THE ROAD TO KENYA IS BUMPY

Early signs show that the ongoing protests may not end well, writes BOLAJI ADEBIYI

It may be too early to review the protests that began yesterday despite spirited efforts by the federal government to persuade the faceless organisers to stand down. On Wednesday, George Akume, Secretary to the Government of the Federation, led four ministers, Abubakar Bagudu, Budget and Economic Planning; Wale Edun, Finance and Coordinating Minister for the Economy; Mohammed Idris, Minister of Information and National Orientation; and Dele Alake, Minister of Solid Minerals Development, to address the world press in Abuja on the efforts of the government to better the lives of the people.

They said that the federal government needed to make bold decisions if the macroeconomic stability needed for massive local and foreign investment inflow were to be achieved to turn the economy around and put it on the path of growth and development. Those decisions included the twin-economic policy reforms of petrol subsidy removal and the merger of the forex rates, which have occasioned high inflation and price spikes, resulting in the high cost of living that has generated resentment among the citizens.

But they insisted that the measures were correct and that the attendant short-term discomfort was anticipated, leading to the promulgation of several palliative programmes intended to ease the ongoing pains, which they explained were temporary. They reeled out the alleviation measures even as they contended that the economic reforms were bearing fruits judging from the reports of global rating agencies, foreign reserves balance and foreign direct investment inflow.

The success of that last-minute rally to persuade the protest organisers to stay off the streets as threatened yesterday could be measured by the outcome of the first day of what was supposed to be a mass action against the negative impact of the President Bola Tinubu administration’s economic reforms. In some places, the protests took place without a moment. According to media reports, most southern states were calm except Lagos, Oyo, and Rivers. Even those that had people on the streets were without any serious incidents.

But things were bad in Plateau, Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, Sokoto and Borno. At the last count, the unofficial body count was 16 in Borno, four in Kano, two in Kaduna and two in Plateau. Although skirmishes were in some parts of the Federal Capital Territory, no serious incident was recorded. The violence in these states confirmed the federal government’s apprehension about the protest. It had warned against the protest not because it wanted to curtail the citizens’ freedom of expression but because it had the premonition that criminal elements could manipulate the exercise of the right to carry out their nefarious activities. Now that it has happened exactly as the government predicted, was it worth it? Not really.

Notwithstanding the deaths, many businesses were closed yesterday as people stayed away from work for fear of violence. Billions of naira were shut in by people who complained about the adverse effects of the economic reforms of a government that came into office on the back of a renewed hope agenda. What were the complaints? The protesters interviewed complained about hardships arising from inflation due to high energy costs and the floating of the naira. “We are hungry, Tinubu; please, come and rescue us,” they cried. Their solution is to restore the subsidy and ensure food affordability.

Yet, a day before, the FG, through the SGF and the ministers, acknowledged the pains as temporary discomforts and reeled out palliative measures taken by the government to alleviate the suffering. Explanations were offered on why the economic reforms were imperative and why the gains made so far had to be consolidated so that a better future could be assured for Nigerians. So, was a protest leading to deaths, loss of man-hours, and huge resources necessary to draw attention to a problem that the government was already tackling?

Martin Luther King Jr, that fiery and legendary American civil rights leader, championed the concept of mass action to seek redress and gave four tests for genuine mass action. The agitators, he said, must demonstrate a grievance and that they do not intend to use the mass action to cause confusion or revenge; they must show that they have exhausted all methods of engaging the government, including negotiations and petitions; having found all those methods and doors to be closed, they must show that they do not intend to cause injustice to others, and they must show that they have a clear programme of salvaging the society without causing injustice to others.

Weighed against these tests, it is difficult to see how the ongoing protests fit. Yes, they have a genuine grievance as the high cost of living has become choking. However, shutting down the economy through the demonstrations was bound to hurt other citizens who ordinarily wanted to go about their businesses to survive the harsh conditions. For weeks, the government sought to engage the promoters in their grievances but failed because they were faceless. Meanwhile, whoever they are, they have not shown any workable alternative to the reforms.

As the second day of the protests kicks in today, how the organisers intend to achieve their demands on the streets without negotiating with the government remains to be seen. More important is the need to de-escalate the violence and tension instituted in a couple of states.

In the meantime, it is necessary to commend the federal government, some state governors and the security forces for the restraint shown so far. The President has continued to seek dialogue even when he insists that his economic reforms were correct and necessary for the revival and long-term growth of the economy. Some governors maintained the peace in their domain, holding meetings with stakeholders and appealing to them to stay the course. Some police chiefs addressed the protesters and provided security cover for them.       

It can only be hoped that reason will prevail in the coming days and the promoters of the protests will go to the table for a much more rewarding negotiation on their demands. Otherwise, if they escalate the mass action and things worsen, they might find that the Kenya example they often refer to may not pay them. As Wycliffe Khaemba, a Kenyan activist Methodist bishop, warned on Wednesday in an advisory to Nigerians, the protests were not an option because the ones in the central African country did not end well.

Adebiyi is the media assistant to the Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Abubakar Bagudu