Report: Nigeria May Lose $460bn to Climate Change by 2050

* World Bank: Problem has made life more difficult for millions of Nigerians

Ndubuisi Francis in Abuja

Nigeria stands the risk of losing $460 billion by 2050 due to the effects of climate change if adequate remedial measures are not put in place to address the problem, a new report by Agora Policy has warned.

The 84-page report by the policy think-tank which was packaged with the support of the MacArthur Foundation Nigeria faces a humongous multi-sectoral challenge posed by climate change.

It acknowledged that while it was difficult to accurately calculate the economic cost of climate change in Nigeria, available estimates however, suggest a cumulative of up to $460 billion by 2050. 

The Director of the Centre for Climate Change and Development (CCCD), Prof. Chukwumerije Okereke, presented highlights of the report titled ‘Climate Change and Socio-Economic Development in Nigeria’ during a policy conversation in Abuja tagged, ‘Nigeria, Climate Change and the Green Economy.’

Citing the report, Okereke listed the huge implications of climate change on the country, adding that among others, Nigeria can lose billions and up to trillions in stranded assets due to climate change and global climate policy action. 

The report also cited Nigeria’s vulnerability to the impacts of climate change as much of its agricultural sector, which contributes about 24 per cent to its gross domestic product  (GDP) is rain-fed and climate-sensitive.

Health, transportation, energy and water resources and other sectors are also vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

According to the Agora Policy report, climate change will potentially increase the case of malaria burden in Nigeria, stressing that the country has the highest burden of malaria globally, accounting for nearly 27 per cent of the global malaria burden. 

The report alluded to a scientific evidence that Nigeria is experiencing rapid climate change, with figures suggesting the situation would get worse with time.

It added that climate change is compounding poverty challenges in Nigeria and impeding the attainment of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in the country. 

Noting that the issue offers opportunities for economic competitiveness, energy security, and sustainable development, the report observed that the Nigerian government recognises the challenge that the climate crisis poses to its development, and that there was a need to address such for national sustainable development.

However, the report observed that action has not kept pace with pronouncements and pledges. 

While underscoring the reality that global transition from a high-carbon economy to a low-carbon economy is well underway and will likely make Nigeria poorer unless the country acts, the report came up with policy recommendations to mitigate the huge impact of climate change on the country.

These are to strengthen national climate policy frameworks, deepen institutional capacity for climate action and the legal framework, ensure adequate climate funding, ensuring a just and fair energy transition and increase the level of public awareness for climate change.

Others are to pursue a collaborative approach to low-carbon development future, strengthening integrated agriculture, forest, and water management and creating the conditions for resilient cities and infrastructure, among others.

Earlier in his welcome address, the Founder of Agora Policy, Mr. Waziri Adio, noted that there are some individuals, organisations and government agencies that are making a strong case for and designing and implementing consequential climate interventions in the country. 

Adio lamented: “But the sad, inconvenient truth is that climate change still does not rank very high on our policy agenda and in our popular imagination. 

“Both in official circles and among the populace, climate issues are not seen as really important and urgent. Our national attitude oscillates between denial and indifference. 

“Most of our people, including highly-placed government officials, see climate change as other people’s problems or an issue that is only for tree-huggers and environmentalists, or something that should bother only those who have the luxury of not wrestling with hunger and other existential matters—as we say in pidgin, ‘somtin for pipu wey don belleful’.

“Or because we are a people of fantastic faith, we simply think and believe that the negative impacts of climate change will never be our portion. 

“But the burdens of shifts in climatic conditions are already our portion. They are all around us. The rise in temperature, the irregular raining patterns, the near perennial flooding across the country, the increasing threats of desertification and gully erosion and others already have deep, negative impacts on food production, food security and food inflation, and on water, on health and productivity, on energy and infrastructure, and on the conflicts that continue to multiply partly on account of vanishing natural resources.”

He stressed that: “Whether we want to accept it or not, whether we think it is other people’s or our own headache or not, whether we think it is our portion or not—climate change is already exerting a big toll on the things we consider critical and urgent. It is already here and now, not a matter of hereafter. 

“It is not what we can simply wish away by faith. And because of its multi-dimensional, ramifying nature and multiplier effects, climate change is the most existential threat we face already. 

“And it is projected to get significantly worse within a few years. This silent crisis of today is likely to escalate into a catastrophic one soon—unless we act urgently, intentionally, and boldly. 

“There are additional reasons for greater urgency. We are a resource-intensive but ironically energy-poor country. The global transition away from fossil fuels poses grave threats to government revenue at all levels and our capacity to provide the much-needed power for homes and industries. 

“Our capacity to fight poverty and achieve the SDGs and to increase national productivity and competitiveness may be further compromised.”

In his goodwill message, the Country Director of the World Bank in Nigeria, Dr. Shubham Chadhuri, stated that climate change was already taking its toll on the country, and had already made life more difficult for millions of Nigerians because of rising temperatures,  flood, water scarcity, desertification and coastal erosion, among others.

He said helping and supporting Nigeria on how best to respond to the reality of climate change was part of the World Bank’s programme, and underscored the need to dwell on the adaptation, as well as the mitigation challenge.

Chadhuri noted that Nigeria has many groups, think-tanks and institutions that tend to inform and influence public discourse, adding that it was time to give practical expression to the challenge posed by climate change through an effective synergy and collaborative efforts to address the very troubling issue.