Obaseki Will Do Well to Maintain Peace in Edo

Allison Abanum

The political sphere in many States in Nigeria is one that has proven to be fragile. Delicately poised at all times, held together by concessions as regards leadership rosters and permutations, more so in multi-ethnic states like Edo state. This fragile balance in the political sphere of such states often faces stern tests with every election circle. Tests that if not properly handled can debase this balance and degenerate into problematic occurrences which may border on ethnic crisis spurred by a feeling of unjust treatment by some quarters, that will surely trouble the security, development and political future of the state.

Edo state is quite an interesting state being the multi-ethnic state that it is, hosting a number of ethnic groups. The quintet of Akoko Edo, Bini, Esan, Owan and Afemai to a larger degree are the main ethnic groups in the state geopolitically enveloped into the 3 senatorial zones with the Bini, Esan and Auchi regions being the three with historical political relevance as was divided upon the dawn of the democratic era in 1999. As it is typical with states with multiple major ethnic groups, a consensus on rotation of leadership candidacy is established and this to a large extent determines the political stability of the state. Successive governments look to uphold the laid down structure and follow the patterns with each majority taking turns to produce a Governor at it’s turn. This is valid bar some exceptions. A disruption of the balance and pattern of political affairs often leads to some quarters feeling cheated and matters arising hereafter can spiral out of control.

Governor Godwin Obaseki will do well to seek to maintain this balance in Edo state and not do anything to disrupt the pattern of rotation of leadership for any reason whatsoever be it personal or agenda wise. Democracy in 1999 saw Chief Lucky Igbinedion from the Benin region become Governor lasting the maximum eight years in office. Next came Professor Oserheimen Osunbor of the Esan region whose tenure was short lived only lasting between May 2007 and November 2008 as he was removed by a Court Judgment invalidating his election. Next came the then Comrade Adams Oshiomole of the Auchi region who also lasted the maximum eight years in office. Obviously the roster was set to reset to start over again which it rightly did producing the incumbent Governor Godwin Obaseki from the Benin region. It is worthy to note that in states where such rotations are set, it is done in no particular order provided the roulette goes round and starts again without skipping any group. For many there is no rubber stamped sequence of exchange.

The 2024 elections preparation in the state is gathering pace already and obviously the next Governor will come from either the Esan or the Auchi regions with the third excluded due to the incumbent being of that extract. Where problems might arise is when for whatever reason, the power of incumbency is being used to ensure that it is a must for an anointed one to be next Governor as if to say there was a rubber stamped exchange sequence rather than allowing a fair and leveled playing field for the two regions and candidates in contention. Governor Obaseki should thread carefully in his dealings and aspirations,  having served his own tenure successfully he will do well to refrain from anyways trying to insist that it is the candidate from the Esan region that must succeed him. Doing this will disrupt the delicate balance the state political sphere has so far enjoyed and it may spell out lots of negatives firstly for himself and then more consequential for Edo state as a whole.

Obaseki will do well to maintain the peace the state has enjoyed thus far and ensure a level playing field and not enforcing a rule that is clearly not agreed to by all. Statistically if any sequence of exchange is to be followed, after the Benin region which has the highest number of local governments, the next in line should be the Auchi region being next as regards the amount of local governments and people by extension. Obaseki should avoid any veto act or seeming affiliations that may stir up ethnic tensions of any type in the state as it will be disadvantageous to Edo state. Enforcing his own will for whatever reason will be declaring against the Auchi region and they too will definitely not be push overs.

On the surface it may seem a little matter, one that may be brushed off as an incumbent Governor having a preferred candidate, but with a forensic look at the intricacies of the issue, one would see that if Governor Obaseki goes ahead to enforce a will detrimental to the chances of the Auchi region, what may lay in the horizon may not be palatable for the state as a whole. Wisdom and diplomacy should take center stage over personal ambitions and permutations in this issue. Edo state has enjoyed a somewhat brotherly coherence between the major politically relevant areas, free of violence and discord to a large degree and this should be maintained at all cost for the betterment of the state. It surely looks like Governor Obaseki has a huge role to play in this and it is the hope of many that he plays it well as it should be.

Allison Abanum is Senior Special Assistant on Strategic Communication and Documentation to the Governor of Bayelsa State.