NES30 At Times Like This

Issa Aremu

“…. the problem in Africa is not so much that development failed as that it never really began.”

–Claude Ake (2001)

#NES30 (30th Nigerian Economic Summit) holds  from Monday 14th to Thursday 16th of October 2024 in Abuja. As a participant/ observer  of the summits in the last three decades, I bear witness that Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), a private sector platform  conceived in 1993, incorporated in 1996 has kept faith  with its vision to be  “Africa’s leading private sector think-tank committed to the development of a modern globally competitive and inclusive Nigerian economy”. Credit goes to the foresight, thoughtfulness of the founding men and women, the resilience of the subsequent Board members of NESG. The story of NESG  confirms  that contrary to the received advise of America’s 44th President Barack Obama, Africa  truly  needs “strong” men and women to build sustainable institutions in overcoming legacy of  under-development. NES30 is a tribute to late Chief Ernest Shonekan, Mr Pascal Dozie and late Alhaji Ahmadu Joda for their respective efforts in building  NESG which has outperformed scores of similar government and private economic institutions, devoted to analyzing economic data and sharing perspectives  on Nigerian economy. At least in consistent orthodoxy of market policy ideas, notwithstanding their controversial impact.

At 30, the critical question begging for answer is: to what extent  NESG institution built on the “foundational principles” of “free market economy” and “private sector investment” has  promoted growth and development ? The point cannot be overstated: Institutions with men and women are just the means. The end is “development” which  scandalously and regrettably is still in huge deficit in Nigeria!

Happily  there have been some policy introspections   and self critical assessment within NESG itself. No thanks to the abysmal performance of the economy driven by the “philosophy” which NES II as far back as 1995, repeatedly canvassed to be “market oriented”. Asue Ighodalo,  Chairman 27th Nigerian Economic Summit  themed: “Securing our future: The fierce urgency of Now”, identified key current features of Nigerian economy, as “increasing unemployment, pervasive insecurity and dwindling investments in critical sectors,”. Last year, Deputy Chairman of the NESG, Amina Maina at the 29th Summit bemoaned a  “once promising high growth nation … now struggling with under-development”! Which means that Nigeria’s growth and Development numbers have not significantly improved in quantity and quality since NES1 in 1993. On the contrary. There is a slide to a new “underdevelopment”. Token progress defies sustainability. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), says Nigeria’s headline inflation rate declined to 32.15% in August 2024, 1.25% points lower compared to the 33.40% recorded in July 2024. This is a far cry from the target of 21% Inflation Rate in 2024 budget proposal. Notwithstanding the new  NBS’s inclusive methodology on unemployment rate calculus,  the  unemployment rate increased significantly in Q3 2023 at 5.0%,  an increase of 0.8% from Q2 2023. Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reportedly grew by 2.98% (year-on-year) in real terms in the first quarter of 2024, higher than the 2.31% recorded in the first quarter of 2023, but lower than 11.52per cent between  2000 and 2004. Persistent Naira devaluation and spiral fuel price hikes have worsened wage income poverty despite commendable six nominal increases in National  minimum wage since 1981 due to the struggles of organized labour.

Whence then the relevance of NESG and its addictive market (and only market!) policy recommendations at times of stag-inflation, with persistent slow growth, high unemployment, deepening inequality, mass poverty and rising prices? What difference will #NES30 make from the norm of what passes for three lost decades of development?

At the weekend in Nassarawa,  Vice President, Kashim Shettima, representing President Bola Tinubu spoke the mind of many Nigerians. “Enough is Enough” of distressing statistics, “poor educational outcomes, high pupil-to-teacher ratios, and the large number of youth not in employment, education, or training…high fertility rates, alarming maternal and under-five mortality rates, and low life expectancy among vulnerable populations” he declared. Senator  Kashim Shettima spoke at the launch of Nasarawa State’s Human Capital Development (HCD) Strategy Document. It is heart warming to read, for once, in recent times about “human capital development” . NESG at 30 must compliment the government to return “Development” to Nigeria’s economic discourse at the centre of which must be humans not as mere “numbers”. The fundamental objective of the state principle as espoused in 1999 constitution is the welfare and security of the citizens. I share the optimism of the Minister of Finance, Wale Edun, that recovery is underway within the context of the Renewed Hope agenda given the improved numbers on Non-oil revenue, reduced National debt burden, Ways and means and budget deficit among others. The numbers must however translate to decent secured jobs and quality of working and living conditions. That requires collaboration with a reformed private sector platform like  NESG that accepts that elected governments  have “business in business” in delivering on promises to the electorate.

Happily  this year’s NESG theme focuses on “Collaborative Action for Growth, Competitiveness, and Stability”. Undoubtedly NESG has “achieved significant progress in the areas of research outputs, execution of programmes, seminars, conferences..”. But it must reinvent itself; Replace market orthodoxy of TINA (There Is no Alternative) with heterodoxy of views that there are many pathways to development. One-way path-of-no-return neoliberalism has underdeveloped Nigeria. It’s time  to reform the existing Reform, terminate the unhelpful notion of market fundamentalism that pitches the state against the market in mutually destructive competition. Promote benign view of the state for it to make the market work. Stop idolizing the market that repeatedly fails which in turn puts the burden on the state through stimulus rescue. John Mcmillan rightly observes that  “the problem in the developing countries is not that the markets are absent but that they are working badly’. Take petroleum downstream as example. For decades,  market  failed to deliver products not until  productive collaboration with the state to build first legacy public refineries and now private refineries,  innovate local for-crude-in-Naira, local crude-for-local refineries deals. A promised departure from the rot of the wholesale import in the names of market forces. First reinvent the market by getting domestic supply chain in place through refinery fixing (whether private or public). There was once a Nigeria of four National Development Plans (NDPs) with double digit growth rates sadly later traded for feverish debt-payment SAPs promoted by IMF/ World Bank for odious debt repayment by unaccountable military regimes. NESG has certainly come of age but the age of its market policy ideological dogma must give way to pragmatic mix bag of state and market policies that China has (with consistent Development plans) applied to secure second seat in the league of global economies , first position to take a multitude out of poverty. Nigeria should not  “waste” this current crisis. Start with the “soft” notion of development. I agree with former  Secretary-General of the United Nations, Ban Ki-moon that development is  “ the pathway to the future we want for all”.  Why should things get ‘tough’ for the already toughened populace before they will get better?. Amartya Sen, 1998 Nobel Prize Winner for Economics has long warned  us against a development process as a war (and in his own words!), as a “fierce process”, the regular trade marks of which are “blood, sweat and tears”- “… a world in which wisdom demands toughness’ instead of reasoning together for collective good.

•By Issa AREMU mni is Director General Micheal Imoudu National Institute for Labour Studies Ilorin, Member National Institute Kuru Jos