Tinubunomics: Hand on Plough or Leg in Trough?

Kunle Jenrola

There’s  a sense in which a critique or criticism of the ongoing economic reforms of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s (PBAT) administration is beginning to sound merely rhetorical or alliterative. 

What with the commonality of hardship stirring a stormy reaction from the citizens against a fickle- minded government response. 

And, as the economy bites harder, all the assessments : judgemental, subjective or constructive tend to cut a sorry imagery of threshing corn on the back of a calabash .

Somehow, recurring descriptives such as “suffering and smiling”; “hasty and nasty”; “brash and harsh”; “flailing and failing”; “quibbling and quixotic” have become figurative nuances of the frustration of a critical mass of Nigerians.

But, like a one- legged duck paddling vigorously to stay afloat, the PBAT administration may be making a lot of motion without remarkable movement in its foray to ease the increasing challenges of lives and livelihood for the average Nigerian. 

Non- percolating palliatives, yet visible impact of import waivers on food items/pharmaceuticals and sluggish introduction of CNG mass transit buses convey lethargy and insensitivity.

Worse still, the optics of profligacy at the executive and legislative levels of government vitiate any moral authority to preach prudence.

The nation is now at that fork in the road where appeals of renewed hope, patience and forebearance are more provocative or disturbing than invocative or soothing.

To be fair, if the current parlous state of our economy is viewed from an historical perspective, newspaper headlines and the rhyme and rhythm of the contemporary music of the sixties to date would spell deja vu .

For instance, in the 1980s, highlife maestro, Dr Victor Abimbola Olaiya, released a hit album titled: “Ilu le, ko s’owo lode..” (Country is hard, there’s no money to spend…). Curiously, a throwback into the literary oeuvre of many artistes since Nigeria’s Independence tend to replicate themes  of hunger, poverty and economic hardship.

A tawdry colour was added to the canvass of sound when some pun artiste put a spin on “ominira”-the Yoruba word for Independence to coin an unflattering:”Omi inira” ( water of discomfort) to depict the poetic mood of the day. 

So, can we say: “things change to stay same” ?!

Why is it that all successive administrations in Nigeria have been the butt of scathing criticisms and the preceding government, no matter how disappointing, is always better than its successor.

If the colonial government’s tax policy provoked the Abeokuta Women Revolt in the late 1940s, why should citizens expect a halcyon experience from succeeding regional governments of the 1960s driven by a desire to shore up its revenue to achieve economic independence. 

Needless to recall that the military regimes, typified by Generals Yakubu Gowon’s “years of fatness”, Olusegun Obasanjo’s (OBJ) “belt-tightening reign” and Muhammadu Buhari ‘s “economic authoritarianism”, were marked by dins of discomfort and tongs of citizens’ actions.

By 1985 when General Ibrahim Babangida (IBB) took over the reins of government in a coup d’tat in response to political tension and economic hardship inflicted by General Buhari’s “Essential Commodities (Essenco) government”, it was clear that hapless Nigerians were on the brink of another economic rollercoaster . 

The inevitable introduction of IBB’s Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) with  its components of Foreign Exchange management and devaluation of the naira touched off inflationary trends and widespread social discontent. 

In the wake of the incongruencies of our import- dependent economy, vis-a-vis the foreign exchange (Forex) crunch, the costs of goods and services took a direct hit .

And, Nigerians Protested Vehemently!

There were series of violent Anti-SAP riots between May and June 1989. The protesters included students, non students, employed workers, the unemployed, school children and hoodlums. Protesters, including late legal luminary and activity, Chief Gani Fawehinmi, were arrested and deaths were recorded in Benin, Edo State.

By the advent of the Fourth Republic heralded by the pangs of the June 12 political crisis, our economy was in a doldrum. Attempts were made at plugging economic drainpipes through several partial removal of fuel subsidy and privatisation. 

These adjustments, including the botched OBJ power reform became reference points of ineptitude, corruption as well as causes of incessant citizens’ and labour restiveness.

This is probably why some may argue that if we survived all the hyper inflationary trends driven by our perennial economic challenges, there is sufficient exculpatory evidence to sustain PBAT’s strategy of “focal indifference”  to protestations over taxation, hikes in petroleum/energy  and forex management.

