The Sporadic Presidency

ENGAGEMENTS BY Chidi Amuta

No one can fairly accuse President Bola Tinubu of inaction or inactivity. On the job that he was elected to do, the man has been quite busy. On a daily basis, his office keeps rolling out innumerable appointments, setting up committees on nearly every subject and generally acting in response to changing national situations.  If an inventory of executive  actions and initiatives were the sole measure of an effective presidency, Mr. Tinubu would score highly on the scale of  presidential effectiveness. But something seems to be wrong somewhere with the strategy of governance on display. 

So far, there is a worrying disconnect between Mr. Tinubu’s copious exertions and any perceivable improvements  or tangible results in the situation of the country and the living conditions of the citizens. The more appointments and measures that tumble out of  the Aso Rock assembly line, the more desperate the conditions in the country get. Bandits and criminals are killing more people. The cry of anguish over hunger keeps increasing. The unemployment queues keep growing remain unaddressed as more and more multi national exist Nigeria. In general, there is a sense in which there is now an inverse relation between sporadic presidential actions and the positive outcomes that the people can feel.

As a consequence, a little over one year after its inception, the Tinubu presidency has struck an unusual consensus among Nigerians. Both the elite and the street people are united in a tentative verdict to the defining character of the administration. This presidency is sporadic and eclectic. It lacks a definite direction. It lacks a defining ideological complexion or character. A government that should be progressive by party identity is neither conservative nor populist social democratic. Given the ultra right wing identity of its key drivers, It is even subverting the interests if its supporting oligarchs. There is no coherent populist agenda either for a president who desperately craves populist accolades. The people cannot see where all this presidential activism is likely to lead the nation. Instead, they behold the lavish style of consumption of key government drivers and wonder what manner of democracy the nation has in place.

Yet there are certain features that cannot be denied. The president has been busy. On a daily basis, we learn of fresh initiatives. New policies are rolled out, fresh policies are churned out without any follow up executive  templates for effective implementation. A torrent of discordant actions, policies and knee jerk responses to critical national problems has begun to confuse keen observers. While Aso Rock panics, dithers and serially fumbles, the nation’s crises keep multiplying and the citizenry get more desperate and frustrated. Cumulatively, the disconnect has produced more political uncertainty and disquiet. We can see the looming political consequences are beginning to show up in the erosion of unity even among legislators of the ruling APC in the National Assembly.

In an apparent show of responsiveness to a self -inflicted economic crisis, the President has set up a series of committees. The first was filled with oligarchs of all hues ranging from manufacturers to banking moguls and sundry wheeler dealers. No one knows whether the committee ever met or came up with any concrete suggestions. A committee of state governors has been convened both under the aegis of the National Economic Council and other ad hoc platforms. When the administration discovered that oligarchs like Aliko Dangote were becoming critical of the policies of the Central Bank on interest rates, the President re-energized the dead committee of oligarchs as if they would lend government the secrets of their humongous wealth!

The Central Bank has in turn been busy churning out any number of circulars on nearly every  money related issue. A foreign exchange intervention regime has oscillated from distributing dollars among bureau de changes to starving the system of forex supplies. A task force has used EFCC, DSS, police and other goons to raid urban foreign exchange open markets to no avail.

On the matter of increasing and worsening poverty among the many, there have also been a number of knee jerk responses.  Figures of cash transfers and handouts to the most vulnerable have varied in the number of beneficiaries and target amounts. In between, a minister appointed to alleviate poverty through cash transfers has since been suspended for pocketing a chunk of the money meant for the poor and vulnerable. A slew of conflicting propositions on how many households to support and what amount of cash to transfer to these households. No one has demonstrated a credible basis for arriving at the statistics for these poverty alleviation cash transfers.

This presidency has ordered a distribution of food grains from the national strategic grains reserve  but hardly anyone seems to have seen the grains or located where the silos  are located and what they contain. An earlier initiative had casually doled out N5 billion to each of the states and the FCT for the provision of palliatives to vulnerable citizens. Some of that money went into the procurement of rice for distribution to poor citizens. Some of the rice has been sighted at riotous distribution centres. Scrambles for affordable rice at some of the centres has led to fatalities and injuries among the scrambling citizens.

