IDEOLOGIES, COUPS AND ANXIETY 

Dayo Sobowale argues that ideologies drive political systems and nurture their constitutionalism

Two words used by the Nigerian presidential spokesman to describe the evolving reaction of ECOWAS led by Nigeria to the coup in Niger prompted today’s title of this piece. The errant words are autocracy and contagion. Both are misleading in describing the situation on ground as the coups in Africa and   now Niger, as had been the case in recent ones in Francophone Africa, have been  relatively few and far between, and most of Africa is still under legitimate if less  than perfect democratic rule. At least the majority of ECOWAS is. So a military coup is plain military  intervention and a democratic illegality and not anything else . It is certainly not an autocracy which is a legitimate constitutional rule , albeit  undemocratic . Good examples are the  kingdoms or monarchical structure of the Gulf states and Saudi Arabia in the Middle East. A more   interesting example is the British constitutional monarchy , which  to  me  is an  ambivalent  autocracy where parliament is supreme but the cabinet  system of government is subject to the approval of the king , lately for long, the queen . To me the use of contagion is traceable to a Covid  hangover  from  when science   and   public  safety  took over political power with global economic lockdowns and covid protocols which saw governments using health restrictions and public safety to expand   state  regulations and power at times in breach of democratic rights of people who elected such governments .

I will prefer to see the spate of coups like in Niger and Gabon recently in the light of the anxiety generated during the Cold War when the US saw the invasion of South Vietnam by the North as a sort of domino theory. The reasoning being that if one Asian democracy should fall to communism other Asian nations would suffer the same fate. That did not happen we   can see  now with the benefit of hindsight . Eventually the US lost the war in Vietnam as it has lost most foreign wars ever since and that has created a loathing for foreign wars in the US political leadership psyche. Especially with the way the Biden Administration withdrew from Afghanistan lately like a frightened dog with its tail between its hind legs.

It is my considered view on coups that ideologies drive political systems and nurture their constitutionalism. Any departure from the rule of law under which an elected government is run is both an illegality and a constitutional aberration . A  coup  is therefore an attack  by force on the rule of law . Its  seeming  rationale ,  or  irrational ideology is that  all  power flows from the barrel of a gun , a quotation attributed to China’s communist leader  Mao Tse Tung  when  he used state terrorism to  create the one party state which  has ruled  China with an iron grip ever since till  now . Military intervention in a democracy such as happened in Niger and now Gabon should be nipped in the bud just as ECOWAS is trying to do  although  there is consternation and anxiety  in the  community  about the consequences of war . It is like the dilemma of the cat that would eat fish from the pond but does not want to get its paws wet . There is certainly a political divide in Nigeria  especially on the matter and that has been compounded  by the fact  that  Nigeria has just had a  presidential  election from which  the present president was elected . Let  me say that it is sheer  coincidence  that this piece is coming out on the day that the presidential election petition tribunal recently  set  to give its verdict on the case  in court challenging  the election of  the winner of the 2023 presidential election .

Regardless of the verdict which is a product of constitutional  rule , there is no doubt that  for  now the elected Nigerian president is Bola Ahmed Tinubu and he is the Chairman of ECOWAS because it is the rotational turn of Nigeria to hold that position . As the president of the Nigerian Bar Association noted recently ,  Tinubu  was invited  recently to address the NBA Conference in his capacity as the  winner of the presidential election as  declared by a competent authority namely INEC constitutionally empowered  to do so . So with regard to ECOWAS Tinubu  has both legitimacy  and authority  to  lead ECOWAS in providing leadership  to promote  the rule  of law.  Nevertheless the Nigerian president is both a product and a victim of the rule of law because the law allows those questioning his legitimacy and the integrity of his election victory in court,  while the same law confers legitimacy on his position till  the legal  and electoral  challenges to his election run their  full  course in the law  courts . Which means the   status quo in both Nigerian leadership and that of ECOWAS  will  not be affected  yet  by the verdict of today .

In   this regard, it is  necessary  to compare what is happening in the courts in Nigeria  especially  today  with what is happening in Niger  right now and what  happened in what  the US called  a coup by former president Donald Trump  on  January 6, 2021 ,   over the election he lost in 2020 to President Joe Biden .

In Niger where the people initially trooped out to welcome the military take over there is anxiety because the French Ambassador has refused to leave on the instruction of the French President Emman Macron who insists that he respects only the deposed president as the legitimate ruler and not the head of the presidential guard who displaced him . There are French troops under arms in Niger and the protesters have given them ultimatum to leave after which they will storm their barracks. The presence of French troops should deter the protesters but it is not . France will not want to lose face if its troops are attacked or if the ambassador is ejected physically . So the political air in Niger is polluted with anxiety and potential  violence  because  the rule of law  bolted  out when the military struck and forcefully removed the elected president . With  the threat of ECOWAS intervention what Niger  and its military  coupists have right now is the peace of the graveyard, at best .

In the  US,  huge  court  sentences   and   jail  terms  have been meted out to those involved in the ‘ insurrection ‘ at  the US capitol on Jan 6, 2021  when  Trump’s  supporters besieged the US equivalent  of our National Assembly and some sat on the Speaker’s Chair ,  just as some hooligans did during the EndSARS  protests  in  Lagos and sat on judges chairs,  before burning the high court at Igbosere Lagos .  Even Trump is under many indictments because of his insistence that the election of 2020 during covid was rigged against him . The American government of the day is using the might of the law and the incumbency   factor to deal with Trump and make sure he goes to jail for election interference. Trump’s supporters see this as political  victimization and Trump  has become the leading  Republican candidate against  the incumbent  president in the race for the presidency  next  year  . In the US political victimization in Trump’s case has turned unexpectedly into idolization by his  party supporters and great political anxiety and  chagrin for  the US government going to prosecute him at election time . Yet ,  the law must  take its course because it is a dictum  of the rule of  law  that no one is above the law in any  democracy  especially  one that  claims it is the leading democracy in the world .

Sobowale is of Arise News