Grid-Lock: A Cry for Regional Power Solutions

femi Akintunde-Johnson

Nigeria’s energy crisis remains one of the most glaring symbols of its developmental challenges. Decades of mismanagement, policy missteps, and underinvestment have left the country struggling with an outdated national grid model that can neither meet current demands nor sustain future growth. The very concept of a single national grid is increasingly at odds with Nigeria’s geographical and infrastructural realities.

  The numbers tell a sobering story. The country’s base load demand for electricity stands at approximately 22,000MW for households and climbs to 40,000MW when industrial consumption is factored in. Yet, the national grid, with a wheeling capacity of 7,000MW, barely manages to deliver 5,000MW on its best days. By comparison, the state of Texas, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), had an installed capacity of 132,942 megawatts as at June 2021 (independently accounting for 12%-13% of the total energy generation of USA), while its largest city, Houston, alone produces 6,000MW – surpassing the output of Nigeria’s entire grid.

  Even more troubling are the transmission and distribution losses. In Nigeria, inefficiencies in the grid result in transmission losses of 8%-9%, while distribution losses range between 30% – 70%. In the US, the EIA estimates that about 5% of generated electricity is lost annually during transmission and distribution. In the UK, power losses are calculated to be 1.7% (transmission) and 5-8% (distribution). Global average for both is 8-9% cumulatively. Thus Nigeria loses billions of naira in wasted energy annually which contributes significantly to the country’s industrial stagnation and diminished quality of life.

  The global trend in power management, particularly in large, diverse nations, is a move toward regional or embedded grids. These systems localize electricity generation and distribution, reducing transmission losses and ensuring that power plants directly meet the needs of their immediate areas before contributing any surplus to the larger grid. 

  For Nigeria, the benefits of such a model are obvious. Power plants like Egbin Thermal plant in Ikorodu, Lagos, with a capacity of 1,320MW (the largest functioning), should prioritize meeting the demands of Lagos and its environs. Similarly, Papalanto power plant (225MW) in Ogun State, Omotoso (504.4MW) in Ondo State, Sapele (1,020MW) and Ughelli (972MW) in Delta State, Geregu (435MW) – Ajaokuta, Kogi State, Azura (461MW) in Edo, and Kainji Dam (760MW), Jebba Plant (578.4MW), Shiroro (600MW) and Zungeru (700MW) – all four in Niger State… could serve as anchors for localized grids. States or regions without sufficient power generation capacity could form coalitions to develop plants suited to their needs, leveraging the Electricity Power Sector Reform Act (EPSRA) of 2005, which already allows for private and regional power generation.

  The embedded generation model is not hypothetical – it is already showing promise in Nigeria. The Aba Power Project (181MW) in Abia State, for instance, operates independently of the national grid, providing consistent electricity to its immediate area. This has spurred rapid development, proving that reliable power supply can be a catalyst for economic growth and social stability.

  The insistence on a centralized grid model is a relic of past policies that prioritize uniformity over efficiency. It is illogical, for instance, to generate electricity in Calabar (562MW) and transmit it over thousands of kilometers to serve Kano, particularly when transmission and distribution losses and infrastructural weaknesses render such efforts futile. The lack of power generation infrastructure in some regions exacerbates this inefficiency. The northeastern and northwestern regions, for example, have almost no power plants of their own, relying instead on distant facilities in Niger and Kogi States. 

  On 28 October, 2024, The Punch newspaper reported “…that the national grid collapse has become a recurring issue in Nigeria, with 108 recorded collapses since the power sector’s privatization… Apart from Niger and Kwara, 17 states in the North are without electricity supply in the last two weeks. Worst affected are Kaduna, Kano, Jigawa, Gombe and Katsina, among others who have not had supply in the last two weeks. Others are Sokoto, Zamfara, Jigawa, Bauchi, Yobe, Borno, Adamawa, Taraba, Niger, Plateau, Nasarawa, Kogi and Benue.

  This over-reliance on a centralized grid perpetuates regional disparities and stifles localized innovation. Furthermore, regional grids would encourage accountability. Currently, a significant percentage of electricity consumers in states like Kano reportedly do not pay their bills. Localizing generation and distribution would place responsibility squarely on regional authorities and communities, incentivizing better governance and investment in maintenance.

  Developed countries provide a roadmap for Nigeria to follow. The United States operates three regional grids rather than a national one, with several power plants independently owned and managed. China, the world’s largest electricity producer, with a vastly larger population and energy demand, operates two major regional power grids (the State Grid in the north and the China Southern Power Grid in the south) which were synchronized in 2005 from six regional grids and three independent provincial grids – collectively generating 185,154GWh (185 million MWh) monthly. A staggering six million megawatt hours daily! These systems are designed to accommodate the geographical and industrial specificities of each region, ensuring reliability and scalability.

  In contrast, Nigeria struggles with just 23 major power plants, most of which are underperforming due to poor maintenance, corruption, and inadequate funding. Our country’s overburdened transmission infrastructure cannot handle the limited power generated, leading to frequent grid collapses and leaving millions in darkness. A quick digression and a crude comparison: the largest state in the US, Texas, has more than 250 power plants. 

  To address these challenges, Nigeria must undertake bold reforms. The country should transition from a national grid to regional grids, allowing states or geopolitical zones to independently manage generation and distribution. It must encourage private-sector investment in localized power plants, with policies that support embedded and off-grid solutions. The transmission infrastructure requires modernization and expansion to reduce losses and improve reliability. There must also be stringent policies to ensure that consumers pay for electricity, while offering incentives for states and regions to invest in their own power solutions. Finally, renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind, and hydroelectric power, should be more seriously explored, particularly in regions with limited conventional energy resources. 

  Nigeria’s energy crisis is not insurmountable. The tools and policies needed to transform the sector already exist; what is lacking is the political will and coordinated action to implement them. The success of localized models like Aba Power demonstrates that solutions are not only possible but already within reach. 

  The cost of inaction is too high. Power shortages have crippled industries, driven up the cost of living, and left millions of Nigerians in perpetual darkness. It is time to abandon the outdated and inefficient national grid model in favor of a system that prioritizes regional autonomy, efficiency, and sustainability.

  Nigeria, which produces 0.1% of total power globally and in 63rd position (compared to the top four: China – 31%; USA – 15%; India – 6% Russia and Japan – 4%) must move beyond mere rhetoric and implement pragmatic solutions that reflect the realities of its diverse and dynamic population. Anything less is a disservice to its people and a betrayal of its potential.

(This article was inspired by a vitriolic piece by an unknown author in a social network group)