How Nigeria’s AFCON 2023 Loss Shook African Sports Betting Arena

Counting on strong favouritism shown towards Nigeria by pre-match predictions and algorithms, many believed their bet on the Super Eagles was safe, but they were in the bewildered company of those who lost money, writes Davidson Abraham 

Though the AFCON 2023 held in Ivory Coast might have been concluded, its impact is felt continent-wide and beyond for a ‘not so sporting reason’ as its final on February 11, 2024, was a dramatic affair, with underdogs ‘the Elephants’ of Ivory Coast defying the odds to defeat the ‘Super Eagles’ of Nigeria 2-1. This unexpected outcome sent shockwaves through the African sports betting arena, causing significant financial losses for many stakeholders.

Nigeria’s defeat hit individual bettors and punters hard, with many collectively losing hundreds of millions of dollars across the continent and beyond. This was due to the strong favouritism shown towards Nigeria by pre-match predictions and algorithms, leading many to believe it was a safe bet. Even Ivorian fans, who might have logically followed these expert opinions, found themselves in the bewildered company of those who lost money through betting on African football’s showpiece event.

Sports betting companies feel the pinch

African sports betting companies were not spared either. Many had placed bets in foreign currencies with larger international firms, and Nigeria’s loss also resulted in substantial financial losses for them. This highlights the global sports betting industry’s interconnectedness and susceptibility to major upsets.

Were there winners?

While the majority of stakeholders experienced financial losses, a smaller group profited from Nigeria’s defeat. Ivory Coast supporters or neutral ‘irrational fans’ who placed wagers on Ivory Coast’s victory likely celebrated significant wins. Additionally, sports betting companies that offered higher odds on Ivory Coast’s win would have seen a financial boost from Nigeria’s loss to the Hosts.

Beyond finances: The impact on confidence and trust

The AFCON final’s outcome has broader implications beyond just financial losses. The surprise result has shaken the confidence of many bettors who rely on predictions and algorithms. It serves as a reminder that even the most seemingly safe bets can go wrong, and upsets are inherent to the nature of sports. This could lead to a shift in betting behaviour, with punters becoming more cautious or seeking alternative information sources before placing their wagers.

In conclusion, Nigeria’s AFCON final loss significantly impacted the African sports betting arena. While the majority of stakeholders experienced financial losses, there were also some winners. The event has also shaken the confidence of many bettors and raised questions about the reliability of predictions and algorithms. As the dust settles, it will be interesting to see how this unexpected outcome and experience impacts African sports betting on an individual level.