Despite Pressing Nigeria to Abandon Fossil Fuels, Wealthy Nations Lead in Global Oil, Gas Expansion

•Five countries responsible for 67% of all new oil licences since 2020 

•US hands out 1,453 new oil, gas licences under Biden

Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja

Despite piling pressure on Nigeria and other African oil-producing nations to abandon fossil fuels, the US and the UK are leading a stampede of expansion in spite of their climate commitments, new data shared exclusively with the Guardian UK has revealed.

The new oil and gas field licences forecast to be awarded across the world this year are on track to generate the highest level of emissions since those issued in 2018, as heatwaves, wildfires, drought and floods cause death and destruction globally, according to analysis of industry data by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD).

The 11.9 billion tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions – which is roughly the same as China’s annual carbon pollution – resulting over their lifetime from all current and upcoming oil and gas fields forecast to be licensed by the end of 2024 would be greater than the past four years combined.

Several delegations from Europe and America have visited Nigeria in recent years to convince the country on the need to tone down on its push for hydrocarbons production and embrace cleaner energy sources.

But the Guardian UK report said that the projection includes licences awarded as of June 2024, as well as the oil and gas blocks open for bidding, under evaluation or planned.

It said that fossil fuel firms are ploughing more money into developing new oil and gas sites than at any time since the 2015 Paris climate deal, when the world’s governments agreed to take steps to cut emissions and curb global heating.

The world’s wealthiest countries are economically best placed – and obliged under the Paris accords – to lead the transition away from fossil fuels to cleaner energy sources.

But the high-capacity countries with a low economic dependence on fossil fuels are spearheading the latest drilling frenzy despite dwindling easy-to-reach reserves, handing out 825 new licences in 2023, the largest number since records began.

Classic “petrostates” such as Saudi Arabia or Russia – which rely heavily on oil and gas revenues to balance their budgets – have also faced criticism for slowing action on the climate crisis.

 Yet countries including the UK, the US, Canada, Norway and Australia are increasingly being thought of by some experts as the “other petrostates” , given they have access to financial and technological resources that would make the energy transition less disruptive.

While they are often portrayed as climate leaders on the world stage, these five wealthy countries are responsible for more than two-thirds (67 per cent) of all new oil and gas licences issued globally since 2020.

Under the Joe Biden administration, the US has handed out 1,453 new oil and gas licences, accounting for half of the total globally and 83 per cent of all licences handed out by wealthy nations. This is 20 per cent more than during the term of Donald Trump, who has promised to “drill, baby, drill” should he return to the White House.

The oil and gas industry continues to invest big in political influence in petrostates, spending $1.25 billion (£1 billion) on lobbying in Washington and more than $650 million (£504 million) in campaign contributions over the past decade, according to Open Secrets.

 The UK is forecast to hand out a record 72 oil and gas licences this year, which could result in an estimated 101 million tonnes of planet-warming pollution.

Meanwhile, the UK handed out more licences than any other country in May, although it is China, the world’s leading carbon emitter, that is forecast to approve the most oil and gas blocks in the rest of 2024. The UK’s newly elected Labour government has pledged to stop new drilling, but it’s unclear whether the glut of licences doled out by the outgoing Conservative party can be cancelled.

The new analysis of Rystad industry and government data by the IISD also shows that over the past decade, new licences issued by high-capacity, low-dependency countries including the US, the UK, Canada, Australia and Norway are estimated to have contributed five times more greenhouse gas emissions between 2014 and 2023 than all other oil- and gas-producing countries combined.

 The US, which has become the world’s largest oil and gas producer by a huge margin in recent years, led the way in 2023 by issuing a record 758 new licences for extraction projects – almost as many as the previous three years combined. The total number of projected licences by the US for 2024 would lead to an estimated 397 million tonnes of emissions.

 The UK is forecast to hand out 72 oil and gas licences this year, which would result in an estimated 101 million tonnes of planet-warming pollution, a 50-year high.

 Norway is projected to hand out 80 oil and gas licences this year, resulting in 771m tonnes of greenhouse gas pollution – threatening the biggest contribution to global emissions since 2009 and the equivalent of putting 183 million new gasoline-powered cars on the road.

 Australia is forecast to award 20 new licences in 2024, which if it happens could generate an estimated 217m tonnes of carbon pollution in the long term – the most since 2009 and more than the past five years combined.

 The amount spent by major oil and gas companies on exploring and developing new wells has climbed significantly since the Covid-19 pandemic, with $302 billion to be spent on well development this year, the most in a decade.

The UK, Norwegian and Australian governments disputed some of the figures and defended their climate policies.

The glut of new oil and gas activity comes as July is on track to be the 14th hottest consecutive month on record, as communities across the world grapple with deadly extreme weather and slow-onset climate disasters such as sea level rise and melting glaciers. The last decade was the hottest ever recorded, with 2023 the single hottest year.

But the oil and gas rush, led by the richest countries, risks demolishing hopes that the world can stay within internationally agreed-upon limits aimed at preventing catastrophic heatwaves, wildfires, flooding and other impacts.

The world’s consumption of fossil fuels climbed to a record high last year even as investment into clean energy such as solar and wind started to eclipse coal, oil and gas.

The newly licensed reserves in rich countries – which are smaller and harder to reach because the larger reserves have already been exploited – could eventually generate 172 million tonnes of CO2, the equivalent that would be produced by 43 new coal plants.

Those are the same countries that are also ploughing ahead with huge tax giveaways for industry-led “solutions” like carbon capture and storage and “blue” hydrogen that independent experts say are inefficient, unjust and economically damaging.

The data revealed a deep-seated inequity – and a key climate justice issue – that developing countries have for years tried to raise at the annual UN climate talks.

 In order to honour their legally binding obligations under the Paris agreement, developed countries must go first when it comes to phasing out fossil fuels, starting immediately, and stopping expansion plans, the report said.