T-PAIN: Tinubu and the Travails of the Nigerian Masses

By Keem Abdul

“I do the very best I know how and I shall continue to do so to the end. If the end brings me out Right, all that is said against me will not mean anything; but if the end brings me out otherwise, Ten Angels swearing that I was right will make no difference” — Abe Lincoln

Since his entry into the Nigerian political arena in the early 1990s, the juggernaut known as Bola Ahmed Tinubu has gone by many nicknames. Some of these monikers are used to express admiration, others disapproval, and yet others, humour. They include the following: Jagaban (a Hausa word meaning ‘leader of warriors’ or ‘front-runner’, from the traditional title bestowed on him a few years ago by the Emirate of Borgu in Niger State). Its Yoruba equivalent, roughly speaking, is Asiwaju. Others are ‘City Boy’, and ‘Emilokan’ (‘Its my turn’ in Yoruba, the infamous assertion he made during the course of his campaign for the presidency in 2023).

In recent months, a new moniker has gained traction among Nigerians, especially on social media, as a descriptor of the times Nigerians are in at the moment: T-Pain. Originally recognized as the pseudonym of the American singer, songwriter and record producer Faheem Rashad Najm (known for popularizing the use of the Auto-Tune vocal device to create electronic-styled vocal performances), T-Pain, in the Nigerian context, is a reference to the ‘pain’ Nigerians are going through as a consequence of the President’s economic reforms and policies.

The ‘T‘ in T-Pain obviously refers to ‘Tinubu’, the architect, say his critics, behind the hardship that has become the daily reality of Nigerians. But to the President’s supporters, T-Pain actually means Temporary-Pain. Which is what the Tinubu administration says is the ultimate objective of said reforms and policies – momentary hardship, as the economy not only recovers its footing, but begins the journey towards sustainable prosperity.

The genuineness of the President’s intentions, they say, is not in doubt. Although one can argue that intentions alone are no guarantor of success in any endeavour, intentions – backed up by a comprehensive plan of action, a workable policy framework and a conducive regulatory environment – is a pointer to long-term success.

One of the ways in which the President aims to rejig the Nigerian economy is to centralize the revenues of the country under the proposed Nigeria Revenue Service, in a bid to streamline the tax collecting process and make it more transparent.

That way, all taxable entities will contribute their fair share and the revenues generated would be maximised to support public services and infrastructural development. These changes are in line with the administration’s quest to achieve a revenue target of N30trn within the next three years, and $1trn by 2030. Progress towards this revenue target, says the President’s Special Adviser on Revenues, Mr. Zaccheus Adedeji, is being made through the deployment of technology and data – and, notably, with mostly non-tax revenue.

Under the new system, the Nigeria National Petroleum Company Limited, the Nigeria Customs Service, the Federal Inland Revenue Service, the Nigerian Maritime and Safety Administration, and about 60 other revenue-generating agencies of the FG would have their collection processes integrated for efficiency and accountability. The changes are geared towards fixing Nigeria’s acute revenue problem.

The country’s tax-based revenue-to-GDP ratio is among the lowest in Africa. In 2022, for example, it generated revenues of about N15trn – as opposed to S/Africa’s N65 trillion in the same period, despite that country having roughly one-third of Nigeria’s population. This huge gap has led to a persistent fiscal deficit and over-reliance on borrowing to finance public spending, which in turn has resulted in a cycle of inadequate funding for socio-economic development. Tinubu’s government aims to reach a minimum tax-to-GDP ratio of 18%.

Speaking of the role of data in driving processes, planning and decision-making, and the impact of its dearth on national growth (which President Tinubu himself described as ‘an affliction’, impeding Nigeria’s ability to make informed decisions and perpetuating a cycle of missed opportunities and sub-optimal outcomes), he is keen to clean up the data system in a manner that ensures maximum transparency in all individual and collective dealings.

Among the key uses of data, as envisioned by the Tinubu administration, is his plan to activate a national ID card that allows the FG to interact with the citizens directly, for example in the disbursement of cash transfers and other social interventions – thereby eliminating the corruption that caused the failure of previous initiatives.

To avert such failures in future, the Tinubu-led FG set a target of over 100 million Nigerians across the country for the issuance of three new national identity cards. The cards, under the auspices of the National Identity Management Commission will include a bank-enabled National ID card, a Social Intervention Card, and an optional ECOWAS National Biometric Identity Card.

Apart from a means of identity, the National E-ID Card functions as a debit and prepaid card for both banked and unbanked individuals, using biometric authentication, such as fingerprint and picture, to aid identity verification. It also has offline capability that will allow transactions to be carried out in areas with limited network coverage.

Another plan President Tinubu is keen to bring to fruition is a credit-based economy that ensures that people do not have to go to too much trouble to afford the basic necessities of life. This informed his approval of the launch of the first phase of the Consumer Credit Scheme in Nigeria, a programme designed to offer credit facilities to working citizen.

Experts have noted that consumer credit serves as the lifeblood of modern economies, as it enables citizens to enhance their quality of life by accessing goods and services upfront, with the aim of paying incrementally and responsibly over time.

The Scheme will also offer credit guarantees and wholesale lending to those financial institutions dedicated to broadening consumer credit access in Nigeria. In spite of Nigeria’s history of a high default rate when it comes to credit repayment, analysts are confident that the Tinubu administration can tackle this issue effectively if it establishes Credit Bureaus to facilitate checks on potential borrowers before issuing loans.

From the foregoing, it is clear that such welfarist concepts as ‘social safety nets’, ‘social investments and interventions’, ‘unemployment benefits’ and the like (especially as far as the teeming youths of Nigeria, as well as other vulnerable persons, are concerned) are never far from the President’s mind.

It is in light of this that, early in his term, he directed the creation of a Social Security Unemployment Programme designed to carry out direct cash transfers to young, unemployed Nigerian youths. But related to the need to ensure purchasing-power stability among Nigerians of all income brackets is the need for jobs and sustainable means of livelihoods.

Mindful of the role of agriculture, in particular, to generate these jobs with the right investment and regulatory profile, President Tinubu plans to create a sustainable agricultural ecosystem in which all machineries will be produced in Nigeria, and farmers would be trained, equipped and given ample opportunities to benefit in full from their produce – through proper storage, processing and access to markets. This is in line with one of the goals of the Renewed Hope Agenda – the attainment of food security – which, in turn, will meet the objectives of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) pertaining to zero hunger and the enhancement of agricultural and rural productivity.

Over the years, critical stakeholders in the Nigerian enterprise have asserted that without a restructuring of the polity, and a transition to true fiscal federalism, every attempt at sustainable and people-centered development would ultimately be no more than an exercise in futility. Back in the day, President Tinubu was one of the proponents of this paradigm shift. Recent trends towards local government autonomy, and the overall devolution of authority towards the grassroots, can therefore be seen as the reiteration of his long-standing commitment – and the fulfillment, on his watch, of an aspiration which the people of this nation have always yearned for.

To be sure, Nigeria is far from being out of the woods, and there is still an enormous amount of work yet to be done, but President Tinubu has demonstrated that he has the political will to do the difficult work of pulling Nigeria from its morass – one policy initiative at a time.

The Holy Book says that though weeping may endure for the night, joy comes in the morning. If Nigerians insist on calling the President T-Pain, then it must be that the ‘T’ should mean ‘Temporary,’ nothing more.

• Keem Abdul, publisher and writer, hails from Lagos. He can be reached via +2348038795377 or Akeemabdul2023@gmail.com