Nigeria Targets 4 Million bpd Oil Production, 10bcf Gas Output By 2030

•FG seeks to unlock $10bn of $90bn deepwater fund 

•Survey shows nation’s September oil volume dropped 40,000bpd

Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja

The federal government has said it is targeting about 4 million barrels per day oil production and 10bcf of gas output by 2030, especially given the recent offshore oil and gas incentives announced by President Bola Tinubu.

This was made known in a statement yesterday signed by the Special Adviser to the President on Energy and head of the Energy Office of the Presidency, Mrs. Olu Verheijen,  who also coordinates the rollout of the reforms.

 “Since Nigeria’s last deepwater project – the Egina project – was approved in 2013, International Oil Companies operating in Nigeria have committed more than $82 billion in deepwater investments to other countries that they deem more competitive.

“Over the next few years, they plan to spend another $90 billion to develop deepwater oil and gas projects. This is the pool of funds that our reforms are targeting, and we intend to unlock between $5 billion to $10 billion of new investments in Nigeria in the near- to medium-term,” Verheijen said.

For years, Nigeria has been unable to meet its Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil production quota, blaming the problem on massive oil theft as well as lack of investment in the sector.

But the presidential aide recalled in the release signed by the  Stakeholder Manager in her office, Morenike Adewunmi, that since assuming office in May 2023, the government of Nigeria has embarked on a series of new reforms to improve the competitiveness of its oil and gas industry.

This, she said , was aimed at bringing down the costs and timelines of doing business in a sector that continues to be the biggest earner of foreign exchange for the country.

These reforms, which include three presidential directives issued in February 2024, Verheijen said, will create tens of thousands of new jobs, improve foreign exchange earnings, stimulate tax revenues and contribute to Nigeria’s macroeconomic stability.

She further highlighted Tinubu’s approval during the week, of the issuance of two new sets of fiscal incentives: a Value Added Tax (VAT) waiver covering gas, diesel, electric vehicles and clean cooking equipment, and tax credits for new investments in the exploration and production of deepwater oil and gas.

The new fiscal incentives, expected to take effect immediately were contained in documents issued by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun.

According to the presidential aide, the incentives are in alignment with the Presidential Gas for Growth Initiative, which aims to fast-track the development of natural gas, displace fossil fuels in transport, promote affordability of gas, and bolster the country’s energy security.

Despite the intensifying urgency of the global energy transition, an estimated 76 per cent of Nigeria’s gas, she stressed, remains undeveloped.

Commenting during the unveiling, the Chairman of the Oil Producers Trade (OPTS) Section, Osagie Okunbor, said: “The level of coordination and policy coherence we’re seeing today is unprecedented. The accelerated pace of reforms over the past year has renewed our interest in Nigeria.”

Also, Chairperson of the Petroleum Contractors Trade Section (PCTS), another industry group, Rosario Osobase,  said: “For the first time in a long while, we’re seeing positive momentum in our industry in Nigeria, thanks to the presidential directives and the government’s deliberate efforts to engage the service sector.”

Meanwhile, a survey by Reuters yesterday indicated that Nigeria pumped 40,000 bpd less oil leading to a decline in exports, quoting tanker tracking firms.

Overall, OPEC oil output fell in September to its lowest this year, the survey found, as unrest disrupted Libyan supply and Iraq made progress in complying with its cutbacks pledged to the wider OPEC+ alliance.

If the production deficit is confirmed by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Company Limited (NUPRC) in the coming days, it would be a major setback for Nigeria, which has been looking to ramping up production to boost FX inflow.

OPEC countries pumped 26.14 million barrels per day last month, down 390,000 bpd from August’s revised total, the survey found, with Libya accounting for the bulk of the drop.

A drop in Libyan exports and production amid a standoff between political factions over control of the central bank helped boost oil prices, which have come under pressure from concern about demand and rising supply outside OPEC+.

Libya provided the largest supply cut of 300,000 bpd. Output should rebound after a dispute over the leadership of the country’s central bank was resolved and the national oil company lifted the force majeure at oilfields, Reuters reported.

Aside from Libya, which is exempt from OPEC+ agreements to limit production, the biggest decline came from Iraq, which is seeking to boost compliance with its OPEC target. Iraq is still pumping 90,000 bpd above quota, the survey found.

“Nigeria pumped 40,000 bpd less oil as exports declined, according to tanker tracking firms,” the report said.

The Reuters survey aims to track supply to the market and is based on shipping data provided by external sources, LSEG flows data, information from companies that track flows such as Kpler and Petro-Logistics, and information provided by sources at oil companies, OPEC and consultants.