S&P: African OPEC Heavyweights on Growth Path Despite Crude Underproduction

Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja

Nigeria and Angola are seemingly unable to return to pre-pandemic levels of production, where Nigeria would produce between 1.7 and 1.8 MMbo/d and Angola between 1.4 & 1.5 MMbo/d.

However, African countries fared well in the first few months of the new year with growing production in Nigeria, Congo and initially Angola, S&P Global Commodity Insights, said in a report.

According to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Nigeria pumped 1.38 MMbo/d in February, up 109,000 bpd from December and the highest since February 2022.

This is as the key grade, Agbami returned from maintenance and recently troubled flows of Forcados and Bonga saw continued rebounds.

In addition, Congo was also a big gainer in the first few months of the year, boosting its monthly production by 36,000 bpd over December 2022, the report added.

“This is positive, but as of February 2023, Nigeria was over 350,000 bo/d less than its quota of 1.74 MMbo/d and Angola was around 370,000 bo/d below its quota of 1.45 MMbo/d.

“March production will be affected by an expected decline in Angola output related to a five-week maintenance block at the Dalia Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO),” S&P stressed.

S&P attributed the underproduction to years of underinvestment, political uncertainty, country unrest, ageing infrastructure and producing assets which are combining to make it almost impossible for certain African producers to return to their pre-pandemic production level.