Can Tinubu Make Nigeria Safe?

Following the riot act which President Bola Tinubu read to the security chiefs last week after assuming office, millions of Nigerians are hoping that it seriously translates to changing the tide of insecurity and making Nigeria safe again, writes Kingsley Nwezeh

In a momentous inauguration ceremony last Monday, President Bola Tinubu took the oath of office as Nigeria’s 16th democratically elected president, succeeding former President Muhammadu Buhari. Since the inauguration, one question has been lingering in the hearts of many Nigerians: Can Tinubu deliver on his promise to address the country’s escalating insecurity and restore safety to its citizens?

According to the statistics of killings released by an American think-tank, the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), which issues weekly data collated by its subsidiary, National Security Tracker in Nigeria, at least 89,920 people were killed in Nigeria due to violent acts, within the first seven years of Buhari’s administration from May 2015 to May 2022.

Another organisation dedicated to the tracking of violent incidents in the country, Nigeria Mourns, recently released its first quarter report of 2023 which showed that 1,230 people were killed in the country in the first quarter of 2023.

The report also said that 79 security personnel died within the period while 658 people were abducted across the country. It added that banditry remained the most singular cause of violent deaths across the country with 29.27 per cent or 360 deaths while an existing threat is the rise in extra-judicial killings and herdsmen-related killings, which constitute about 10.08 per cent and 13.65 per cent, respectively with at least 124 and 168 deaths.

Even till the eve of his inauguration, there were still killings of hundreds of women and children in Benue and Plateau States by herdsmen.

There were also the killings in Anambra State of security personnel and staff of the United States Consulate in Nigeria a few weeks ago.

Although Buhari had pledged to crush Boko Haram, killings spread nationwide under his administration. Many Nigerians have argued that in Nigeria’s history, no administration had failed so abysmally to perform its assigned constitutional role of securing lives and property than the President Buhari presidency, despite riding to power with military pedigree as a retired major general and former head of state, a background that raised hopes that the challenge of insecurity would be contained.

It is however on record that Buhari empowered the military more than any other previous administration since 1999, but this did not lead to anything.

As President Tinubu assumes office, the eyes of Nigerians remain fixed on him, with both hope and apprehension. The path ahead is fraught with challenges, and the expectations are high. Nigerians yearn for a safer and more secure country, where they can board a public vehicle at night without looking over their shoulders.

Last Thursday, as part of his determination to address the insecurity in the country, Tinubu in his first meeting with the nation’s security chiefs, read a riot act to them, saying, a situation where security agencies work at cross purposes will no longer be condoned going forward.

He made it clear to them that he would not accept a situation in which the nation’s fortunes keep declining. According to president, in his own trajectory, national security has to be coordinated, there must be a clearing house going forward.

The president was also said to have mandated the security agencies to come up with a blueprint for tackling insecurity in the country. He said he doesn’t have the luxury of time, adding that necessary changes should be effected as soon as possible.

The meeting, which was the first with the service chiefs, was led by the Chief of Defence Staff, General Lucky Irabor. Others at the meeting included the Chief of Army Staff, Lt. Gen. Farouk Yahaya; the Chief of Naval Staff, Vice Admiral Awwal Gambo; and the Chief of Air Staff, Air Marshal Isiaka Amao, the Inspector-General of Police, Usman Alkali Baba.

Others are the Chief of Defence Intelligence, Maj Gen Adebayo; the Director-General of the Department of State Service (DSS), Yusuf Bichi; the Director-General of the National Intelligence Agency (NIA), Ahmed Rufai Abubakar.

Incidentally, in the unveiling of his manifesto, Tinubu made security a centrepiece of his agenda, vowing to implement a comprehensive strategy to combat these issues head-on.

One of Tinubu’s strategies is to bring to the fore a “bold, no-nonsense crime prevention reform” which will see to the establishment of highly trained and disciplined anti-terrorist battalions (ABATTS) — identified a special forces unit that will “seize the strategic and tactical initiative, giving terrorists, kidnappers and bandits no respite.”

The former Lagos State governor also said there would be an increase in the recruitment of police officers, while the force would be provided with high-tech equipment. VIP security will also be transferred to the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC).

While many Nigerians are cautiously optimistic about Tinubu’s promises, some sceptics have questioned whether his administration can achieve the desired results. The scale and complexity of Nigeria’s security crisis cannot be understated, and the country has grappled with similar challenges for years. What is so different about the new president’s approach that has not been tested before?

Critics have argued that systemic issues, such as corruption, weak governance, and a lack of accountability, need to be addressed for any meaningful change to occur. Comprehensive reforms and an unwavering commitment to transparency will go a long way to ensure that the resources allocated to security are utilised effectively to reach those who need them the most.

“He has a lot to do. Happily, he said in his inaugural speech that security will be his number one focus. He can kickstart by immediately reorganising the security structure and creating a joint national intelligence and response centre for arresting security challenges before it happens and responding real-time once it happens,” Timothy Avele, Managing Director, Agent-X Security Limited, said.

Avele charged the Tinubu’s administration to take decisive measures to ensure the safety of Nigerians, particularly by addressing the main causes of criminality and insecurity in the country. He said if this is done, the level of crime would reduce significantly. 

According to him, “If the new government can tackle at least three of the four main causes of criminality and insecurity in Nigeria (extreme poverty, injustice, unemployment, corruption), then the crime rates will fall below 40 per cent.”

He added: “Another critical area that needs attention is the retraining and upskilling of the police, DSS and other key law-enforcement and military agencies. We cannot be fighting insecurity with 1990 technologies and know-how in the 21st century. However, to succeed, he has to find a way to curb corruption in the system, otherwise, all efforts will yield very little positive outcome. Once he can show that he is in charge and that he means business by holding the top management of any security agency responsible for unacceptable lapses, then everything and everyone will fall in line.”

Analysing the security situation in the country, Col. Musa Baka (rtd), hopes that the new administration will prioritise security and value of human lives and contain the raging killing aimed at conquering indigenous Nigerians and taking over their lands by foreign herdsmen.

He said President Buhari got things wrong from the outset by putting square pegs in round holes with his appointments, and urged the new government to listen to the people.

“The incumbent should emulate the past that did not understand what democracy is all about, that power belongs to the people and not the government. I am from Southern Kaduna, and when we talk of people who have suffered security-wise under this government, I know how it feels. The federal and state governments have become compromised and an accomplice in the ongoing affair. When you are carrying out a reasonable task, you do not allow sentiments to blur your senses of reasoning, be it ethnicity, religion and the fault lines in our country. This government has failed to use all the instruments of coercion at its disposal as the federal might to protect its citizens,” he said.

A Certified Protective Officer, Frank Oshanugor, advised the Tinubu government to go the extra mile in addressing the root causes of insecurity, which the Buhari government failed to do.

 “Agreed that the insurgency in the North-east has been checked to a great extent, it is still worrisome that up till now in the North and other parts of Nigeria, organised killings are still taking place. An example is the Benue massacre where over 30 persons were killed by suspected herdsmen. Kidnapping for ransom, gunmen attacks, herdsmen’s unprovoked invasion and destruction of people’s farmlands, and the like, in parts of Nigeria should be checked by the new administration,” he said.

How will he address the insecurity challenge which his predecessor abysmally failed to tackle and reverse the eight years of unending blood-letting and mass murder of innocent men, women and children is what many Nigerians are anxious about.

Today, the nation stands at a crossroads, and its future hangs in the balance. As the new president assumes office, the weight of responsibility rests on his shoulders, and the hopes of millions are vested in his leadership. Only time will tell whether Tinubu can indeed change the tides of insecurity and make Nigeria safe again.