Edo’s Three Horse Race: How the Candidates Stand

Adibe Emenyonu in Benin City

Eligible voters in Edo State will go to the polls on Saturday, September 21, to elect a new governor that will take over from the incumbent, Godwin Obaseki, who will complete his statutory eight-year tenure by November 12, 2024.

Campaigns for the coveted seat have been intense. Candidates from 17 political parties are in the contest.

THISDAY examines the candidates and the factors that may swing victory in their favour, as well as their strengths and weaknesses in the fierce contest.

The political atmosphere in Edo State is reaching a feverish pitch. The frenzy is on, typical of elections in Nigeria, as electioneering has always been characterised by the usual carpet-crossing, alignments and realignments; horse-trading and violence

No doubt, the election is a three-horse race, but this particular contest is peculiar in several ways.

The rivalry between PDP, the governing party in Edo State, and APC, the party in charge at the national level, is more of a status and influence contest between two former allies, Governor Godwin Obaseki, and his predecessor, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, now a senator.

Before the duo parted ways, they were political bedfellows, such that against all protestations, Oshiomhole, as the outgoing governor in 2016, ensured that Obaseki, who then was a political neophyte, became the governor of the state on the platform of APC. But soon after the inauguration of Obaseki, the honeymoon between him and his then benefactor, Oshiomhole, was over. Both men became political enemies and never agreed again politically.

Saturday’s election will rekindle the rivalry between the duo, which began in 2019, when 14 elected state lawmakers loyal to Oshiomhole, were prevented from being sworn in as members of the House of Assembly, a situation orchestrated by Obaseki. To get back at Obaseki, Oshiomhole, then as National Chairman of APC, had denied Obaseki APC’s second term governorship ticket, an issue that would later cost him his own job.

Oshiomhole is looking to reassert his influence in the state. But Obaseki is determined not to yield an inch.  And with both men backing the opposing front runners, the stakes couldn’t be higher.

And, of course, the candidate of Labour Party, Olumide Akpata, is poised to take advantage of the numerical strength of the zone he hails from.

The three leading candidates are Asue Ighodalo of the governing Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Olumide Akpata of Labour Party (LP), and Monday Okpebholo of All Progressives Congress (APC).

Since the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared campaigns open for the off-cycle election some months ago, the stakes have increased daily, with political tension in full swing.

There have been threats to security at different times, but the campaigns have also degenerated to character debate, with two of the frontline candidates – Ighodalo and Okpebholo – staying away from a debate organised for the candidates.

Things got to a head last week, when PDP and its candidate, Ighodalo, declined to sign the peace accord, an electoral ritual, on the allegation that the police, an institution meant to provide security, was biased and working for APC.

APC, also, initially refused to sign the agreement because an orderly to its candidate was killed during the campaigns and his killers had yet to be apprehended. But it eventually signed the peace pact.

These scenarios have significantly coloured the tenor of campaigns, preparatory to the election this weekend. And they have further exposed the strengths and weaknesses of each of the candidates, inadvertently hinting at how they may stand in the election.

Asue Ighodalo

Quite a few factors are going well for the PDP candidate, Asue Ighodalo. These include his pedigree and sound education. A lawyer, economist, and head of various blue-chip companies, with eloquence and the ability to sell his manifesto, “Pathway to Prosperity For All”, Ighodalo stands out from the rest.

Since politics is a game of number and with the current state of the nation, the PDP governors are determined to maintain their current number, even if they may not be in a position to increase it.

Ighodalo has the overwhelming support of governors of his party.

Again, a majority of Edo people in the Diaspora have thrown their weight behind Ighodalo. The National Association of Nigerian Students (NANS), too, as well as traders and other professionals have followed suit.

Additionally, his native Esan people have resolved to stand by their own. To them, the Okpebholo axis of Edo Central district had taken the senate position and, therefore, cannot take the governorship, in addition. They hold the view that the Ighodalo axis should take the governorship for balance of power.

Another factor in favour of Ighodalo is the choice of his running mate, Osarodion Ogie, who appears to command staggering followership across the three senatorial districts of the state and have friends across the parties.

Unfortunately, two issues stand stoutly against his aspiration. One is the much-touted federal might, which though has been dismissed repeatedly, but may be relied on by the opposition party. The other factor is the political disposition of his leader and benefactor, Godwin Obaseki, which many consider undesirable.

Ighodalo’s association with Obaseki may constitute a minus for him. It is why some people have likened his candidacy to a continuation of Obaseki’s administration. For these people, stopping Ighodalo is akin to stopping Obaseki, irrespective of the development that the Obaseki administration has brought to the state and the bold vision articulated by Ighodalo in his manifesto.

Olumide Akpata

Also a lawyer and former president of Nigerian Bar Association (NBA), Olumide Akpata is well-read and a good choice by his party. He, too, parades a robust manifesto, titled, “My Pact With Edo People.” Coming from a zone that has the highest number of registered voters, up to 58 per cent, more than the other two districts put together, Akpata may ride on the popularity of his party and its performance in the 2023 general election, which enabled it to snatch a senatorial seat from PDP and APC.

But Akpata’s number one disadvantage may be the consensus reached by a majority of the Edo elite to yield power to the central zone, which has not tasted the governorship since the Fourth Republic, except for Professor Oserhiemen Osunbor, who governed for 18 months before the courts nullified his mandate in favour of Adams Oshiomhole in 2008.

Unlike PDP and APC, which have known political figures as running mates, the LP deputy governorship candidate, Alhaji Yusuf Asamah Kadiri, SAN, is largely unknown in the political artery of Edo State. It is doubtful if he can muscle votes for the LP ticket.

Kadiri suffers the same plague as Akpata. Both are outsiders in the politics of Edo, and are largely seen as trying to take votes away from PDP, which, unfortunately, may help APC.

Monday Okpebholo

Though the APC candidate, Monday Okpebholo, is not a political neophyte, and he can leverage some political experience, especially as a senator, he also has the backing of the ruling party at the centre, with its federal might.

Okpebholo equally has to his advantage some very good campaign managers, who do the talking for him and have boasted about how they would explore federal might to his advantage.

Despite those advantages, Okpebholo appears to lack depth and the gravitas to run a state in this day and age. Both his age and the age of his ideas appear to be out of tune with reality. Talk about articulation, eloquence, grasp and knowledge of issues, he is in a different realm – a total write-off, many have argued.

It is no wonder that he has been dodging debates – either in the print or electronic media. That he is from the same senatorial district as the PDP candidate is another disadvantage, because he may likely split votes with Ighodalo.

In the final analysis, while the three political parties will try to put up a good fight and seek to outdo one another, the odds are believed to still presently favour the PDP candidate, Ighodalo, even though nothing is certain yet in politics until the final whistle is blown.