.

The hypothesis by commentators is that these deficiencies were proof of a plan by officials of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to deflate the volume of votes scored by both Abubakar Atiku and Peter Obi.  As the candidate of the Labour Party, Obi had built an image with young entrepreneurs as a champion of anti-corruption, accountability, and commitment to public welfare. His slogan of ‘’Productivity not Consumptionism’’ was felt as ‘’fresh air’’ in the country’s culture of governance.

The optimism around Obi’s candidature overlooked the political roots of both Atiku of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and Ahmed Tinubu of the APC. Their being older than Obi made it foolhardy to overlook the richer political legacies they brought to their campaign.

 Atiku was once an ally of Shehu Musa Yar’Adua, a military prime minister to Olusegun Obasanjo (1976-1979). The regime was marked by vast revenues from oil exports and opportunities for awarding contracts to potential future political friends.

Tinubu was once a Senator and veteran of a bitter Yoruba-led struggle for M.K.O. Abiola’s annulled election victory. Both men came with deep organizational experience.

High hope in Obi’s punching power also ignored stubborn warts associated with his Igbo ethnic base. These include conflicts associated with the 1967 -1970 civil war, as well as the struggle against ‘’strong man’’ General Sani Abacha’s harsh rule. The profile of votes for Atiku and Tinubu within the Sokoto Caliphate and Ododuwa loyalties, respectively, are a testimony to this factor.

In the face of these factors, Obi’s appeal was most remarkable, as well as a positive sign of trans-historical and trans-ethnic emotions and attitudes.

To explain the low turnout in the election for governors and members of state assemblies, we must confront the proposition that this was a measure of THEIR LACK OF LEGITIMACY with voters.

 It is noteworthy that where incumbent governors had a record of high service delivery to their people, there was high votes cast. The example of Oyo State affirms this view.

In the cases of Kano State, the over ONE MILLION votes cast for the candidate of New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) is evidence of ideological passion by party members who wished to replace an incumbent. Likewise, in Adamawa and Nasarawa States, the high motivation by competing groups of voters is evident.

Interviews I conducted with villagers in OSUN, ABIA and BAYELSA States, there was a shared view that the only contact they have with Local Government Councilors and State Assembly members is when they are campaigning for election. In Osun State there were reports of elected officials putting notices of ‘’BEWARE OF DOGS’’ to repel them after a candidate was elected. In Akasa (in Bayelsa State), a Secondary School in which all classrooms lacked roofs had been built by Governor Melford Okilo. One of his successors had wept over it but never returned to ensure roofs.  A health clinic with 10 metal beds had no mattresses. A woman that delivered a baby washed herself with rain water under a mangrove shrub.

In Kwara State, a Canadian volunteer reported receiving Science Laboratory equipment for her school by lobbying Canada’s Embassy to donate them. There was no access to elected representatives to seek support.

In Lagos State, a councilor reported pressuring the chairman of his council to buy cars for each member. He used his own to drive past those who voted for him without making eye-contact by focusing on traffic. The principles of representation and legitimacy remained desecrated.

In Osun State a local textile artist noted that the Local Government Chairman made regular trips abroad to import goods for his shop.  Communities in the State had no knowledge of how monthly funds received for services were expended.

Since the 1999 start of the road to building democratic politics, there have been high rate of failures of legislators at all levels of government to win re-election. This cannot be blamed on the fickleness of voters. It is more likely that voters know that legislators steal public resources.

The signing into law bills which would ensure that funds budgeted for State Assemblies and Judiciaries are not swallowed by state governors, are directed at enhancing the legitimacy to voting communities of these institutions.

Blaming INEC for low voter participation in this election deflects scrutiny away from maladies in representative politics at all levels. Research that I conducted in 2000 at the Assembly of Wisconsin State (and a Senator’s office in Washington, D.C.), showed vital lessons for African parliamentary politics.      

Prof Oculi writes from Abuja