Concerns Mount over Incessant Power Grid Collapse

* NGF consultant links power contractors to system sabotage, backs decentralised system

*Gencos lament impact of non-payment of N2.5tn debt, repeated grid collapse on their operation

Peter Uzoho

The collapse of Nigeria’s single electricity grid on Tuesday and Thursday this week, which took the number of such incidents in 2024 to 11, has again generated much concern in the country, as millions of homes and businesses continue to suffer blackout and resultant losses and pains.
The federal government had attributed the repeated grid collapse, which have become an embarrassment to Nigeria, to many factors including aged and ageing facilities, lack of maintenance and requisite investment, as well as alleged sabotage by unarmed forces.

However, a renowned energy expert and Lead Consultant on Power to the Nigerian Governors Forum (NGF), Mr. Odion Omonfoman, fingered bandits and some unscrupulous contractors of sabotaging the grid.
This was just as generation companies (Gencos) under the aegis of the Association of Power Generation Companies (APGC) bemoaned the impact of the incessant grid collapse on their operation. They claimed that the incident contributes to the rise of the debts owed them by the government which currently stands at N2.5 trillion.
The national power grid, which has been under the control and management of the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN), suffered two collapses this week, with the first incident happening at 2.09pm on Tuesday, followed by another one at 11am on Thursday, as none of the 26 power plants generated electricity as at the time.

Speaking to THISDAY in a phone chat while weighing in on the repeated grid collapse, the causes, impact on the nation, as well as the solution, the Lead Consultant on Power to the NGF, Omonfoman, said the impact was already known, as people were spending much of their hard-earned money on providing self generation.
Omonfoman, who is also the Chief Executive Officer of New Hampshire Limited, a meter manufacturing firm, said businesses were suffering as the grid collapse was adding to rising inflation in the country.
He also accused some unscrupulous contractors in the power sector of indulging in sabotaging the networks so as to win more contracts.

In terms of the solution, he proposed the adoption of a decentralised grid system which allows state governments to also participate in providing distributed generation.
According to him, the whole idea of everybody getting connected to the national grid was ridiculous, considering the country’s vast nature, which does not support a grid system that is not reinforced.
Omonfoman explained, “The cost of reinforcing a grid is elastic and states are already taking their own initiatives to make sure they have their own generation within their states. That’s the only thing that will solve this whole thing where we are not all reliant on the national grid.

“States that are able to attract investors, that are issuing new licenses for people to come and generate and distribute power to their citizens are the ones that would overcome this national grid issue. We cannot run a national grid with the level of insecurity we have because we are already seeing that bandits and contractors are targeting the national grid. It’s not only bandits.

“Contractors are actually targeting it so that they can get more contracts. It’s similar to what’s happening in the oil and gas industry where the same contractors are the ones that will sabotage pipelines so that they can be reissued repair contracts or pipeline protection contracts. That’s what’s going on with the national grid which is now becoming a cash cow for contractors.”
He argued that it was impossible to have sustained energy and energy reliability under a single grid that is more vulnerable to the kind of incessant breakdowns being witnessed in the country.
He stressed the importance of states creating their own electricity market where they could get the supplier side of the national grid and have a number of energy sources to apply.

With the Niger Delta states sitting on huge gas resources, he said they could leverage it to solve their energy challenge by encouraging and committing investments into building their own power plants and distribution systems.
Lagos State’s calling for a tender for the building of 4,000 megawatts of power plants in the state, he said, would go a long way in giving reliability to the citizens of Lagos.
With power plants in Edo, Rivers and Akwa Ibom states, Omonfoman noted that generation from such plants didn’t have to go to the national grid and that with such a mechanism, the states would have solved their electricity challenge.

“So, this whole essence of generating and putting on a national grid that is at best epileptic is ridiculous. We are seeing how it’s impacting inflation. It’s one of the reasons our cost of living is high, energy costs are high.
“So, my solution is that there is no point trying to throw so much money at this national grid. Let’s look at other sources. Let’s look at distributed generation sources. Let’s look at states attracting investment into the electricity market, bringing generation sources closer to the end users,” he pointed out.

More importantly, according to him, Nigeria cannot work with the existing 11 distribution companies (Discos), owing to their bankruptcy.
He added, “They cannot sustain energy supply to the end users. So states must now take charge and licence new operators that are more efficient and more reliable. But working with 11 Discos has been a recipe for disaster in the last 11 years.

“At the end of the day, there has to be new entrants into the distribution space so that as more power is generated, end users can have relief in terms of reliable supply. It’s a no brainer, it’s just that we work from a centralised market. If you are in Abuja, everything is rocket science.”
Also, Prof. Yemi Oke, a Senior Advocate of Nigeria (SAN) and a Professor of Energy and Electricity Law at the University of Lagos, said Nigeria’s power sector urgently needs decentralised, off-grid solutions as the national grid remains weak, unreliable, and costly to maintain.

Oke, in an interview with ARISE NEWS yesterday, called for immediate reforms, highlighting the pressing need for regional grids and stronger regulatory oversight to prevent further collapses.
Oke discussed Nigeria’s late entry into necessary reforms and highlighted key solutions, emphasising that action taken now is overdue but necessary.
Reflecting on the incessant grid collapses, Oke stated, “I think we started too late. I would agree to the fact that now we have started taking the right steps, but it’s too late because we ought to have started taking those steps years back.”

