Analysts Doubt New Unemployment Template Will Change Reality

James Emejo in Abuja

 Analysts have expressed reservations that the introduction of revised concepts and methodology for computing labour statistics may just be a mere academic exercise with no impact on the current unemployment crisis in the country.

Recently the Statistician-General of the Federation (SGF)/Chief Executive, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Semiu Adeniran, said the existing methodology and definition for the computation of the labour statistics had now become stale and inapplicable to the Nigerian situation currently – necessitating a review and launch of a new framework.

Adeniran said the new methodology and changes made to the jobs survey consisted of three major alterations in the definitions and concepts.

But analysts who spoke in separate interviews with THISDAY said the new template is unlike to change the reality of Nigeria’s current unemployment crisis.

The last time the statistical agency released the country’s jobs data was in November 2021 when it made public the labour statistics for the fourth quarter of 2020.

The report stated that 23.18 million Nigerians were jobless while the unemployment rate was put at 33.3 per cent – which is still being referenced to date.

In May 2015, the statistical agency reset the methodology for determining unemployment in the country.

The exercise reduced the unemployment rate to 6.4 per cent as at fourth quarter of 2014.

The Unemployment rate would have been 24.3 per cent using its old method of calculation while the underemployment rate in the same period was put at 17.9 per cent.

Nonetheless, analysts said like the rebasing of the country’s GDP in the recent past, the new unemployment statistics is unlike to make any tangible alteration to the critical unemployment situation in the country.

Speaking, Wealth Management and Business Development Consultant, Mr. Ibrahim Shelleng, told THISDAY that in reality, all the revised methodology does is “just to change the basis of the statistics but does not solve the problem of unemployment.”

According to him, “It allows analysts to deep dive into the more realistic unemployment figures to aid in policy formulation but this will not suddenly create more employment by any means.”

Managing Director/Chief Executive, Dignity Finance and Investment Limited, Dr. Chijioke Ekechukwu, also pointed out that the template was unlikely to impact the dire unemployment situation.

He said, “Even if the methodology or calculating unemployment changes, it must involve population, it must involve a percentage of the population not earning income or not working, it must involve a percentage of the population that are underemployed.

On his part, Managing Director/Chief Executive, SD&D Capital Management Limited, Mr. Idakolo Gbolade, said the unemployment statistics have a direct correlation with high poverty levels and reduced purchasing power.