Eeny Meeny Miny Moe: The Nigerian Conundrum

Otelemate J. Georgewill

Nigeria’s history is laced with broken promises. Political leaders promise and the citizenry is invariably let down. Recently she has had to deal with several difficult issues, including rising crime rates, collapsing currency, chronic inflation, and the consistent increase in fuel prices. The country is on the edge of chaos as President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration struggles to address these complex problems. Although some of these urgent issues have been addressed with commendable effort, many Nigerians wonder as to the effectiveness of the government’s plans, as it appears to be a game of chance-trial and error.

In May 2023, upon taking office alongside President Tinubu, Vice President Kashim Shettima warned Nigerians to expect a potentially difficult start, stating, “The starting point might not be rosy, let me be very honest with you”. He acknowledged the “albatross” of the oil subsidy and the detrimental “dual economic system” caused by multiple exchange rates, indicating the new administration’s awareness of the nation’s economic challenges. However, being aware of an illness is not the same as knowing how to remedy the ailment. “The Nigerian foreign exchange market is currently facing pressures from increased demands, causing a continuous decrease in the value of naira.” This Statement was made by Yemi Cardoso, the CBN governor when he was summoned by the lower chamber of the National Assembly over the state of the economy as well as the free fall of the naira. Cardoso, exasperated, explained that the apex bank has unveiled measures to address the persistent decline in the value of the naira, some of which have already been implemented, like the stringent regulations placed on banks and bureau de change foreign exchange transactions, which have recorded minute positive changes in the nation’s economic situation further that there was a fiscal side to the economic slate of issues.

The economy has been in decline for decades, culminating in inflation at 29%, exchange rates of N1700-$1 with the attendant protests on the streets and across virtual platforms. Inflation although the plight of everyone, disproportionately affects the weakest and most vulnerable members of society. Corruption mismanagement and sheer incompetence have dogged the country for ages. In reaction, the various regimes and administrations have done what they do best, talk. They then follow up with appointments, when they can be bothered, of economic advisers, advisory councils, and expert committees.  Despite government pledges to bolster security the crime rate continues to soar. Daily reports of kidnappings, banditry, and insurgencies continue to escalate create a sense of panic. The environment has taken on the feel of a game of Russian roulette. Even traditional rulers are not safe at least 2 are reported killed in the last 3 months. The ongoing criminal wave clearly demands a more robust and effective law enforcement strategy to ensure national safety.

Closely linked to the security question is the threat of extreme food shortages mostly caused by the farmer-herder crises in different parts of the country, which is making farming increasingly dangerous and hunger is a potent fuel for social unrest. These problems are made worse by the Naira’s depreciation against other currencies, which raises living expenses and reduces purchasing power. Despite the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) pronouncements and implementation of different monetary policies aimed at stabilizing the economy, most Nigerians are experiencing worrisome financial hardship. This alarming situation has been made worse by the removal of fuel subsidies, as people struggle to cope with skyrocketing fuel costs and their consequences for transportation, food costs, and living expenses in general. There is no question that the fuel subsidy had to go, but the process with which that was done left a lot to be desired. The road to hell, as they say, is paved with good intentions, and Nigerians have definitely hit Dante’s seventh circle of hell, trapped in a relentless cycle of hardship. The mitigation strategies, palliative approaches, so far have been a textbook case of how not to formulate and execute policy.

The government has responded to these difficulties by initiating a number of policies meant to “deal with the underlying causes of Nigeria’s problems”. “Efforts” it is said, are being made to promote indigenous industries, restructure agricultural policies, and execute security reforms to boost economic growth and lessen the negative impacts of the current situation. Critics, however, have labelled them amateurish, poorly thought through and pedestrian. The naysayers dispute their practicality and raise doubts about their effectiveness. To a student of history all this looks and sounds familiar. “We have heard these before” would be the refrain.

While government trumpets minor successes including measures against banditry and kidnapping and increased funding for governors, the overall strategy appears unclear to both observers and experts. The president recently acknowledged the country’s long-standing mismanagement and underutilisation of resources, attributing it to hindered economic growth. Yet government persists in following the path that led to this sorry pass hoping for a different result. Acknowledging the historical context, scepticism surrounds the recently established council of economic advisors, including prominent figures like Aliko Dangote and Bismarck Rewane. Critics question whether these individuals, some with past government ties, represent a genuine change or simply a case of “old wine in a new bottle.” Similar concerns exist regarding the government’s $10 billion foreign exchange initiative, seen by some as a desperate gamble – “playing roulette” – rather than a well-defined plan. The ghost of Margret Thatcher can lecture the current administration about the folly of currency defence. Comparisons are drawn to other nations facing similar challenges, where serious planning has replaced failed policies. The juxtaposition of announced plans with the current realities raises questions about whether the government is genuinely committed to effective solutions or simply engaging in a trial-and-error approach with unclear objectives, a children’s game of Eini Meeni Myni Mo.

Despite all the uncertainties, Nigerians still dare to be hopeful. There is a belief that between stakeholders and government, the people’s tenacity and inventiveness, there exists a pathway toward a long-term fix. The Nigerian people invest this hope in every president, and every regime. They ask; what other choice do we have? This time “it is the turn” of BAT, under him they/we dream that the present difficulties can be overcome and that we can come out stronger than before even in an atmosphere that is unfavourable for innovation, entrepreneurship, and social cohesion. No matter how bleak it seems, we are an optimistic people and we believe in miracles.

•Otelemate J. Georgewill PhD, is a Research Associate at the African Leadership Centre, King’s College London and a visiting scholar at the Centre for Public Policy Alternatives (CPPA).