Report Predicts Uncertainty in Nigeria’s Oil Production in Q4

Ejiofor Alike

A new report by the Society of Energy Editors (SEE) has predicted that uncertainty will characterise Nigeria’s crude oil production in this fourth quarter (Q4) of the year due to ongoing challenges in the oil and gas industry.

In its 2024 Fourth Quarter Outlook for the Nigerian Energy Sector released in Lagos, SEE, a professional association dedicated to promoting excellence in media coverage of the energy sector, noted a decline in the country’s oil production.

According to the report, the trend would likely continue unless there were significant reforms in the sector.

The fourth quarter Outlook was the third to be issued by the SEE this year after the second and third quarter reports released earlier in the year.

The report stated that while investments, and oil and gas exploration and production were at an all-time low, the shortcomings on the part of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited and the Ministry of Petroleum Resources would negatively impact the success of projects.

“Investments are at an all-time low and this may remain unchanged in the fourth quarter. Oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) are at an all-time low and may remain that way in Q4. The NNPC Ltd is not able to take decisions on moving projects along and indications are that this will remain so in Q4.

“Similarly, the NNPC Ltd is not able to ensure that the divestment programme of the International Oil Companies (IOCs) doesn’t negatively impact Joint Venture operations, and this may remain so in Q4. The Ministry of Petroleum Resources is also unable to move stalled projects along and this may remain so in Q4,” the report explained.

SEE revealed that Nigeria currently has 14 oil rigs operating, citing the latest data from August 2024.

This number, the report said, had remained unchanged from the previous period and would likely remain so in Q4.

The report noted that the country’s oil rig count had averaged 10.75 from 1995 until 2024, with a record high of 23 in February 2020 and a low of the in January 2000.

On domestic refining of crude oil and fuel imports, the Society of Energy Editors maintained that the commencement of petroleum refining at the Dangote Refinery is expected to boost domestic refining capacity and reduce fuel imports.

However, it added, “indications are that the refinery’s operations may be impacted by the disputes between its management and NNPC Ltd regarding crude oil supply, petroleum products off-take, and pricing.”