Nairametrics Economic Outlook: Redirecting Nigeria’s ailing economy in 2025

…as experts proffer solutions

Nairametrics took a bold step, weekend, to chart way forward on the ailing global economic situation with Nigeria in focus, prompting a convergence of experts who deliberated on a redirectional course towards improving the country’s economy in the years ahead.

The quarterly webinar conference by Nairametrics, tagged, “Nigeria Economic Outlook 2025,” held Saturday November 30, 2024 was a positive projection by the organisation and move to strengthen the country’s economy, addressing core areas that would help to increase Nigerias gross domestic product (GDP).

Focusing on exchange and interest rates, economic growth, and geopolitics, the conference with speakers drawn across the globe, highlighted the importance of critical evaluation of the existing economic challenges, profering prospects and way to navigate out of it.

Highlighting how Nigeria’s economy began to nosedive in the recent time, Chief Economist and Director of Research and Development, Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) Dr. Olusegun Omisakin, laid premise to democratic governance that picked in 1999 with emphasis on how the economy started to retrogress down the line. He said while Nigeria experienced significant growth rate of 14.6% in 2002, subsequent years have been marked by a downward trend.

“By 2005, growth had slowed to 7%, and between 2010 and 2016, GDP growth rates fluctuated between 2.7% and -1.6%, including a recession in 2016,” he said.

In addition, Omisakin explained that Nigeria economy must be restructured with focus on core indices that have mitigated acceleration, to have a head way. He also noted that while some economic stability might be achieved in the short term, the costs to the population will remain high unless structural issues are addressed.

In the same vein, another speaker, the Head, Group Corporate Banking and Chief Operating Officer CIB, Ecobank Transnational Incorporated, Dr. Bunmi Bajomo  took a swipe on government policies that hinders growth at financial institutions. But with a ray of hope, she mentioned that the reform in the Forex exchange regime have benefitted Nigerians in some sectors that included export zone.

She noted that reforms carried out by CBN as of April 2024 reduced the margin between the official and parallel markets.

“The gap between the official and parallel markets as of last year was like night and day. The official market was at about 475, while the parallel market was trending around 1,000. With the reform earlier this year, as of April 2024, the gap had narrowed to less than 1%. Even though we’ve now seen the gap widen to around 5%.That is one positive move,” remarked Bajomo, also noting that FX liquidity level has improved significantly by the new administration against the previous.

Bajomo expressed hope that Nigeria’s trade position in other sectors aside from petroleum are making an appreciable impact. She noted that if players in the agro-allied export sector can sustain production, it will help to reshape the economy because of current exchange rate.

A real estate expert and Chairman of Skymark Partners,Egie Akpata, in his contribution said that the state of the Nigerian stock market doesn’t reflect Nigeria economy, noting many big players in the economy are not represented in the security market, but commending the stock market in 2024 for its resilience.

He said, “The stock market’s 2024 year-to-day return is just 30%. That 30% is kind of what was initially concentrated because the year-to-date return was 30% by April and it’s been flat since April.”

He noted that the initial run-up in the all-share index was highly concentrated in large stocks, mentioning Dangote Cement, BUA Foods, Geregu Power, and others with exceptional performance in quarter one of 2024, adding that since then, the return position has broadened out.

Views of Kelvin Emmanuel, economist and public policy expert is not different from others as he mirrored into the petroleum sector. Emmanuel dissected the mainstream and downstream challenges, while proffering how the sector can be salvaged.

On the global scene, Professor Jeremy Ghez, a renowned professor of economics and international affairs at HEC, Paris noted that there is a lot to learn from global big players like United States of America. While drawing analogy from President-elect, Donald Trump’s “America First” mantra, he emphasised the ideology of ‘Transactionalism’ economic process and the power of negotiation including compromise as a veritable option to get the best deal in economic growth.

Jeremy explained that such strategies like power of negotiation would be best adopted by African leaders in strengthening their economy.

Amanda Woolverton, a marketing and communication expert

summed it up hinting on economic security and safety of supply chain in business as a way to stabilise the country’s economy. She also mentioned the impact of conscientiousness adaptation of ‘America First’ in strengthening Nigeria’s economic growth.

Issues like diaspora fund remittances and its proper utilisation was discussed as speakers said that government’s strategy in managing the fund is important.

Earlier in his remarks, Mr. Ugodre Obi-Chukwu, the founder and chief executive officer at Nairametrics, welcomed the participants, saying the current economic outlook called for expert positions ahead of 2025. He noted that Nairametrics Economic Outlook is an ongoing conversation done every quarter of the year with focus on reviewing how to better the country’s economy.