Climate Risks: The Known Unknowns
Robert Mbonu
There is an old folklore proverb – What an old man sees while lying down, a young man can never see even when he climbs up in a tree. The meaning is that elderly people possess the wisdom to see far and to see ahead. Climate related risks however present a critical challenge – there are very few experiences to draw from. There are no “elderly” people as we all grapple with mitigating and adapting to the unpredictable risks that come with increasingly unforeseeable impacts, such as global rising temperatures, sea levels and increasingly volatile weather patterns.
Nobody can deny the impact of the climate crises anymore. Just look around – historic floods, more intense droughts, extreme heat, significant wildfires that have caused such damage never seen before.
What do we know about climate risks? There are things we know, like it’s real. The climate is changing and the world around us is changing. We know that. We also know what is causing it. But what do we not know?
This August there was a tragic event in Maui, Hawaii, when wildfires ripped through the town of Lahaina. Several people were confirmed dead, with even several more still missing at the date of writing. 2,200 structures were damaged and insured losses are estimated in excess of $5bn. This apocalyptic event has displaced thousands and caused mental and physical injuries that will never go away.
How can could this happen in a sophisticated western country that had a thorough emergency alert system which should have triggered over 80 sirens around the area?
Donald Rumsfeld famously said; “…as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don’t know we don’t know. And if one looks throughout the history of our country and other free countries, it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones.”
Every climate related event has the known knowns – the things we know. For instance, excessive rainfall, terrain, and nature of soils are natural causes of flooding. Furthermore, poor environmental planning/ monitoring, housing development in flood prone areas, poor waste disposal practices and weak enforcement of policies contribute to flood occurrence.
The known unknowns are that another major climate risk related event might occur. In risk management and business continuity circles, it is accepted that the risk that we plan for is not always the one that happens, therefore our plans must be adaptable to the ones that do occur.
We can spend a lot of time talking about whether tsunamis and wildfires are climate related risks. That’s not the issue here, it’s about planning the response and adapting those responses according to the climate risk presented.
When we are assessing climate risks, we should be asking those three questions I introduced in the last article;
- What do you think are the biggest threats to this area / organisation, how big are they and how are they changing (where size is a combination of likelihood and impact)?
- What do you see as the biggest opportunities, how big are they and how are they changing?
- What is stopping the area / organisation from embracing those opportunities and dealing with the threats?
Knowing the biggest threat enables the design of a disaster management plan. A preventative plan designed to reduce the harmful effects of any foreseeable climate disaster like droughts or extreme storms.
A hungry man is an angry man. Hunger associated with poverty are leading causes of instability and strife in developing countries. The link between climate risk and food sustainability for instance is a reason to be taken seriously. How much food is available depends on food production. Food production levels in Nigeria are already below demand. US$10 billion of imports is needed to meet existing food and agricultural shortfalls. Flooding reduces harvests and planting seasons, culminating in food shortage crises. If people must be fed to perform, and people are needed to drive businesses, it follows that food stability is then linked to business sustainability, which is directly related to economic growth.
This scary scenario shows very poignantly that climate risk assessments need to be rigorously kept up to date, and every aspect of the adaptation plan tested and challenged regularly. We must plan for those climate risks and combinations of climate risks that we know of and anticipate, but simultaneously ensure that our responses are adaptable for whatever is thrown at us.
Nigeria is one of the worlds most densely populated countries with a population of 200 million people, half of which are in abject poverty. The time is now to adopt measures to minimise any adverse effects on livelihoods, such as crop production, livestock production, fisheries, forestry, and agricultural harvests. Floods which devastate farmlands are expected to continue with the increased frequency of heavy rainfall. Increased flooding could severely affect water quality and infrastructure.
This unfolding scenario presents both threats and opportunities depending on the vantage point being viewed from.
It is easy to be wise in hindsight and become the “elderly” person, but examples like the sad tragedy in Maui are there for us to learn from as we develop our climate risk assessments and plans. Climate related risk is our reality, and more attention should be paid to it.
This is the fourth article in a ten-part series examining the effects of climate related risks and impacts for individuals, businesses, and government.
.Robert Mbonu (rcmbonu@gmail.com).