He suggested that Nigeria should have begun moving towards alternative grid structures, noting that global trends favour decentralised power solutions.
“The world is actually going off-grid. I was encouraged by the position of the ministers recently, when they declared that the country would look into state grids, regional grids, and other options.
“That’s almost 19 years late because all this has been advocated since the late Yar’Adua administration,” he added.

Oke likened Nigeria’s aging grid infrastructure to a, “weak pipeline” prone to rupture under pressure, comparing it to the national pipeline system.
“Our transmission infrastructure is very weak, and I have a problem with policy direction,” he said.
Reflecting on the recent blackout, he calculated the slight improvement in transmission capacity, but noted that “according to the Power Holding Company’s press statement, the collapse was due to an attempt to strengthen the grid—but it’s too late.”

Addressing reports of power distribution companies (DisCos) rejecting loads, Oke explained that this could exacerbate grid issues. “Discos rejecting load might not stop the problem. For instance, if you are to take 500 megawatts, you will look at the mathematics of translating that into money from your consumers.
“If you’re not sure of making the benefits of the megawatts allocated to you, some DisCos will reject it, which can also lead to grid collapse because you can’t store all these megawatts.”

Oke questioned the regulatory oversight in the sector, pointing out that both the TCN and power sector companies are regulated entities. “Where is the regulator? Even TCN is a regulated entity, granted that it’s government-owned.
“DisCos, GenCos, and other service providers in the power sector are regulated entities. If we had something similar to effective farm regulation, an independent regulator, then if anything happens, we have a power regulator,” he remarked.

Oke suggested that frequent national grid failures imply oversight gaps, adding, “If the players are not playing by the rules or not discharging their duties as required by law, they should be sanctioned. The fact that it’s a government entity doesn’t exempt it from regulation.”
Further, Oke highlighted that Nigeria has long faced issues of underutilised capacity. “I have always advocated for better performance from the Nigerian Regulatory Commission (NRC); all is not well in the power sector.
“DisCos have been rejecting loads. We have tons of idle megawatts. Even under the Obasanjo regime’s National Integrated Power Project (NIPP), there were idle megawatts that couldn’t be uploaded to the national grid because of capacity restrictions.”

Emphasising the need for decentralisation, Oke stated, “We need staggered, decentralised solutions completely off-grid. We can’t rely on the grid; it’s weak, and replacing it is expensive.”
He also noted that while states are now permitted by law to engage in power initiatives, they face challenges in attracting investors. “How many of the states are playing? They are challenged because no prudent investor would bring money into your state unless your state is able to play by the rules.
“The state must be competitive to attract investment,” he said.
Meanwhile, the Gencos have bemoaned the impact of the incessant grid collapse on their operation.
They claimed that the incident contributes to the rise of the debts owed them by the government, which currently stands at N2.5 trillion.

Chief Executive Officer of APGC, Dr. Joy Ogaji, revealed in a statement sent to THISDAY, yesterday, that the incessant grid collapse was having adverse impact on the commercial side of their operation.
“Frequent grid collapse leads to substantial revenue losses for GenCos. When the grid fails, power generation is halted, and GenCos cannot sell electricity. This disruption affects their cash flow and financial stability.

“The ongoing instability in the power sector has led to a significant accumulation of debt. For instance, GenCos in Nigeria are currently grappling with a debt of approximately N2.5 trillion. This debt burden is exacerbated by the inability to consistently generate and sell power,” Ogaji said.
She maintained that the grid collapse also leads to an increase in their operational costs, explaining that to mitigate the effects of grid collapse, Gencos often invest in backup systems and maintenance, which increases their operational costs.
Additionally, she pointed out, the need for frequent repairs and replacements of damaged equipment further strains their finances.

She said the issue also poses technical risk to Gencos, such as equipment damage, adding that grid collapse could cause severe damage to power generation equipment.
The sudden loss of load and subsequent power surges could lead to mechanical and electrical failures, Ogaji stated,  noting that “This not only shortens the lifespan of the equipment but also necessitates costly repairs and replacements.”
She further stated that, “The frequent interruptions in power supply create operational instability. GenCos must frequently restart their systems, which can lead to inefficiencies and increased wear and tear on machinery.
“Grid Frequency Issues: Maintaining a stable grid frequency is crucial for the efficient operation of power systems.

“Grid collapses often result in frequency fluctuations, which can disrupt the synchronisation of generators and lead to further technical challenges.”
In broader terms, she said the instability in power supply caused by grid collapse, not only affects Gencos but also industries and businesses that rely on a stable electricity supply.
This, she pointed out, could lead to broader economic impacts, including reduced productivity and increased operational costs for businesses.
Ogaji maintained that the frequent grid collapse highlights the need for robust regulatory frameworks and policies to ensure the stability and reliability of the power grid.

This, she said, included investments in infrastructure, maintenance, and the adoption of modern technologies to enhance grid resilience.
The Gencos’ spokesperson, however, noted that addressing these challenges required coordinated efforts from government, regulatory bodies, and the power sector to improve infrastructure, enforce maintenance protocols, and ensure financial viability for Gencos.
She confirmed that Nigeria experienced 11 grid collapses in 2024, with the most recent ones occurring on November 5th and 7th.