Who Succeeds Sanwo-Olu? Battle for Lagos Governorship in 2027 Begins

By Keem Abdul.

2027, the year in which the majority of Nigerians will once again go to the polls to elect a new set of leaders, may be three years away, but to the forward-looking political player on a mission, it is already yesterday

As far as Lagos State is concerned, and the question of who succeeds the current Governor, Babajide Olusola Sanwo-Olu, the prize is no less than the leadership of Nigeria’s commercial and industrial hub, and control over the largest subnational economy in Africa.

On the political front, too, the stakes are extremely high. On one hand, it is a battle for the soul of the ruling All Progressives’ Congress (APC) – the party which, in its various incarnations, has held power in the state since the advent of the present democratic dispensation in 1999. On the other hand, the party is seeking to keep at bay the challenge of the two main opposition camps, namely, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and especially the Labour Party (LP) whose ‘insurgent’ campaign in the last election cycle, and the tremendous traction it gained among a segment of the electorate, gave the APC an almighty scare.

While it may be premature to conclude that the victory of the APC in the 2027 polls is a foregone conclusion (because in politics, as they say, even a week is an eternity – let alone three years), it may be correct, however, to say that greater attention will be paid, in the run-up to 2027, to the contest within the ruling party (i.e., the battle over who emerges the APC’s gubernatorial flagbearer) than the battle between it and the opposition.

While it may also be premature to predict the combination of factors and circumstances that will determine the emergence of said candidate (and next Governor), permutations have already begun, and some names are already being bandied about in the public domain.

One of those names is that of Senator Mukhail Adetokunbo (Tokunbo) Abiru, who currently represents Lagos East Senatorial District in the upper legislative chambers. Whether or not the ready mention of his name at this stage of the coming race establishes him as the frontrunner, it is certainly an indication of the high regard and goodwill he commands in certain influential quarters within his party and constituency. A banker and financial titan-turned politician, Sen. Abiru is widely respected for his dedication to his constitutional role, and for his impactful interventions in his senatorial zone. Since his time as the Lagos State Commissioner for Finance, Abiru has distinguished himself in many ways. It was during his tenure, for example, that the state won international accolades for successfully floating an N80 billion bond. In the private sector where he operated before then, his expertise in financial management saw him rescue Skye Bank from the brink of collapse, transforming it into what is now Polaris Bank. At a point during the Tinubu presidential transition in 2023, Abiru was mentioned as a possible nominee for Finance Minister – before the position eventually went to Wale Edun. Abiru’s supporters believe his expertise in financial management and governance makes him the ideal candidate to lead Lagos into a new era of growth and prosperity.

Another name also being thrown up is that of former Governor Akinwunmi Ambode. During his four-year tenure at the helm (from 2015 to 2019), Ambode had a love-hate relationship with the APC leadership, which ultimately led to the truncation of his re-election bid in 2019. But his time in office is fondly remembered for its proactive approach to the challenges confonting Lagos State, and especially his achievements in the area of infrastructure – notably the rejuvenation of the Oshodi transport hub to the construction of new bridges and inner-city roads in virtually all 57 LGs and LCDAs across the state. In recent months, Ambode’s political stock seems to be on a slow but steady rise, and his rehabilitation from the margins (where he had been consigned since his ousting from Government House, Alausa) back to the mainstream seems to be gathering pace by the day. The drumbeat of support for his return to office has been taken up by various groups who describe his previous tenure as transformative, hence their desire to see him “complete the good work he started.”

And yet, in spite of the frequency with which these two names, Abiru and Ambode, are being mentioned in the public domain, and the airplay they’re getting as a result, the brewing contest for 2027 is by no means a two-horse race. The hovering presence of a figure who, as we speak, is just a heartbeat away from the Governorship seat – namely, the current Deputy-Governor of Lagos State, Dr. Kadiri Obafemi Hamzat – cannot be ignored. A former Governorship aspirant himself, he is the subject of speculations and incipient support rom those who do not have to think too hard to imagine him in the role, having seen him perform his duties creditably at the side of Governor Sanwo-Olu. Hamzat’s pedigree as the scion of a political dynasty (his late father, Oba Mufutau Olatunji Hamzat having once been a chieftain of the influential Justice Forum) is a factor that may count to his advantage.
Other figures also being mentioned are the current Chief of Staff to the President and immediate past Speaker of the House of Representatives, Hon. Femi Gbajabiamila, and the Speaker of the Lagos State of Assembly, Hon. Mudashiru Obasa. While Gbajabiamila’s potential candidacy hinges on his national profile and the network he has cultivated, Obasa (who holds the record of being the longest-serving Speaker in the state’s history) commands immense grassroots support within and well beyond his Agege constituency.
Last, but certainly not the least, is the proverbial elephant in the room: a young newcomer who combines something of the background and attributes of each of the aforementioned potential aspirants – except for the fact that he has never held political office before now. He is no other than Seyi Tinubu, eldest son of the Nigerian President, Bola Tinubu. He has of late been receiving endorsements from influential stakeholders, many of who have highlighted his outstanding achievements as an entrepreneur and philanthropist, asserting that his track record in business speaks volumes about his capacity to deliver in public office.

Mr. Tinubu’s hypothetical campaign for the Government House, Ikeja is however, riddled with pros and cons. One major pro is that in a clime where loyalty to the Tinubu Brand is often a ticket to the political equivalent of Eldorado, only the most foolhardy chieftain or operative in the party would risk his/her political fortunes by daring to oppose the son of the President – especially if Asiwaju himself expresses even the slightest inclination towards having his son follow in his gubernatorial footsteps.

However, similar to President Tinubu’s neutral stance towards his wife’s endeavour in pursuing her senatorial ambition, it is likely that he will not actively support his son’s ambitions unless the son establishes his own popularity base.
The con, apart from Seyi’s relative lack of political experience vis-a-viz the other hopefuls, may come in the form of subtle, covert opposition (from both within and outside the party) to having the acclaimed Centre of Excellence (as Lagos State is often reffered to) become something of a Tinubu family fiefdom. In such a scenario, Seyi’s ambition may be dead in the water – barring a robust, direct intervention on his behalf.

So, who will be the Lagos State Governor, come 2027? Although each aspirant’s ability to court critical stakeholders will be crucial to securing the top job, one suspects that the outcome will depend, to a great extent, on the preference of Mr. President – himself a former Lagos State Governor who continues to exert an enormous amount of influence in the affairs of the state. Apart from the President’s possible choice, other factors that might shape the 2007 contest include religion (after eight years of Sanwo-Olu, who is a Christian, there might be a consensus to have a Muslim at the helm – a scenario which benefits every of the aforementioned, except Ambode), as well as the possibility of zoning, and the influence of the Governor’s Advisory Council, GAC, of the APC.

As far as the citizens of Lagos State are concerned, though, the only consideration that matters, as far as 2007 is concerned, is the socio-economic progress of the state and who can best deliver it in an effective and timely manner.

In that spirit, their wish can only be: May the best man win.

• Keem Abdul, publisher and writer, hails from Lagos. He can be reached via +2348038795377 or Akeemabdul2023@gmail.com