The latest initiative on the worsening hunger situation is the proposal to embark on a short term food importation  measure. The estimate is that the importation of food items like rice, beans and wheat at concessionary duty rates over a six month period would lower the prices of these basic food items while increased efforts in agricultural production begin to fill the gap. Yet there are enough conflicting measures in the existing policy environment that may cancel out the benefits of the food importation strategy. High gasoline prices continue to wreak havoc on transportation costs. High costs of energy and other services are likely to impact the market prices of food items either homegrown or imported.  Even the cost of the imported food will be subject to the current fluctuations in the exchange rate regime.

The expanding epidemic of insecurity around the country has similarly produced a staccato of presidential initiatives. Predictably, each new incident of loss of lives or bandit attacks has been greeted by the usual presidential bluff about “bringing the culprits to book”. Hardly any arrests have been made anywhere in the country let alone prosecution. A hasty assembly of governors and security chiefs has decided to institute a much discussed State Police system. The initiative seems to be embroiled in controversy and political ping pong to a point of death.

Estimations of matters considered urgent and important by this presidency has varied as well. Even more dismal has been the sense of prioritization on matters deserving immediate attention. At some point it was the reversion to the old 1960s National Anthem which the National Assembly rushed through a legislative microwave oven.

Multiple emergency supplementary budget proposals have been similarly rushed through a rubber stamp legislature leading to the present situation where the nation is literally operating an unparalleled four budgets in the same financial year. This fiscal cacophony has enabled the administration to pick and choose from a supermarket of unnecessary luxury expenditures ranging from SUVs to yachts, luxury jets and official residential villas.

Beneath the barrage of often confusing initiatives, one perceives a certain  desperation on the part of the president to court a populist appeal. A few measures are fuelled by a desperation for popularity among key segments of the populace. For instance, a students loan scheme has been put in place more to court the acceptance of students and youth with scant attention to how the loans would be recovered or how the beneficiaries would find employment on graduation.  Little or no thought seems to have gone into the sustainability of the programme.

Tinubu happens to be the type of politician who wants to be admired and even loved by the masses. With an unmistakable imperial disposition, he probably wants to be worshipped hence his intolerance of opposing voices in the National Assembly. He probably wants to be loved by a mass audience of clapping and hailing appreciative fellow citizens and devotees. But somehow, hardly anyone outside his family and the circle of his political devotees is truly deeply in love with Tinubu. Because his policies and actions have deepened the misery and desperation among the people, the sentiments that attend the president’s name are currently mostly those of dislike,  utter disdain and even open revulsion laced with unprintable side jabs about dodgy certificates, questionable origins and doubtful wealth.

In all fairness, it is always a tricky walk for a leader to insist on unpopular but necessary policy measures and also crave popular admiration and accolade at the same time. Both hardly go together. But if the unpopular and bitter policy shocks lead to an improvement in the living conditions for the people, the leader could earn healthy recognition and appreciation. Also, if the shock therapy is directed at a clearly defined positive goal, people could be patient for a while. But if the misery deepens and hardship spreads, the victorious leader could turn into a virtual villain, a monster in the public square. From a random sampling of public perceptions of Mr. Tinubu and his presidency both on the streets, in homes and especially on the social media, the honeymoon seems to be over for him. The season of harsh judgment has since begun and could be politically costly for him by the time he approaches mid term.

President Tinubu’s present style of episodic and disjointed governance is beset with many liabilities. There could be some bright spots along the way but too many ill -advised measures could send the economy into a tailspin. We could hobble through to four years without knowing exactly where we set out to go.  Some of the hasty, isolated and uncoordinated policies could cancel each other out and create more complex problems than the administration set out to solve. In the end, it is in Tinubu’s best political self -interest to course correct now before it is too late. It is time to rejig his team and introduce method and direction to the present madness.