How African Nations Risk Losing Aid and Long-Term Partnerships by Aligning with Russia

Dr Hannah Muthoni Macharia

In an increasingly interconnected world, international relations significantly impact economic stability and development. African nations, many of which rely heavily on foreign aid, face a precarious situation as some form alliances with Russia. This shift poses a threat to their financial support from western nations and institutional partners.

Foreign aid to Africa is primarily provided by Western countries and international organizations and plays a critical role in supporting health, education, infrastructure, and economic development within African nations. The assistance comes in various forms, including grants, loans, and technical support, aimed at alleviating poverty and promoting sustainable development. Historically, the geopolitical landscape has influenced the flow of aid, often making it contingent on foreign policy alignment.

Even though there has been a drop in foreign aid to Africa since events like the introduction of the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, and a myriad of other global events, supporting Africa states remains a high priority for the global west.

In 2023, foreign aid to Africa totaled US$ 223.7 billion, with the EU allocating Euro 181.5 million (USD 200m) alone for Humanitarian aid to west and Central Africa during the same year. The total is a 1.8 % increase from the previous year, highlighting not just a need for aid on the continent, but the willingness for the west to spend.

The challenge to verification of statistics and hard facts regarding western spending has been in Russia’s ability to spread disinformation and propaganda, telling a very different story about foreign aid to Africa, especially West Africa. And even though one would be hard-pressed to see any real evidence of that aid in any of the countries where Russia, through the Wagner group operate, so successful has their propaganda machine been, that Russian disinformation operations across West Africa have led to an unprecedented rise in popular support for the Kremlin and have in many cases seen a rise in the demand for Russian interventions.

The disinformation machine appropriated by the Kremlin has ranged from political influence in elections where pro-Russian candidates have made a run for power. This was evident in both Mozambique and Madagascar, where disinformation was spread about candidates to poise those with support for the Kremlin as front-runners.

According to a New York Times report in 2018, it wasn’t uncommon to witness Russian operatives walking the streets of Madagascar’s capital wearing back-packs filled with cash as well as packets of gold and precious stones used to bribe journalists, candidates and students.

Russian state funded media outlets such as RT (formerly Russia Today) and Sputnik have established a presence in Africa and are used to promote narratives that align with Russian interests or portray western nations in a negative light.

Russian disinformation campaigns in countries such as the Central African Republic and Libya have seen the impact of the Wagner Group’s involvement minimized while casting narratives that pin-point the west as the culprits of the insecurity in these regions.

And while the Kremlin would like to have the world believe they are Africa’s biggest supporters politically and economically, nothing could be further from the truth.

In a 2018 report, a comparison was made to Russia’s aid allotment to Africa, stating a relatively small figure of a total of USD 4.6 Billion since 1959, while comparatively, western programs contributed over USD 100 Billion over the same time period.

Even the recent attempts to show Russian “good-will” towards Africa have not been without

detractors and truthfully little to no proof that the promises made have in fact materialized.

In July 2023 Vladmir Putin promised free grain to six African nations and assured them that Moscow was trying to avert a global food crisis . In February of this year, the Russian leader stated that Russia has written off debts to various African states worth $23 billion. However, there was no clarification to what countries and to what debt this was attached to.

It is evident that Russia creates a dependency rather than a fair bi-lateral relationship with their so-called partners in Africa, whether through military dependency, removal of broken political systems, or military coupe’s and protection of governments. More recently it appears that Russia is attempting to create a new dependency through oil. It has become increasingly clear that Africa as a whole has quickly emerged as a key market for Russian oil sellers.

As a number of African nations have sought to strengthen their relationships with Russia for a myriad of reasons such as; a desire for military support, economic investment, and a counterbalance to western influence, this shift has caused a re-think on aid and support to the continent from some nations on the other side of the divide.

Norway’s recent decision to withdraw its aid from Mali was a clear signal of discontent with the Malian government’s alignment with Russia. The country accused the Malian authorities of breaching commitments to human rights and democratic governance, a fundamental component of Norway’s foreign aid policy. As a result, Norway suspended its financial support, which amounted to millions of dollars annually, aimed at promoting stability and social development in the country. What does this mean for Mali? Only time will tell.

This withdrawal is not just an isolated case; it represents a broader trend in which alignment with Russia can lead to the erosion of trust and support from Western nations. Aid, often conditional upon adherence to democratic principles and human rights, becomes jeopardized when countries pursue partnerships that conflict with these values.

The ramifications of losing aid are profound for African countries like Mali, which are heavily reliant on international assistance to fund their development programs, combat poverty, and maintain social services. Inadequate funding can lead to an exacerbation of existing problems, including; increased poverty, economic instability, social unrest, human rights challenges, all clear signs of weakened sovereignty.

The ongoing shift in alliances also has broader geopolitical implications. As Western countries reassess their commitments and relationships, there could be a power vacuum that Russia might exploit, creating a more significant footprint on the continent. This situation could potentially lead to increased militarization in certain regions, undermining the peace and stability that aid often seeks to promote.

As African countries pivot towards Russia, there is a growing concern that Western donors may reassess their support. Countries like the United States and members of the European Union have long used aid as a tool for promoting democratic governance, human rights, and market economies. An alliance with Russia, which often stands in opposition to these values, could lead to a withdrawal or reduction of funding.

As African countries navigate the complexities of global alliances, their growing relationship with Russia comes with notable risks regarding aid funding. The geopolitical landscape is unpredictable, and while some nations may find solace in Russian partnership, they must weigh the consequences of their choices on foreign aid.

The future of development in Africa remains steadfastly intertwined with diplomatic ties, necessitating careful navigation to ensure prosperity and stability in the region. The decisions made today will resonate for years, impacting not just the political landscape but the lives of millions reliant on foreign aid for their daily sustenance and development.

In recent years, several African nations have found themselves navigating complex geopolitical landscapes, particularly in light of growing ties with Russia. While nations pursue new partnerships to bolster their economic and security frameworks, the implications of such alignments can be severe, particularly regarding international aid. Norway’s recent decision to withdraw its aid from Mali serves as a poignant example of how geopolitical stances can affect the financial support that vulnerable nations rely on.

•Dr Hannah Muthoni Macharia PhD is a member of the Department of International Relations, Conflict and Strategic Studies in the School of Security, Diplomacy and Peace Studies of Kenyatta University, Nairobi, Kenya.