WHAT NEXT FOR AISHATU DAHIRU BINANI?  

In my piece, What Next for Aishatu Binani? published in the THISDAY Newspapers of April 24, 2023, I postulated that the Adamawa APC Gubernatorial Candidate in the 2023 election, Senator Aishatu Dahiru Ahmed Binani, has three options to choose from, which will make or mar her political future. First, Binani can continue to insist that she is the ‘Governor-Elect’, as declared by the suspended Adamawa INEC Resident Electoral Commissioner (REC) Hudu Yunusa Ari. In this case, Binani will approach the tribunal with that sole demand. The second option for Binani was to pursue her case through the tribunal while completely ignoring Hudu’s bizarre actions. The third option for her was to retreat and congratulate Governor Ahmadu Umaru Fintiri. That’s to discard the option of any litigation and move forward. Binani and her team chose the former; they opted for litigation. Now the Adamawa Governorship Election Tribunal has dismissed her case, thus putting her in a catch-22 situation. If Binani has to pursue the case to the Appeal and the Supreme Courts—she would overstretch her luck. in politics, when you overstretch your luck, you may hit the wall with your head.

Everything being equal, Binani will battle three issues: she has lost a good rapport with most Adamawa APC-critical stakeholders. Second, the party itself seems not to be on the same page with her. Thirdly, to continue with the legal battle means a kind of pressure on her personal pockets while knowing fully well she has no chance. All the politicians that will stay on Binani’s side will only continue to do so if it will oil their courses. Prof. Jibrin Amin has a popular saying: Ba’a Adawa, Babu Dawa (opposition only survives with resources at hand). Fourthly, her philanthropic activities will diminish because she is not in a government position that allows her easy access to materials. Fifthly, discontinuing the case will portray her as weak in the eyes of her supporters. All Binani diehard supporters heavily rely on ‘the court case’ to have temporary relief and hope.

To be fair, Binani is among the very few politicians with cult-like followers and has fought a good battle in her own rights. But now she has found herself between two dicey options: one: reformat her politics by discarding all the unnecessary legal tussles; two: mend fences with her party at the state and LG levels, including lowering her head to some APC stakeholders who, hitherto, she assumed were not important, but have shown their capacity and understanding of how Adamawa politics works. Two: go with her cult-like followers, whose only hope and temporary relief is to continue with the extraneous legal battle. And, whichever way she follows—Binani will now battle with being absent from the scene.

Another salient fact is that one cannot discuss Binani’s political future without looking at Hudu’s fate in the court. A federal high court has ruled that Hudu’s trial can go ahead. Hudu’s fate will have an impact on Binani’s political future.

Furthermore, the Adamawa APC will definitely continue to have two sides: the Binani side, who has suffered massive losses of positions and ‘steam’ due to court judgements against them, and the other side, who are in absolute control of the party machinery, federal might, and also sitting akimbo, laughing at the former’s predicament.

Nevertheless, one big picture is that Binani, as a person, will have to sit down and look at things from one important angle—the feasibility of being the sole financier of an opposition facing a battle from two fronts—its party and the government in power. Will Binani resort to what she did after the 2015 elections? When she suffered a ‘not surprising’ defeat in the 2015 Adamawa central senatorial election, she imposed upon herself a premature retirement from politics. The 2015 senatorial outing was a product of a miscalculated political move—contesting for the Senate on a very weak platform—the PDM.

Zayyad I. Muhammad, Abuja