Nigeria Experiencing Outbreak of More Diseases From Climate Change-induced Flooding, Says Okereke

As the rainy season sets in fully, Professor Chukwumerije Okereke, the Director, Centre for Climate Change and Development, Alex Ekwueme Federal University, Anambra State, tells Bennett Oghifo how climate change-induced flooding is leading to outbreak of more diseases in Nigeria

On climate change-induced flooding and increased outbreak of more diseases

The main way in which climate change is leading to outbreak of more diseases in Nigeria is really through the flooding, because you know that there is very limited well structured drainage system in the country and so when we have devastating flooding events as we did last year, what we see are a lot of sludges, human and animal faeces and all manner of dirt is flushed into and associated with the flooding, even dead bodies. That is why after such flooding events there is usually an outbreak of cholera disease and other water borne diseases, so this the most important ways through which the impact of climate change is leading to a wider outbreak In the country. But there is a second way as well which is more direct, when we have long periods of intense heat waves that cause people to die out of dehydration and this has actually increased in Nigeria in the last couple of years. And the third way in which climate change and health is related in Nigeria is through the fact that when you have unprecedented or irregular rainfall, it can cause the outbreak of diseases such as malaria because water begins to gather in places where they don’t normally gather and that forms kind of a breeding ground for mosquitoes and other malaria causing parasites. Now, there are other sorts of indirect ways as well which climate change affects health some of which have not been very pronounced in Nigeria. 

What of monkeypox and lassa fever? 

Well that area is kind of a bit gray, the impact as well as I know is not very direct, the research is a bit still gray about the relationship between the two but what we do know is that the changes in precipitation pattern, is also having impact on the ways in which pigs and other insects and animals and their migratory patterns and sometimes this can actually also lead to the outbreak or incidence of new zoonotic diseases and the ways in which, for example even this Covid-19 whether there is a relationship between changes in whether and the mutation of certain diseases in animals which can then be transmitted to humans is something that is being widely discussed but the science of it is not really completely settled as it were.

Can you tell us the number of diseases? 

I don’t know the number of disease outbreaks and deaths related to that, because I haven’t studied it and data in Nigeria is very scarce. There is a lot of data that exists in terms of the number of deaths related to flooding events in the country. I think the Red Cross was saying that last year about 1,200 people died the year before. The federal government has some numbers related to the flood event last year which I think you would know as well but I think it ranges to about 1,300 deaths. There is number that I know about the heat wave which has lead to several deaths in the country especially in the last 5 years, so this I one major area of research and you shouldn’t be shy to say that this is an important area for research going forward in the country to really articulate the number of deaths. It’s kind of challenging because in the US and in the UK for example with Covid how they identified deaths caused by Covid is different from both countries ok ,if you have a heart disease and then you catch Covid and then you die,depending on the number of days you have had the heart disease is called the number of days that you live after catching Covid ,it could be said that you died of heart disease or that you died of Covid, you know both can be correct depending on the clinical interpretation of cause of death. So this is a very interesting clinical question that requires a lot of calm and careful methodology in order to be able to answer.

What should we expect in terms of future outbreaks?

That is easy to answer because if we have on the one hand an increase in the population, we are growing by about 2.2% depending on which statistics you follow. So, you have an increase in population and on the other hand with the limited work that’s being done by the government and with the rising Co2 levels in the atmosphere, it is potentially possible to expect more of these events, more flooding, desertification, heat waves ,migration, mutation. So this is a potent combination, it’s a very toxic situation. So it is possible that you can expect to see a lot more than all that. So projections is very difficult because, for example have a projection of a number of people that would be forced to migrate as a result of climate change globally or even Africa, you can get figures ranging from 20 million to 1 billion, so it’s again something very difficult to , like a definitive projection but one can say with a lot of certainty that if nothing is done, if we continue with business as usual, the number of people that’s going to be affected by climate change and related health incidences will be much more than what we expect, it can double or triple. 

What needs to be done, what do you think the government should do in Nigeria?

First, there is the need to continue to create awareness about the dangers of climate change. Second, your reason for clear policy to tackle climate change, and thirdly, there is a need to really understand much more about the connections between climate change and health. This is something I have been meaning to write for a long time I haven’t had the time to write it and it’s not something that I have really campaigned strongly about so it’s kind of lying low there in the order of things, people tend to understand more about climate change and energy also a lot of talk about renewable energy, there is I think an increased understanding of the division of climate change and desertification of biological diversity and the third in the category might be what climate change and maybe transportation or even somewhere around agriculture and water but before you even hear someone talk about climate change and health in this country, it’s quite only very few, I don’t know whether anybody is talking about it at all. So this is a major point of recommendation that the link to understand the impact of climate change and health is very necessary. 

What are the economic impacts of the disease outbreak linked to climate change?

Yes, this is also part of the point we were discussing. You know that the question was about the economic impact and it was easy to talk about agriculture contributing nearly 20-25% of Nigeria’s GDP, 70% of Nigerians are involved in agriculture, so it’s quite easy to see that anything that affects the agricultural production will automatically have a big economic impact on climate change and we also have some models that has already shown that the number of the ways in which If some crops yield will decrease by 50%, some by 60%, some by 40% so this discussion is much more advanced about the way in which climate change can affect agriculture and how it can affect the economy. With respect to health, we don’t have detailed research about how these things can occur. We can do the economics of the disease burden on people affected by cholera, dengue, affected by elephantiasis and malaria.