Rystad: Global Oil Consumption to Reach Record 105m bpd in 2024

Global oil consumption is now likely to reach a record high level of 105 million barrels per day in 2024, with oil service segments running at full capacity to meet the call, Rystad, an energy research company has said.

But in a note from the firm, it stated that on the one hand, the peak is lower than what was anticipated a few years ago, and in that respect it is a positive signal for global warming.

On the other hand, however, it explained that the bullish oil market can be interpreted as an ill omen for meeting climate targets.

Though Nigeria has set 2060 as the year it intends to hit net zero carbon emissions, it has also maintained that it will use gas as its transition fuel and accelerate the exploration and exploitation of its crude for development.

Either way, current market sentiments, it said, are very positive for the global oil industry and economic returns are at record highs.

For context, it stated that oil consumption in 2019 averaged 100.6 million bpd, explaining that the pace of growth recorded from 2016 to 2019 had been maintained in ensuing years, consumption in 2024 would have reached 108 million bpd.

“But that trajectory was derailed by Covid-19, which took down oil consumption by more than 11 billion barrels – or on average 6 million bpd for the five-year period from the beginning of 2020 through 2024.

“Travel activity plummeted and sparked a structural change in business travel through greater adoption of virtual meetings. Seen in this context, current oil consumption levels are relatively low, and the impact of the pandemic has been beneficial for the climate,” it stressed.

Moreover, the supply side’s ability to deliver, it explained, has protected the global economy from a potentially devastating price increase that would hurt poor people the most.

“Here, we must acknowledge that the only practical way to end the oil age is to substitute oil in end-user applications, while the supply side must deliver on the ask,” Rystad added.