Trump vs Harris: Who will Win US Election?

With the former United States President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris neck-and-neck in the battleground states, all eyes are on who will clinch the Electoral College, Martins Ifijeh writes from New Jersey

Voters in the United States will go to the polls on Tuesday, November 5 to elect their next president. The election, initially seen as a rematch of the 2020 presidential election, was upended in July when President Joe Biden ended his campaign and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as his party’s candidate.

The big question now is – will America get its first woman president or will former President Donald Trump get a second term? If Trump wins, he would join the likes of Grover Cleveland who lost a reelection in 1889 and came back four years after (1893) and was given a second-term chance.

So far, the race is driven by intense war of words, where rhetorical framing is the key weapon being deployed by both sides to shape opinions and influence voting decision.

 While Trump has made strong economy and immigration the core of his campaign, Harris, among others, has made abortion central to her campaign, and has continued to advocate for legislation that would safeguard reproductive rights nationwide.

Though some Americans believe that Harris is still relatively unknown and weak on economy, they have reservations for Trump for what he represents and his chaotic and troubling regime four years ago. 

His current campaign rhetoric has also made a lot of Republicans to distance themselves from him. 

According to latest polls, Harris has a small lead of 48 per cent over Trump’s 47 per cent in the national polling averages since she entered the race at the end of July and she remains ahead. 

The numbers were relatively stable through September, even after the only debate between the two candidates on September 10, which was watched by nearly 70 million people. 

Other polls are also showing that Trump has a slight lead ahead of Harris and vice versa.

With most polls suggesting razor-thin margins between Trump and Harris, this election is turning out to be one of the most closely contested in American history. Undecided or hesitant voters have become critical in breaking the tie between closely matched support bases on both sides, come November 5.

While these national polls and forecasts are a useful guide as to how popular a candidate is across the country as a whole, they are not necessarily an accurate way to predict the result of the election. 

So far, as part of the early voting, about 67 million Americans have already voted, with 36 million mail-in ballots pending, bringing the likely total to 100 million votes so far if all pending ballots are returned.

But how a candidate wins the election is more complicated than just votes. It actually comes down to an often misunderstood body called the Electoral College.

That’s because the US uses an Electoral College system, in which each state is given a number of votes roughly in line with the size of its population. 

A total of 538 electoral college votes are up for grabs; so, a candidate needs to hit 270 to win.

There are 50 states in the US, but because most of them nearly always vote for the same party, in reality, there are just a handful where both candidates stand a chance of winning. These are the places where the election will be won and lost and are known as battleground states or swing states.

How Electoral College Works 

Under the Electoral College, all 50 states and the District of Columbia are allocated a certain number of electoral votes equal to their two senators and their number of representatives.

 Since representatives are based on the population of a state, that means larger states, like California and Texas, have the highest number of electoral votes at 54 and 40. Five states—Alaska, Delaware, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming—have the least electoral votes at three. 

The election is essentially decided state-by-state. If a candidate wins the popular vote in a state, typically, they receive all of the states electoral college votes—even if the race is close.

But in Maine and Nebraska, there are split electoral votes, which means two electoral votes are given to the state’s popular vote winner, and then one electoral vote goes out to the popular vote winner per congressional district. 

How Many Votes a Candidate Needs to Win

In total, 538 electors will cast a vote in favour of a particular presidential candidate. In order to win the presidential election, candidates must receive a majority of the possible 538 votes or at least 270 votes. 

After voters cast their ballots on Election Day, races are eventually called in every state, with the first results starting to come in on Election Day. States have until December 10 to finalise any disputes or finish recounts over the results. 

On December 17, electors meet to cast their ballots for President. The copies of the ballots are then sent to the president of the US Senate, or Vice President to officially be counted. On January 6, 2025, Congress meets to count the electoral votes and certify victory for the candidate who has received at least 270.

If no presidential candidate gets 270 votes, then Congress will elect the President and Vice President. Each state’s House of Representatives  will cast a ballot in favour of one candidate. In this scenario, a candidate must earn at least 26 votes to win the presidency. The Senate elects the Vice President. Each Senator casts one vote for a vice presidential candidate, and whoever receives 51 votes will be elected. If the House of Representatives does not elect a president by Inauguration Day, Jan. 20, then the Vice-President-elect becomes the interim President until the House comes to a decision.

Why Electoral College? 

The rules for the Electoral College are outlined in the 12th Amendment of the Constitution. 

 The nation’s founders had thought it would be best to have the states elect a President rather than voters directly because democracy was a new idea during that period.

This decision was part of the checks and balances system prevalent throughout the American political system.

It also reflected the Founding Fathers’ lack of trust in voters, says John Sacher, a history professor at the University of Central Florida.

“They wanted property-owning white men to vote,” he said.

 “They wanted to make sure that people were virtuous who voted. They were concerned that if you allow the people too much power, the people might choose poorly.”

The logistics at the time also made it more difficult to get people to cast their ballot during a period with reduced and slower transportation, lower literacy rates, and limited education opportunities. In fact, it was not until the election of 1824 that eligible voters, not just electors, cast a ballot for the next leader of the U.S.  

Slavery also played a role in the establishment of the Electoral College when delegates to the 1787 constitutional convention agreed on the so-called three-fifths compromise in determining representation in the House. 

It was gathered that in order to distribute the number of congressional seats and the electoral votes, they would count an enslaved person as three-fifths of a human being.

Though they couldn’t vote, it boosted the seeming population of those states that had large numbers of lay people.

This made it so that those in the North would not wield significantly more power than those in the South, where many people remained enslaved.

How Electors are Selected 

Electors are selected by each political party, but the guidelines vary state-by-state. Guidelines that apply to all states include that no senator, representative, or person who holds an “office of trust or profit in the U.S.” can be an elector. State officials who have previously held an “insurrection or rebellion against the United States or given aid and comfort to its enemies” are also disqualified. 

What If an Elector Goes Rogue? 

While electors often vote for the presidential candidate they have pledged to vote for, sometimes “faithless electors,” do not do so. In 2016, seven electors went rogue—the most since 1972, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Thirty-five states and D.C. have laws against faithless electors. Violation of these laws could lead to fines or elector disqualification depending on the state. In New Mexico and South Carolina, faithless electors could face a criminal penalty. But, these faithless actors have never changed the outcome of an election.