2024: A YEAR TO HOPE FOR SOME SANITY

Elections, wars and inflation will dominate, reckons Rajendra Aneja

“Never give up hope; after the rains, come the rainbows,” counsels my soulmate Patricia, when the night seems long. In 2024, we will learn to hope, though many countries will engage in bloody battles; others will fight poverty and inequality.

The Israel imbroglio, has side-lined the Russia-Ukraine war. Both these conflicts may drag through 2024. Over 400,000 people have died or been wounded in these battles. Generations of youngsters have perished.

Elsewhere, most global leaders will be busy securing their thrones. Forty nations go to the polls in 2024, including seven of the most populous nations like USA, Russia, India, etc. Fifty-one percent of the world, 4.17 billion people will elect new leaders. Generally, the incumbents will retain their jobs. Expect strongmen victors to further dent democracies.

Biden may just scrape through to the top global job. Americans are weary of fighting wars for others. They do not put boots on the ground anywhere. Just, armaments. Save your blushes, if Trump romps home. Then, global paradigms will change drastically. Putin will rejoice.

Xi will continue to rule China and confound the USA. Xi is a charmer. Hopefully, he will break the ice with Biden and dampen the new cold war, in a multi-polar world.

Putin will be beleaguered by the Ukraine war and Biden. He will secure his election and strengthen his fraternity with China, Iran and Syria.

Zelenskyy will struggle to collate adequate soldiers, missiles and guns to continue an attritive war. Ukraine should negotiate. The West is wearying of supporting its long war.

Cameron’s return from the political wilderness, will strengthen Sunak. Europe will play second fiddle to the USA and struggle to grow. Migrants will find many doors closing. 

Arab nations should broker a peace-solution to the Israel-Hamas combat. Hamas must learn to coexist with Israel. Israel cannot be wished away. Emotions run deep in the Middle East. Yemen will continue floundering.

Africa will struggle with debt servicing. Africa desperately needs continuous electricity, motorable roads, skilled workers and eliminating wasteful subsidies. It also needs to boost its vaccine-producing abilities, to manage future pandemics. Nigeria should focus on controlling inflation.

Modi will return to his job. His opponents are fragmented. Pakistan’s politics will continue to flounder. Aan Suu Kyi, 78 years, languishes in a prison in Myanmar. All the Kings men and United Nations, cannot rescue this petite lady in distress. 

Social media will generate fake news, in countries electing new sultans. Politics is turning poisonous and acrimonious by the day. Expect copious social media blasphemes, cash-handouts and mud-slinging. We will scuffle to ferret the truth.

Sluggish Economies. With guns blazing in Gaza and Ukraine and electioneering all-around, economic growth will be neglected. The global economy will grow at a pedantic 2.5 percent. American and European economies will scuffle at around 1.8 percent.

Dubai will flourish, luring rich Russians and Indians. Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince, Mohammed Salman, aspires, to emulate UAE’s success. He will have to manage the theocracy.

India at six percent growth and China at five percent, will lead global growth. However, economists, are wary of the opaqueness of these numbers. The impressive growth rates, do not trickle down to the people.

Global inflation could decline from 6.8 per cent to 5.2 percent. It will provide scant relief. In Europe, the poor choose between heating their homes or eating. In India, with six percent inflation, the poor are recycling leftover foods and old clothes. The burden of ever-rising prices is crushing. In shining India, 67 percent of the population, i.e. 800 million, will receive free rice and wheat every month, for the next five years.

Expect oil prices to hover at USD 80-85 per barrel, unless Arabs unite against Israel’s war. Gold prices could touch USD 2,400 per ounce. In an ambiguous world, it is durable. Stock markets will tiptoe upwards; however, expect no windfalls. 

The world will continue to be inequitable. The richest ten percent , own 53 percent of the wealth. According to Oxfam, since 1995, the top one percent of the world’s rich have garnered 20 times more wealth, than the bottom 50 percent. About a billion people in 110 countries, live in poverty.

Covid-19 augmented poverty amongst the lower-incomed. This means less food, poor health care and more deaths amongst the poor. Over 110 million people are stateless. Britain tussles to send its refugees to Rwanda.

Depositing cash in the banks of the lower incomed, as Brazil and India do, is a band-aid remedy. Teaching a man to bake bread, is better than distributing free bread.

Innovations. Artificial intelligence (AI), will be another giant leap for mankind, if harnessed. Uncontrolled, it will impact livelihoods. Governments must understand and regulate this new pandora’s box.

Pathbreaking innovations which have enriched the lives of common citizens, like the laptop, mobile phones, OTT, etc., are contributions of technologists. They have more wonders on the plate, like technologies to lengthen human life and pioneer brain implants.

Unless we manage the fumes from our factories and cars, fate will overtake us. Hopefully, environment, sustainability, governance (ESG), will not remain corporate slogans. Corporations will insist that employees work in offices. If you want to get promoted, the boss must see you.

Olympics and Oscars. The Paris Olympics, will entertain us, with a focus on excellence and skill. The 13th African Games, will sparkle in Ghana. Cricketing countries will compete for the T-20 World Cup.

“Oppenheimer” and its protagonist Cillian Murphy should hold Oscar statuettes. Hopefully, we will see Emily Blunt in an intense role like “Sicario”. Taylor Swift and Lady Gaga will continue ruling.

So, expect 2024 to be lacquered with blistering elections, continuing wars in Ukraine and Gaza, eroding democracies and inflation.

2024 is a leap year. Patricia, my soulmate, was born on 29 February. She is planning a rollicking party. However, she says, “Only if there are cease-fires in Ukraine and Gaza.” Good girl. That’s why, I love her.

Happy New Year.

 Aneja was the Managing Director of Unilever Tanzania. He is an alumnus of Harvard Business School and the author of books entitled, “Rural Marketing across Countries and “Business Express”. He is a Management Consultant