Cardoso: Inflation, Exchange Rate to Decline in 2024

*Projects less revenue from oil exports next year

Sunday Aborisade in Abuja

The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Olayemi Cardoso, said  in Abuja yesterday that the rising inflation and exchange rates will reduce drastically in 2024 .

Cardoso, who also projected less revenue from  oil exports next year, declared that the total trade from Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), stood at N18.804 billion in the third quarter of  2023.

He spoke when he appeared before the National Assembly joint committee on Banking , Insurance and other Financial Institutions for an interactive session.
He explained to members of the joint committee from both chambers of the National Assembly that outlook for domestic economy in Nigeria for 2024 remains very positive as both the   inflation and  exchange rates , would withstand fluctuating  pressures on them and get stabilised.

He said: “The outlook for the domestic economy remains positive and expected to maintain the positive trajectory for 2024 .

“Inflation pressures may persist in the short – term but is expected to decline in 2024.  Exchange rate pressures are also expected to reduce significantly with the smooth functioning of foreign exchange market.”

He  told the committee members that the unification of the exchange rate windows in June 2023, had ushered in a new approach to the management of the exchange rate , aimed at reducing arbitrage , rent seeking behaviour and speculation in the market.

” The policy aims at creating a market where the demand and supply of foreign exchange determine the exchange rate .

” The premium has narrowed and our focus on increasing the autonomous FX supply , would lead to more stability and further narrowing of the premium .
“Total trade in the third quarter of 2023 , stood at N18.804.68 billion. Exports were valued at N10.346.60 billion while total imports stood at N8.457.68 billion.
“This represents positive trade balance, which would lead to increase of the external reserves”, he said .

He however stated that due to domestic  prevailing factors, less revenues would be earned from oil exports in 2024 .

He said :” We expect less revenue from oil exports due to the production limit of 1.78 mbpd in 2024 .

“However, the country’s production has been below these thresholds. The budget benchmark for 2023 was 1.69mbpd , but the highest level of production during the year, was about 1.35mbpd in Q3 of 2023.

“The reasons for the underperformance of the oil production target , include , crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism , production shut – ins and divestments by major oil companies “.

The Chairman of the joint committee ,   Senator Tokunbo Abiru ( APC Lagos East) , said the interactive session was organised for statutory briefing by CBN in line with extant laws .

The co – Chairman of the committee , Hon. Bello el-Rufai , in his remarks , commended  the CBN governor and the entire management team on measures being put in place to stabilise the economy generally.