Will Bankole Adeoye Be Able to Keep His Position?

Bankole Adeoye, the African Union Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace, and Security (PAPS), is at a critical juncture as the 2025 elections approach. The man has played a pivotal role in promoting African unity and security since assuming office in March 2021. But there is a challenge before him: it is one that might see his ship of influence overturned by contenders seeking to capitalize on perceived shortcomings in his tenure.

Adeoye’s track record as PAPS Commissioner has been a mix of achievements and disappointments. While he has been a vocal advocate for African solutions to African problems, his tenure has also been marked by some unresolved conflicts and criticisms over the pace of implementing peace and security measures.

These issues have provided ammunition for his rivals, who argue that fresh leadership is needed to tackle the continent’s persistent challenges. But the upcoming elections will undoubtedly test Adeoye’s ability to retain his position. This must be taken into serious consideration by his supporters, even though it is widely acknowledged that his extensive experience, including previous roles as Nigeria’s Permanent Representative to the AU and UNECA, and Ambassador to Ethiopia, gives him a strong foundation.

The proverb “A man’s reputation is like fine China, easily broken and not easily repaired” may well apply here, as Adeoye’s detractors focus on the gaps in his leadership. Of course, against this focus, his supporters point to his efforts in building synergy across Africa for good governance, durable peace, and sustainable development.

The argument from this side is that Adeoye’s vision for Africa, particularly through initiatives like the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) and the African Governance Architecture (AGA), remains crucial for the continent’s future. But critics are quick to ask if these accomplishments are enough to overshadow the criticisms he faces.

The political landscape within the African Union is complex, and regional interests often play a significant role in determining leadership outcomes. Adeoye’s challengers, who come from other regions of the continent, are likely to leverage their local support to unseat him. As the saying goes, “A tree is known by its fruit,” and the upcoming elections will demonstrate whether Adeoye’s contributions have borne sufficient fruit to secure him another term.