ANOTHER CHANCE TO GET IT RIGHT

Bode Ososami canvasses a comprehensive solution to eliminate poverty  

Looking at the ministerial list we see an attempt to balance geographical, gender, age, political and technical diversity. While we wait for allocations, there are bright sparks, enough competent hands to assign to very critical ministries. There are strong hands who can steer the ship in the right direction.

However, some have called the list underwhelming, a terrible choice of cabinet – adding that (in most cases) former governors tend to emerge as incompetent corrupt ministers. Also there are a few inexperienced candidates that can slow things down. The conclusion has to be that it is a list driven by some merit, laced with the regular political compromises.

What is more useful now is to focus on putting in place tools to get the best out of the choice. What do I mean?

In Chile, for example, they designed publicly monitored performance indicators for ministries and agencies. It did help despite challenges in the autocratic political system. So we need to agree and enforce performance pacts. These performance commitments must be strongly linked to the government’s agenda. As score cards are used …ministers not seen to be performing can drop out. But even many so- called technocrats may be overwhelmed with the resistance – calling for more softer negotiation and political skills.

Ministers also should sign updated code of conduct commitments – covering unacceptable leverage of influence for personal gain or to reward patrons, related party interests in contract awards, limit to value of gifts, bribery, diverting resources for personal or party gain, unacceptable behaviour eg bullying and intimidation; and preagree to consequences for breaches.

The other thing is to mandate from the onset, changes to push a new culture of fiscal accountability and reduced cost of governance. If you read former Minister of Finance – Segun Aganga’s book…which by the way is essential reading “reclaiming the Jewel of Africa”; the former minister says the system that we run is not bad … but too expensive for our pockets. Ghana has cut down discretionary spend by 30%, suspended the purchase of foreign vehicles, placed a ban on foreign travel except in critical cases, reduced expenditure for meetings, conferences and also reduced ministers salaries by 30%. The tone is clear, costs have to come down. In Sweden, legislators are expected to use public transport for meetings and travel within the country and there is regular scrutiny requiring that any excessive expenditure be refunded. In Nigeria there is instead a corrosive culture of extravagance that still needs to be addressed.

The ministers are change and reform champions to lead Nigeria to a better future …they should also be trained in change leadership …so they know how to navigate bold changes, reach out to very diverse stake holders – how to communicate and carry citizens along.

So like someone said…Lets just wait and watch what they do.

The journey so far. The world bank can be a powerful enabler – bridging short and long term funding gaps with cheap liquidity; but the vision, leadership and stamina to stay the course – needs to come from Mr President. The context is tough after abolition of fuel subsidies and exchange rate reform. The four in 10 Nigerians living below the national poverty line, lacking education and access to basic infrastructure, should be the clear focus of the government. That is the burning platform of today – requiring government to find the way and means, ie a comprehensive, sustainable and structural solution to eliminate poverty in the country.

On speeches, a biannual state of the nation address is best practice to keep citizens informed. The times call for more than good speech delivery. It was important to clear misgivings and communicate early stages of initiatives to address obvious pains even though some of the interventions may still be work-in-progress. The recent speech did that. Nigerians also want good news. Reform can be painful but has already started yielding positive reactions. Nigeria’s credit outlook was yesterday upgraded to stable from negative by S&P Global Ratings on Tinubu’s reforms, implying investors have cause to return.

For change to succeed, using a simple framework, you need to have demand for change at both the macro and micro level (don’t assume people want change…most don’t and if they did …there are interests ready to kill that appetite for change).

Apart from demand for change – you also need to supply interventions that make the change happen also at both the macro and micro level. Supply involves rebuilding institutions and reengineering processes  entailing complex and comprehensive multidimensional programs integrating technology, out-of-the-box thinking and involvement of stakeholders. It requires piloting new ideas, reorientation, retooling, etc.

The bigger job is in the micro-level change demand and supply execution… (put plainly) changing how we regulate companies, how we pay taxes, how we interact with government services, the experiences at government hospitals, the local police station, at the airport. For instance, you can’t have a welfare system covering 80 million poor or even administer palliatives effectively without very strong tech. enablement. Micro and macro level enablement is also complicated by huge cultural and attitudinal issues. This is a doable journey but which will not be achieved accidentally nor with feeble efforts. “Business as usual” will not do the trick.

The speech by the president was helpful in supporting demand for change – selling the rationale for key actions …but softer in supplying critical interventions which requires a more comprehensive approach, requiring more input from and testing ideas with stakeholders. Also, you cannot force pills down peoples throat … just because it worked somewhere else. You still need to pace your agenda – for what people can digest and adapt to your context.

Finally – outcomes count – perhaps much more than effort. There must be readiness to make corrections as data outcomes reveals the need. Quarterly and monthly monitoring of statistics on poverty in states, on jobs, macroeconomic data, inputs from independent bodies like world bank ease of doing business group … polling of citizens on whether they feel the improvements or not … are all very important.

The government must encourage press freedom, welcome non- government organisation’s scrutiny and criticism which is often admittedly unfair. Critics should never be called wailers; they are often a very useful moral compass. Otherwise no one will say that the emperor has no clothes. So again I say – let’s wait to get a clearer picture of the planned change journey. Optimism is good but citizens should also be ready for hard truths … otherwise fiction will be fed to people to just appease their nerves. Let us give it more time and give the President a chance.

Ososami is of ARISE NEWS Channel