2025: THE YEAR OF TRUMP

World hopes Trump will end wars; but Trump is not a Magician, contends RAJENDRA ANEJA

onald Trump will be crowned king of America and the uncrowned king of the world, in 2025. The eyes and ears of the entire globe will be on him. He loves astounding everyone. However, America and the world, will be in a volatile churn.

The biggest challenge before Trump, will be to end the Ukraine and Gaza wars. There is too much casual talk about World War III, without realising its perils. Never before, after World War II, have we been so close to another global conflagration. In 1962, during the Cuban crisis, there were two nuclear powers, America and Russia. Today, there are myriad players like China, North Korea, India, Pakistan and possibly Iran. Saudi Arabia, South Korea are itching to make nukes. Who will audit all these stockpiles?

Nuclear nukes are not marbles, to play with. A nuclear world war could dismember this planet physically. Trump must play peacemaker. He may kiss, hug or even scold Putin and Zelensky. But, he must make them holster their guns. Then, he will be respected globally.

Yet, hopes should be realistic. Trump is a President, a businessman, but, not a magician. He is also mercurial. Trump has to manage the quartet of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea. Perhaps Dale Carnegie’s ancient formula may work, “Win friends and influence people.”

Wars will continue to devour moneys. America will spend USD 895bn on defence. NATO will spend USD 1.47 trillion, on armaments. Russia has allocated USD 125bn, on defence. The world has ample money to fight. It does not have the leadership, to stop the fights.

France, Great Britain, Germany will wobble with internal issues like unstable governments, weak growth and immigration. The Middle East will balance adroitly between American security and Chinese investments.

Africa will grow, but steadily. Nigeria should stabilise its 27 percent inflation. Petrol from Aliko Dangote’s refineries can help. Sudan has 10 million displaced citizens. A brutal famine awaits. The world should heed. Syria will be unstable.

Modi needs a vibrant agenda, after his Parliamentary losses. Pakistan will struggle to develop. Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand will flourish, away from global conflicts. Myanmar will wrestle with rebels and incommunicado Aung Suu Kyi. Bangladesh will fester, without a roadmap.

Taming inflation will be the gargantuan task for leaders. Rich and poor countries have been mauled by this serpent, particularly in foods. Prices of flour, rice, oil, sugar, have spiralled seven to 15 percent in grocery shops, in Asia and Africa. The poor eat less.

Wheat and rice prices may decline, due to improved harvests. Food inflation may ease marginally. If inflation is tamed, interest rates may fall. Then consumers may spend in restaurants and buy cars.

Wars will strangle global GDP growth, to about three percent. America and Europe fund Ukraine’s war effort. Their own growth will stutter. America’s could grow by about 2.5 percent, Europe will struggle with about 1.5 percent. Britain will crawl at 1.2 percent. Some Western economies are mired in a two-to-three percent growth-trap. They should innovate.

America will tighten its borders to choke immigration. Trump may even fly some immigrants back home. However, protectionist policies may backfire, due to resultant higher local labour costs. Then, American products will become uncompetitive.

Trump’s planned tariff-wars, to side-line China may flounder. China is the world’s factory. It invests in technologies, ports and railways in Middle East and Africa. It offers the best prices globally.

Asia and Africa should create more jobs. Developing countries suffer 10-15 percent unemployment. Hence, the desperate attempts to migrate. A happy man does not leave home. India will shine with six percent growth. However, its 5-6 percent inflation, will neutralise growth.

Oil prices will hover at USD 75 per barrel. Prices may rise, if the wars end and industrial growth accelerates. Gold prices will stabilise around USD 2900 per ounce, if political sanity prevails. Stock markets will be unsteady. Healthcare will be neglected, with only 10 percent of global GDP expended on it. Electric vehicles (EV) will get traction, but high prices may depress demand.

Sadly, wars boost business. Companies making armaments, grew between 18 and 49 percent in Russia, Japan, Turkey, Israel. Revenues of big defence firms, are upwards of USD 632 billion. Killing seems a profitable business, in our inhuman world.

Corporations will debate how to harness Artificial Intelligence (AI). Digitisation will gallop. It will also reduce jobs and kill customer service. If you have a complaint about your refrigerator or bank, you press buttons, hear recorded messages. But, no salesperson talks. Companies will realise to build teams, employees have to attend offices. Working from home, cannot lead to innovations.

Wind and solar energy will contribute to around 17 percent of electricity consumed. Deforestation of the Brazilian Amazona rainforest, is lowering production of maize and soya. American astronauts Sunita and Barry, will return to earth, after eight months in space.

They went for eight days only. Astronauts may talk on 4G phones, with their families, on the next mission to the Moon. Drones will carry waste down, from Mount Everest. Good.

The FIFA-Club Cup will commence in America in June. Football fans will feast. Expect to pay more for OTT streaming or accept commercial breaks. Tom Cruise will enthral in a Mission Impossible sequel. Scientists may discover a one-jab Coronaviruses vaccine; hopefully, even a cancer vaccine.

In 2025, our best hopes are to avoid a World War, end the infernos in Ukraine and Gaza, tame inflation and create jobs. These are humble expectations. Hunger, poverty, inequalities continue; we can confront them, only if we remove the Damocles sword of a world war.

My soulmate Patricia, says we will not celebrate New Year. She is commiserating with the families, of over one million soldiers and civilians, perished in the Ukraine and Gaza wars. “Hopefully, we will celebrate the cease-fires in 2025,” says Patricia. Good girl. That’s why I love her, very deeply.

Aneja was the Managing Director of Unilever Tanzania. He is the author of “Little Thoughts for a Better World,” and writes from Mumbai, India