Or, could this “we’ve-been- here- before” mentality be fueling government unbending stance on pushing the reform agenda to the hilt with little or no attempt to address the complaints, frontally.

Latching on to the Power of Focus, the government may not be apologetic for adopting a riposte:  “I’M NOT DEAF, I’M JUST IGNORING YOU” -popularised by a 1993 Hit song of Heideroojes- a Dutch punk rock band .

It is instructive to note that FOCUS is mostly akin to DEAFNESS and to the extent that it is acronymic of Follow(ing) One Course Until Successful, the PBAT strategy of resisting pressure could be its competitive edge to overcome the enormous task of changing our narrative of prodigality and corruption. 

Afterall, Winston Churchill says: You will never reach your destination if you stop and throw stones at every dog that barks.” 

The downside to such a proposition is that  democracy cannot afford to lose its focus on any of the cardinal points of governance. Too much focus on Revenue Generation would raise the ogre of colonial hegemony and sheer wickedness.

A government has a constitutional obligation to promote Good governance and Welfare of the citizens. 

This presupposes that to focus absolutely on economic reform without paying more than a half hearted attention to the food security and welfare of the people is undemocratic ,unconscionable and inhumane.

Of course, it would be sounding like a broken record to continue to harp on rising cost of energy ,food and transportation when statistics shows that  inflation Rate in Nigeria decreased to 32.15 percent in August from 33.40 percent in July of 2024.

Why would PBAT look back while plowing if Nigeria’s trade surplus rose by 33.9 percent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to N67.95 trillion in the second quarter of 2024 (Q2’24) from N5.19 trillion in first quarter (Q1)2024.

According to the  National Bureau of Statistics(NBS), imports fell by 10.7 per cent QoQ to N12.47 trillion in Q2’24 from N13.97 trillion in Q1’24.

Surely, it could count as a dividend of focus and stoic commitment to the course of sustainable economic growth to shore up Nigeria’s Foreign Reserve from $33bn in 2023 to $34.66bn in July 3024. 

This , like other macroeconomic records, would repose confidence in investors and create employment opportunities, the administration would quip.

However, no democracy succeeds on account of its macroeconomic achievements at the expense of microeconomics that has direct bearing on people’s welfare.. Even John Keynes, the father of Macroeconomics would flinch at the untoward effects of its lopsidedness against the microeconomic indices in today’s Nigeria. With the yet unpaid national minimum wage at N70,000 per month assailed  by the skyrocketing costs of basic food items and transportation, times could not have been harder. 

At the risk of indulging in ad nauseum complaints, it amounts to hope-thrashing for the PBAT’s government to deepen distrust and heighten inflation by playing politics with the pricing of petroleum products – especially the Premium Motor Spirit ((PMS). 

Not a few Nigerians had waited expectantly that the commencement of operations of the Dangote Refinery would ease supply hiccups and enthrone competitive pricing of PMS .  

Unfortunately, this valid projections were quickly blunted by confused price fixing tactics of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (NNPCL). As if to punish Nigerians with its debt manacle of $6b, it hijacked the Dangote product marketing/pricing process to jack up fuel price from N588/N620 per liter to N950/N1100 per liter. 

We may recall that Dangote had initially put its price per liter at N858 ex- depot.

How does a government that draws its moral capital from the renewal of citizens’ hope elevate NNPCL’s sacred cow reputation into an art of lies and deception. 

With President Tinubu as the Petroleum Minister, it’s inexcusable that the hope and stoic endurance of Nigerians to enjoy reliefs that should accrue from local refinement of fuel would be rewarded with underhand pricing and insincerity.

It is at this point that the motive of government’s hands -on -plow- reforms and its thick-skinned rebuff of critics becomes questionable. 

For how long would PBAT’s government revel in the babble of its confused insights on turning things around – in a rush.

Or, shall we say: how soon will an administration that rode into office on the back of the stiffest opposition come out from an economic trough.

Whatever happens, it should be borne in mind that it is better to render  the myth of October with its infamy for distrust, dissatisfaction and disintermediation impotent by engaging with critical stakeholders whilst addressing major anxieties on cost of food and transportation.

Having hurdled over the #EndBadGovernance Riots” in August, “an ounce of prevention” of the planned October 1st Protest would be” worth more than a pound of its cure”.

Jenrola, a seasoned journalist and Communication Consultant writes from Lagos.

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