Shehu Musa Yar’Adua Foundation

AFTERMATH OF END BAD GOVERNANCE PROTESTS

The aftermath of the 10-day “EndBadGovernance” protests has conveyed three clear messages: two to President Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and one to the senior members of his administration from the North—notably Vice President Kashim Shettima, National Security Adviser Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, Secretary to the Government of the Federation George Akume, Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin, Speaker of the House of Representatives Tajudden Abbas, and others.

Firstly, despite the protests in the North escalating into widespread looting, arson, underage participation, and political exploitation and hijack, they have sent a clear message to President Tinubu. His two key policies—the removal of fuel subsidies and the floating of the naira—are deeply unpopular and have sent many people into poverty.

Secondly, the Tinubu administration has squandered crucial political goodwill in the North. Beyond the economic hardships, this loss of political support in the region is significant, as it could impact Tinubu’s prospects for a second term. The Tinubu/Shettima ticket was, in fact, built on this very foundation. Furthermore, the protests have taken on three unique political faces nationwide: they were a form of revolt in the upper North, the Southeast remained silent, while the Southwest found itself in a catch-22 situation.

The third message from the aftermath of the protests is directed at the senior members of the Tinubu administration who hail from the North. They now face the Herculean task of restoring the Tinubu government’s goodwill in the North. To do so, they must address two critical issues. A deep and unbiased look at the “EndBadGovernance” protests in the North reveals not only a message to Abuja but a kind of internal revolt—an uprising against ‘oneself,’ so to speak. Furthermore, Yobe, Bauchi, Borno, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, and Kaduna States experienced the worst violence during the protests. Interestingly, a 2024 report shows that these states are among the top northern states with the highest rates of out-of-school children: Yobe (62.9%), Bauchi (55.7%), Borno (54.2%), Jigawa (51.1%), Katsina (45.9%), Kano (41.6%), and Kaduna (40.6%).

Northerners who are senior members of the Tinubu government must find a way, before 2027, to not only convince but also help Tinubu implement policies that will lift people out of poverty. A quick approach is to leverage the Dangote Refinery and other private and state-owned refineries. Given that Nigeria’s daily fuel consumption hovers around 45–50 million litres, the government should step up its programme to boost crude production specifically for local refineries, allocating it to them in naira and at a lower cost. This would lead to more affordable fuel prices, eliminate the need for imports, and save foreign exchange. Furthermore, to be fair to the Tinubu government, it inherited Nigeria’s finances in the ‘red’. Tinubu has two options to get the books into the blue—the hard and the simple options. Tinubu opted for the simple option: remove the fuel subsidy and float the naira. The hard way, which is the more sustainable one, involves fixing all the state-owned refineries, increasing crude production to at least two million litres per day, supplying local refineries with cheap crude to translate to affordable pump prices, and boosting food production by helping genuine farmers with farm implements, soft financing, and extension services.

For the northern elites, both in government and outside, they must not only read between the lines but comprehend them well. For example, the northern members of Tinubu’s government must understand that the government’s public relations efforts for Northern consumption are currently communicated in a ‘language’ that the masses do not understand. This approach requires not just a revitalization of strategies but a complete overhaul of its managers and a redesign of its medium.

Zayyad I. Muhammad, Abuja