NUPRC Data Contradicts NNPC’s 1.8m bpd Celebrated Output Figures, Indicates 1.53m Daily Production

Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja

The latest data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) on Nigeria’s daily crude oil production has contradicted the claim by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) that the country was producing 1.8 million barrels per day of crude oil and condensate.
A THISDAY review of the delayed October production figures by the NUPRC, which is the oil and gas sector upstream regulator, indicated that Nigeria produced 1.538 million bpd of crude oil and condensate.

The three-month low production data released by the NUPRC contradicted the report announced by the national oil company and the Ministry of Petroleum Resources (Oil), which specifically put production at 1.808 million bpd.
Although the NNPC also said that oil and condensate production in August was 1.7 million bpd, the report by the sector regulator indicated that the country only produced 1.57 million bpd for that month.
This showed a whopping difference of 130,000 bpd during the month.
Also, the disparity between the 1.808 million bpd celebrated by the NNPC was about 270,000 bpd less than the volume released by the NUPRC.

On November 14, the NNPC and the petroleum ministry announced that Nigeria had hit the 1.808 million bpd mark and was on its way to achieving two million bpd by this December.
The national oil company said that along with its partners, it had revved up crude oil and gas production to 1.8 million barrels per day (mbpd) and 7.4 billion standard cubic feet per day (bscfd).
“The team has done a great job in driving this project of not just production recovery but also escalating production to expected levels that are in the short and long terms acceptable to our shareholders based on the mandates that we have from the President, the Honourable Minister, and the Board,” the NNPC’s Chief Executive, Mele Kyari had explained.  

lso, the ‘Chief War Room Coordinator’ and Senior Business Adviser to Kyari, Mr. Lawal Musa, disclosed that when the team was inaugurated on June 25, 2024, production was at 1.430 million bpd.
According to him, the team swung into action, culminating in “sustaining the production recovery to 1.7 million bpd in August and hitting the current 1.808 million bpd in November.”
He added: “We are confident that with this same momentum and with the active collaboration of all stakeholders, especially on the security front, we can see the possibility of getting to 2 million bpd by the end of the year.”
However, the information released by the NUPRC showed that Nigeria’s oil output for last month was the lowest in the last three months.

In January, oil and condensate production was 1.64 million bpd; it was 1.539 million bpd in February; 1.43 million bpd in March; 1.44 million bpd in April, and 1.46 million bpd in May.
In June, it was 1.50 million bpd; 1.533 million bpd in July; 1.57 million bpd in August; 1.54 million bpd in September, and 1.538 million bpd in October.
Statutorily, it is the function of the NUPRC as the upstream regulator to: “Maintain records on upstream petroleum operations, particularly on matters relating to petroleum reserves, production/exports, licenses, and leases.”
Normally, the commission releases Nigeria’s production data every second week of the month, while typically, production computation is done monthly and not weekly.

NUPRC data showed that oil and condensate production slowed in Forcados from 7.29 million barrels in September down to 5 million barrels in October, while it rose marginally from 6.1 million barrels to 6.2 million in Bonny terminal.
Also, for the month, Nigeria produced 1.33 million bpd of its Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quota out of the 1.58 million bpd allocated to it by the international oil cartel.

Last year, OPEC cut Nigeria’s oil production quota, which was initially 1.8 million bpd, to 1.58 million bpd after years of the country’s inability to meet its target.
Nigeria blames massive oil theft, pipeline vandalism, ageing infrastructure as well as waning investment for the prolonged oil production deficit.