NBS: Stakeholders Insist Rebasing Labour Force Data May Demotivate Job Creation Efforts

Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja

Some Nigerian economists yesterday argued that the recent rebasing of Nigeria’s unemployment data which saw its review from about 33.3 per cent to around 5 per cent, was capable of demotivating Nigeria’s policy makers’ push for job creation.

Speaking at a one-day sensitisation workshop on the revised methodology for the computation of labour force statistics in Nigeria in Abuja, the President Nigerian Economic Society (NES), Prof Adeola Adenikinju, argued that the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has not done enough to explain the rationale for its decision to the key users of its data.

The programme was organised by the Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (CSEA), headed by its Executive Director, Dr Chukwuma Onyekwena and supported by the NBS.

In August last year after rebasing the calculation of labour data, the NBS put the country’s unemployment rate at 4.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2023 and 5.3 per cent in Q4 2022.

The new figures which elicited a lot of reactions from organised labour and other Nigerians showed a significant drop from the 33.3 per cent for Q4, 2020 released in March, 2021 and suggested in some way that Nigeria was comparable to the US with an unemployment rate of 3.4 per cent and the UK with 4.2 per cent at the time.

But the NBS had argued that the new framework was informed by the best practices of the International Labour Organisation (ILO), stressing that in the past, it hadn’t considered anyone who worked less than 40 hours a week. This, it said, led to tens of millions being reported as unemployed in Nigeria.

But Adenikinju maintained that although there were reasons for the rebasing of the labour force data, there was need to fully explain it to decision makers.

“That story has to be told so that the policy makers are not under the illusion that we have 5 per cent unemployment. In the past, when you had 5 per cent unemployment, it’s full employment. At 5 per cent you can go and sleep.

“But if there’s national rate of unemployment at 5 per cent, it doesn’t give the politician the push. So we need to find a way of explaining that yes, a lot of people are working, but this kind of work that they are doing is not work,” he pointed out.

On his part, a professor of economics at the University of Calabar, Uchechi Ogbuagwu, noted that there was the need for a meeting between the town and the gown to align their thinking on the new development.

He stated that the point has to be made to policy makers that the 5 per cent does not represent the total unemployment figure in the country so as not to give them the impression that all is well with Nigeria.

“We must de-emphasise the number, because in statistics, it is not just the number, it is the meaning that you give to that number. Whenever you give that 5 per cent, you have to explain that it does not mean that Nigeria is okay.

“ They need to know that this 5 per cent is moving alongside the informal sector, indecent jobs, underpayment of people. So you must accompany it with that,” he added.

Also speaking, Senior Economist, World Bank, Osekhebhen Egbiremolen, stated that the bank needs data to work with, stressing that everything the bank does is based on evidence.

He highlighted the issues of skills mismatch wherein people with higher qualifications have to make do with what is available because the right jobs are not really available.

Earlier, Director of CSEA, Onyekwena, argued that by examining the unemployment, underemployment, labour force participation rates, and demographic breakdowns, stakeholders may identify areas of concern, diagnose root causes, and devise targeted interventions to address pressing issues and achieve long-term change.

“Understanding the labour market dynamics allows policymakers to devise strategies to stimulate job creation, boost workforce skills, and increase productivity, resulting in inclusive growth and reduced poverty and inequality,” he added.

Also at the event were the Statistician General of the Federation, Semiu Adeniran as well as the Director of Planning, Research and Statistics, National Directorate of Employment (NDE), Edmund Onwuliri, among several others.