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2023 CENSUS: WHAT BUHARI SHOULD DO
The national census exercise should be postponed by at least two months, argues Umar Adamu
One of the best legacies that President Muhammadu Buhari is bequeathing to the nation is to have conceived the idea of a national housing and population census, a good 17 years after the last census of 2006. Even more edifying is the fact that the president has chosen to make this year’s census a digital, tech-driven headcount to give it more accuracy. For this alone, the president deserves some commendation.
But there is a challenge. It’s the matter of time and timing. Already, the census date has been joggled by the National Population Commission (NPC). It has been pushed forward from the initial date of March 29 to April 2nd. It’s now to hold from May 3rd to 5th. A three-day job that will task both human capital, technology and money.
However, because the NPC and its many ad hoc staff seem to be running against time, there is an overriding and overwhelming need to, once again, shift the date of the census by two months or three. This is purely a matter of national interest above personal ego. Postponing the census by two months will never erode the credit to the Buhari government; neither will it discredit the brilliant work and tremendous energy deployed by the NPC and its technical partners. Rather, it will provide all stakeholders ample time to make the most of this moment in our national life.
Many reasons support this argument of postponement. As I write this, the outstanding 40 percent local content of the aggregate contracts for the census is yet to be ratified by the Federal Executive Council (FEC). There is not much time between the anticipated ratification by FEC and the actual supply of the technologies by the technical partners. Already, the NPC has shown diligence and trustworthiness in the manner it has so far executed the projected especially with its taking custody of the first batches of the personal digital assistants (PDAs) from Zinox Technologies, a major technical partner in the project. Several local and international agencies have commended NPC for showing professionalism. NPC cannot afford to lower its standard just because it wants to beat a timeline for the census. If Nigeria must conduct a census this year, it must be done very well to compensate for the 17 years wait.
Nigeria is currently writhing in severe convulsion from a poorly managed general elections which was roundly condemned by international watchers, local observers and a majority of Nigerians as a charade. The election was adjudged generally as below par and not in conformity with spelt out procedures and rules as captured in the 2022 Electoral Act and the Rules of INEC, the electoral umpire. This country cannot afford another international and national ridicule by embarking on a hurriedly planned census. This is not, however, to say that Nigeria does not need a census now. The nation needs a reliable and credible census. So far, both President Buhari and the NPC have taken the right steps to ensure that this headcount unlike the previous ones is counted as worthy of the time and resources. By infusing a great deal of technology into the process, President Buhari is writing his name in petals of gold. But he must not insist that the census happens under his belt. He can make provision for the funds and other resources required to deliver the census, but he must not stick to May 3-5 date. To do so is to invite another national anomie worse than the one created by the 2023 general elections.
Without a doubt, Nigeria needs a proper and credible headcount. It is the best tool for national planning and development mapping. Any country without a reliable and verifiable census is merely groping in the dark as far as development is concerned.
A credible census gives you the demographics of any population. The number of men and women, age brackets of the populace, number and calibre of persons in urban, semi-urban and rural areas. On account of this, a nation is able to effectively distribute infrastructure and services to suit specific needs of the people. Education, healthcare, water resources, housing, transportation infrastructure and services are usually efficiently deployed where there is reliable headcount data.
Post-Independence Nigeria has had several censuses, but they usually turned out as censored census. Contentious! The 2023 census presents NPC a rare opportunity to play the hero. Nigeria’s last census was in 2006. This year’s census would be happening 17 years after the last headcount. This is unacceptable and does not portray Nigeria as a serious nation.
No nation can develop without reliable population data. Such data is needed for effective planning; and where there is no planning, development is a mirage. Just think about it; how do you deploy resources in moments of emergencies? How do you determine where housing projects are needed more; or where certain categories of hospitals should be sited on account of diseases relative to specific environments; where do you have more aged (elderly) persons; which demographics of the population are in the city centres? Where do you have more women than men and vice versa? These and many more are usually captured in any credible national headcount. And they help the relevant development agencies to plan, allocate resources and provide solutions.
One of the complaints of foreign investors about Nigeria is the lack of current and reliable data on Nigeria’s demographics. At international conferences and business meetings, many investors have bemoaned the absence of contemporary data on Nigeria that would help them make intelligence-based decisions on where, what and when to invest in the country. A corollary to this is that cancelling the 2023 census amounts to keeping development in abeyance.
Holding a national census more than 10 years apart is not ideal for national planning, going by the recommendation of the United Nations (UN). This makes the case of the 2023 census inevitable.
The Chairman of NPC, Hon. Nasir Isa Kwarra, had early in February given a strong hint on the projected outcome of the census. In his words, the “2023 census would signal a new dawn in housing and human headcount in Nigeria as there would be no over-counting or under-counting.”
Kwarra said that the devices, when commissioned with the forms, maps and other digital enhancements, would ensure that enumerators are unable to go beyond the areas assigned to them. In addition, he commended Zinox (the technical partner) for the dedication, commitment and huge capacity displayed in the way it has commenced execution of the contract.
Another landmark in the census is that it conforms with the local content policy of the Buhari government. The NPC chairman noted that the software (App) that would be deployed to enable and activate the personal digital assistants (PDAs – the tablet to be deployed to conduct the headcount) was locally-developed thus fulfilling President Buhari’s Executive Order on local content, as well as the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA) regulation on Local Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) in the procurement of the PDA devices.
Cast away all sentiments. Nigeria needs a census now. But the May 3rd date is no longer feasible. NPC should not rubbish the fantastic job done so far. It must tread a higher and noble ground by postponing the census by at least two months. President Buhari should give Executive backing to such alteration in date.
Adamu, retired journalist and civil servant, writes from Kano
