Russia in W’Africa: Why Nigeria’s Concerns and Perspective Should Be Taken Seriously

Edgar Githua

Nigeria stands tall as a colossus on the Africa continent. It is not only the most populous country on the continent, but it also commands a lot of respect and wields undeniable influence. Its leaders command regional and global attention. It possesses one of the fasted growing economies on the continent with immense potential for investment opportunities.

Militarily, it is respected regionally and has proven itself invaluable in West Africa’s regional security architecture. In sum, Nigeria is special, a power to recon within West Africa, a vanguard of the region, and to many countries in West Africa, a capable big brother. Nigeria is however worried about Russia’s intentions and motives within the region and on the continent. Several issues inform its’ apprehension.

Broken Promises

Nigeria and Russia enjoy cordial diplomatic relations that unfortunately have not realised the dividends that Nigeria expected from this long-standing relationship. Russia has always viewed Africa as a continent that enables it to keep an eye on Europe from the South, as it does the same in the East from Eastern Europe. This relationship, however, has been characterised by a string of broken promises that have spanned several years and needs re-examining.

Russia has always seen Nigeria as an ally that would allow it to get a foothold into the African continent. It begun cultivating its relationship with Nigeria during the 1960’s but did not make any inroads because Nigeria was careful not to strain its relations with the West. Russia was only able to gain a foothold into Nigeria when it helped Nigeria during the civil war of 1967-1970. Russian weapons helped Nigeria defeat the Separatists who threatened the unity of the nation. Despite repeated supply of weapons to Nigeria over the years, western ideological orientation ingrained in Nigerian leadership, successfully kept Russian influence at bay.

Nigeria is however sceptical about the varied promises that Russia has made to Nigeria over the years. Despite numerous bilateral agreements signed between the two countries, a lot of broken promises characterise the relations between these two nations. President Olusegun Obasanjo attempted to re-kindle Nigerian- Russo relations when he visited Moscow in 2001. Numerous agreements were signed that touched on interstate cooperation. Numerous promises on various bilateral projects were made and never fulfilled.

Other promises made during the visit of President Dmitry Medvdev to Nigeria in June 2009 also never materialised. Talks surrounding the establishment of a petrochemical plant, nuclear energy collaboration, and oil exploration remained shrouded in mystery. 

Another major project that Nigeria and Russia agreed to collaborate on was on nuclear energy. In an agreement signed in 2017, Russia agreed to build and manage a nuclear power plant in Nigeria to produce electricity. This agreement however was never actualised as Moscow kept quiet and delayed in effecting the project. New negotiations on the same nuclear power plant project were undertaken by the Nigerian Foreign Minister Yusuf Tuggar in 2024 but have yet to be finalized showing that Russia is an unreliable development partner not only for Nigeria but other African countries.

Regional Influence of Russia in the Sahel

Nigeria is also worried about the erosion of democratic ideals within the West Africa region specifically the Sahel. Russia’s influence in the Sahel has encouraged the entrenchment of undemocratic ideals as exemplified by the events in Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, and the Central African Republic. The rise of Islamic fundamentalism and jihadists groups created a security challenge that Russia exploited. Using its Wagner Group now Afrika Corps, Russia supports military juntas that overthrew democratically elected governments. These regimes have embraced Russia in a symbiotic relationship that sees Russia provide security in exchange for illegally acquired minerals.

These resources have been exploited by Russia to among other issues fund its war in Ukraine at the expense of the local populations. These local populations continue to suffer and languish in extreme poverty as leaders illegally propped up by Russia also further enrich themselves.

Diminishing influence of ECOWAS due to Russia’s influence on AES

Nigeria is staring in dismay as the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) loses influence in the West African region due to the rise of the newly formed Alliance of Sahel States (AES). Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have charted a new course and broken away from ECOWAS. Russia’s influence over these three states has driven a wedge in the regional bloc that has overseen and managed the affairs on West Africa. Nigeria and the region is greatly concerned that gains achieved through ECOWAS will be eroded, setting the region back substantially. In essence Russia has proven that its presence is detrimental to regional integration in Africa. This continues to generate great concern and attempts at reconciling AES to ECOWAS have not been successful.  Russia is happy to pull the AES cover in order to increase its anti-western influence in the region.

Nigeria has a lot of influence within the ECOWAS community and commands respect as the biggest economy in the region. It needs to play a leading role in pointing out the ills and negative impact that Russia has had within the West African region. This way countries in the region will raise their respective guard as they engage with Russia or any of its affiliates. Through a concerted call to action, ECOWAS will move to consolidate the gains it has made in the region but minimising Russias influence within its members.

• Dr. Githua is an International Relations, Diplomacy, and Security Analyst from Strathmore University