CONTENDING WITH THE HEAT WAVE
The predictions serve as a warning to all to be prepared
Most states in Nigeria are currently experiencing an unprecedented heat wave with a burning sensation that perhaps fits the description of hell. This is fuelled by climate change, according to scientists. Besides, we are in the dry season, which is between October and April, with March being the hottest month. During this season, there are fewer rainfalls and midday temperatures sometimes reach 100F (38C). The highest temperatures are usually seen between February and April during the dry season and are called the hot season. But there is no doubt that there is an abnormality to the heat.
In its Seasonal Climate Prediction document unveiled last week February 2024 which covers January – May 2024, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMET) warns that the situation may not get better soon. The predicted day and night-time temperatures are departures from the normal for the five critical months of January, February, March, April, and May. Nighttime temperatures across Nigeria in March 2024 are expected to range from 17°C to 26°C. The lowest nighttime temperature of 17°C is expected over Plateau State, while the highest value of more than 23°C is expected over most parts of the country. Warmer than normal nighttime temperatures are expected in various parts of the country in the northern, as well as southern states. The north-central states are expected to experience normal night-time temperatures, while the FCT and its environs are expected to be cooler than normal in the nighttime.
The maximum temperature in April 2024, is predicted to be in the range of 31°C to 43°C for all the states of the country. Plateau, Oyo, Osun and the coastal states are anticipated to record the least maximum temperatures of 31°C to 34°C. Warmer-than-normal daytime temperatures are expected across the country, except for parts of Jigawa, Bauchi, and Borno States where normal daytime temperatures are expected. Also, below-normal temperature is expected over Yobe State. The 2024 prediction shows that in July there is likelihood of a severe dry spell that may persist for more than 15 days. Moderate (16 days) dry spell in central and mild dry spell in Ogun, Osun, Edo, Enugu, Anambra, and northern Cross River are anticipated during the period.
This January was the warmest on record, according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) in its report on 15 February 2024. “The record-breaking trend seen for much of 2023 has continued in 2024, with January being the hottest January on record,” the report stated. “It is the eighth month in a row that is the warmest on record for the respective time of the year. Sea surface temperatures have been record-high for 10 consecutive months.”
The occurrence of 2024 Little Dry Spell (LDS) is projected to occur between late July and early August, while a longer break in rainfall (LDS) is predicted over Kwara and Lagos States with a duration of more than 27 days. Some parts of Oyo, Ogun, Ekiti, and Lagos are likely to have a low to moderate event with a coverage of about 18-27 days. Ondo, Edo, and some adjoining areas in Kogi State may experience shorter LDS.
These predictions, according to NiMET, serve as an early warning tool to stakeholders and the general public for timely preparedness and anticipatory action against weather and climate-related hazards down to local and hard-to-reach communities. NiMet said the heat could cause “dehydration, fainting, chicken pox disease, measles, heat rash, weakness of the body, slight fever, dry lips, heat-related illnesses, respiratory issues, and increased vulnerability to chronic conditions.” We hope that health authorities across the country will take the NiMET projections very seriously and begin to plan for how to mitigate the challenges.
