A Scholarly Analysis of Tinubu’s Independence Anniversary Speech

University of Ibadan Laboratory for Interdisciplinary Statistical Analysis has released a research-based sentiment and topic analysis of President Bola Tinubu’s 64th Independence Anniversary Address, adapting a thorough social scientific approach to review it. Raheem Akingbolu reports.

Every year, Nigerians look forward to October 1, the independence anniversary of their country. Aside from the festivities that usually greet the day at local, state and federal government levels, corporate organisations also see the day as a special day to further connect with their teeming consumers through different advertising campaigns, radio jingles and television commercials.

But beyond the jamborees, a major feature of the independence day is the annual Presidential speech. The speech is always regarded as the high point of the day because of its ability to reconstruct Nigeria’s path in the area of policies, major economic pronouncements and appointments.

Before Tuesday, October 1, 2024 Independence anniversary, many analysts and pundits had, as usual, taken over the various media platforms, both traditional and online to predict, assume and advise President Tinubu on what to do, what to say and what not to say. A few people also concluded that the President would rejig his cabinet on that day, either by dropping some Ministers, appointing new ones or swapping portfolios. Contrary to the various assumptions, mum was the word on Ministers.

While different analysts and political commentators provided general public with facts and figures on independence anniversary speech in their respective corners, some scholars at the University of Ibadan -The University of Ibadan Laboratory for Interdisciplinary Statistical Analysis (UI-LISA) did the unusual this year as they simply took the speech to the laboratory for scientific diagnosis. Through the rigour, they provided not only the conceptual meaning of the theme of the speech but also the connotative.

In the beginning of their report, the scholars admitted that the 64th Independence Anniversary address by President Tinubu presented a comprehensive overview of Nigeria’s journey, progress, and future aspirations. Through a thorough sentiment and topic analysis, Nigerians were given a clearer understanding of the dominant themes and emotions expressed by the President, underscoring the optimism, determination, and vision that marked the address.

Under what is tagged ‘Sentiment Analysis’ the UI-LISA report posited that it carried an overarching tone of optimism and trust, designed to reassure Nigerians of the government’s unwavering commitment to addressing the country’s economic, social, and security challenges.

The above position must have been informed by the President’s thoughts on economic reforms as captured in the speech. He did acknowledge the economic difficulties, including rising living costs and unemployment and urged Nigerians to remain patient, assuring them that reforms are beginning to yield positive results.

“I want to assure you that your voices are heard… we are beginning to see light at the end of the tunnel,” Tinubu said.

On ‘Positive Sentiments & Trust’, the team of researchers were painstaking enough to pay attention to the fact that the speech was laden with phrases such as “better days ahead”, “light at the end of the tunnel”, and “building a brighter future”, signifying the President’s confidence in Nigeria’s ability to overcome its current challenges.

The ‘Anticipation & Hope’ as captured by the report also speaks to the central theme of the entire anniversary both from government and citizens’ views. According to UI-LISA, the President highlighted the ongoing reforms and their expected outcomes, particularly in stabilising the economy and fostering national unity.

In the speech, Tinubu acknowledged the pressing economic challenges, particularly rising living costs and unemployment, as well as his administration’s efforts to address these issues. His call for patience suggests that the reforms underway, including monetary policy changes and fiscal realignments, will require time to deliver results.

For balance, the report also looked at ‘Negative Sentiments’ but was quick to cap it with the promise of a brighter future ahead. “Although the speech acknowledged Nigeria’s current difficulties, including references to “suffering”, “struggles”, “terrorism”, and the “high cost of living”, these were balanced with promises of progress and security improvements, reinforcing hope for a brighter future,” the report stated.

The report identified key themes in the speech to include; economic reforms and stability, national security, youth empowerment, agriculture and food production and energy transmission.

It posited that President Tinubu emphasised the government’s efforts to reform fiscal policies, attract foreign investments, and reduce the cost of living. These reforms are vital for Nigeria’s long-term economic health and growth.

Specifically, the President highlighted that over $30 billion in foreign direct investments had been secured in the past year, a sign of growing confidence in Nigeria’s economy.

He emphasized, “the growing confidence in our economy is evident, and we will continue to maintain fiscal stability to attract even more investments.”

The report also dwells a little on the president’s confidence in National Security by admitting that a significant portion of the speech focused on the fight against terrorism and other security challenges.

“The President highlighted victories against Boko Haram and banditry, underscoring the government’s commitment to restoring peace and stability across the country,” the report added.

Another theme the UI-LISA emphasised is the position of the President on Youth Empowerment. To establish this, they made reference to  several youth-centric initiatives, including the upcoming National Youth Conference and programs to enhance employment opportunities, education, and innovation announced by Tinubu. These efforts, according to the analysis, aim to involve Nigeria’s young population—who make up over 60% of the populace—in nation building.

Already, many analysts have hailed Tinubu’s announcement of a National Youth Conference as an important gesture toward inclusivity, particularly given Nigeria’s youthful demographic, which makes up over 60 percent of the population. This initiative has the potential to foster dialogue and address issues that directly affect young Nigerians, such as education, employment, and innovation.

Knowing well the clamour for diversification for economic recovery, the team of researchers analysed the President’s thoughts on Agriculture and Food Production. The speech placed special emphasis on the government’s efforts to promote mechanised farming, boost local food production, and reduce food prices, which are critical to ensuring food security and driving economic growth.

Under Energy Transition, the report touched on the government’s energy initiatives, particularly the adoption of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) for mass transit, which is expected to significantly lower transportation costs and contribute to the nation’s energy transition efforts. President Tinubu also confirmed the expansion of its usage. “Our energy transition programme is on course… to provide cheaper public transportation.”

In their conclusion, the team of scholars  stated emphatically that the analysis of President Tinubu’s address demonstrates a balanced narrative— acknowledging the hardships faced by the nation while also painting a hopeful picture of the future.

According to the team; “The President’s speech reflects his administration’s focus on long-term solutions, ranging from economic reforms to youth empowerment, agriculture, security, and energy. With continued commitment and the ongoing implementation of these reforms, Nigeria is on the path toward achieving stability, growth, and prosperity.”

However, in the appendix to the report provides a detailed breakdown of the sentiment analysis and visuals from the word cloud and sentiment distribution.

For instance, the sentiment analysis used advanced natural language processing tools to extract emotional responses within the speech. In the detailed breakdown of key sentiment categories expressed, the report stated as follows.

While positive sentiments are 103 occurrences, trust sentiments, and anticipation sentiments were put at 56 occurrences and 38 occurrences respectively. Others are negative sentiments are 52 occurrences, fear is 25 occurrences, sadness,15 occurrences, anger is put at 20 occurrences and disgust at nine occurrences.

In line with an average social science research, UI-LISA created a ‘word cloud visual’ which illustrates the most frequently used words in the speech. Words such as “nation,” “economy,” “people,” and “future” were among the most prominent, highlighting the key focus areas of the address.

Closely related was the sentiment distribution chart where a bar chart displays the frequency of each sentiment category, offering a clear representation of the balance between positive, trust-based language and the acknowledgment of challenges.

In the final analysis, putting the report side by side with the speech and the strides the government has made in both economic and security reform, one can rightly conclude that President Tinubu’s Independence Day address offers a mixture of hope and optimism.