Declining Food Productivity

Declining cultivation of farmlands and low agro inputs, insecurity and adverse effects of climate change are lowering Nigeria’s agricultural productivity and driving high food inflation, writes Dike Onwuamaeze

The outlook for staple commodities in Nigeria is projected to be bleak. The country is expected to witness a decline in the production of basic food crops due to reduced input usage and the severe impacts of climate change.

According to “AFEX 2024 Crop Production Report, Nigeria,” farmers in the country have continued to face significant challenges, with limited access to finance and agricultural inputs emerging as the primary obstacles in planting. 

In addition, climate change has remained a critical threat to agricultural development, with delayed and excessive rainfall posing significant challenges for the 2024 production, both of which have had devastating effects on farmlands.  

The report stated that climate change has a direct and profound impact on Nigeria’s food insecurity, making food production increasingly difficult and unpredictable due to shifts and disruptions in weather patterns. 

Beyond risks to production capacity, climate change has significant economic and social consequences, including market disruptions, rising food prices, and instability in agricultural and rural incomes.

AFEX said: “Nigeria’s food system is under immense pressure, struggling with a combination of factors such as insecurity, macroeconomic instability, and the escalating impacts of climate change. As one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change, Nigeria frequently experiences natural hazards, including floods and droughts in its northern and southern regions, which further strain its agricultural sector.”

Maize

As the largest cereal crop in Nigeria, maize accounted for approximately 32 per cent of the total cereal area harvested in 2023. However, there was a notable decline in the area cultivated for maize, which decreased to 5.8 million hectares in 2022, down 7.0 per cent from 6.2 million hectares in 2021. Currently, maize production is on par with its consumption levels, highlighting the need for an increase in production.

The report stated that maize production in Nigeria faces several challenges such as inefficiencies in resource allocation, limited access to finance and agricultural inputs, and the prevalence of pests and diseases hinder productivity.  

It projected that maize production would decline by 5.6 per cent, resulting in an estimated total output of 11 million metric tons. 

This decrease can be attributed to several key factors, including a reduction in the cultivated land area, which shrank by over 3.o per cent due to rising production costs during the planting season, prompting many farmers to reduce the size of their farms. 

Climate change has further worsened the situation, with prolonged dry spells in states like Taraba and flooding in states such as Kaduna significantly hindering maize production and availability across these regions.

Soybeans

The demand for soybean has continued to outpace its production in Nigeria even though soybean’s production has increased by 12 per cent in the past 10 years. The country’s soybean sector is benefiting from its exclusive cultivation of non-genetically modified organisms (non-GMO) soybeans, which have a niche demand in the global market. This has positioned Nigerian soybean farmers to capitalise on the high demand, potentially earning foreign exchange for themselves and the country. 

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria generated N237.37 billion from the exports of soybeans and their derived products in 2023.

However, high international demand for Nigerian soybeans has also led prices to soar to over N1 million per metric tonne in the 2023/2024 season. 

Yet, Soybean production is projected to decrease by 4.8 per cent, resulting in a total national output of 1.2 million metric tons. This decline is primarily driven by the scarcity of Single Super Phosphate (SSP), the appropriate fertilizer type crucial for soybean cultivation due to its low nitrogen requirement. The shortage has caused a sharp increase in SSP prices, limiting its availability for farmers.  

Rice

In Nigeria, rice is the second-largest cereal crop and a crucial food security commodity. The country ranks fourth in global rice imports, accounting for about 5.0 per cent of global rice trade, and is the 10^th largest rice consumer worldwide. 

Regionally, Nigeria leads Africa in rice production, consumption, and imports, with an estimated per capita rice consumption of around 30 kg annually. 

Over the past decade, rice consumption in Nigeria has surged by 25 per cent, while production struggles to keep pace.  

The report projected that Paddy rice production will decrease by 2.6 per cent in 2024, resulting in a total output of 8.1 million metric tons. This decline is primarily driven by the high cost of fertilizers, which not only reduced rice yields but also led many farmers to switch to alternative crops such as sesame and sorghum that required less fertilizer and are less expensive to cultivate. 

Additionally, widespread insecurity in major rice producing states has disrupted farming activities, while severe flooding in several regions has further compounded the challenges, negatively impacting rice production and worsening the overall outlook for the crop. These combined factors are expected to significantly affect both the availability and price of paddy rice in the coming year.

Sorghum

In Nigeria, sorghum is ranked as the third-largest cereal produce, following maize and rice, with approximately 6.8 million tonnes harvested in 2022, accounting for 22 per cent of the country’s total cereal output. 

Notably, Nigeria has achieved self-sufficiency in meeting local demands, as production currently exceeds consumption.

A significant driver of the Nigerian sorghum market is the growing demand from manufacturers in the beverage, cereal, and confectionery sectors. This shift has created substantial opportunities for the viability and profitability of sorghum production. 

“With breweries increasingly adopting sorghum, the crop is transitioning from a traditional staple to a versatile ingredient used in a variety of foods and beverages, paving the way for wider consumption and innovative applications,” the AFEX’s report said.

Sorghum Projected Outlook

Sorghum production is projected to follow an upward trend, with an expected increase of 5.6 per cent in 2024, bringing the total national output to 6.6 million metric tons. 

This growth is largely attributed to an expansion in the land area cultivated, as many farmers have shifted from growing crops like paddy rice and soybeans to sorghum.

The key reasons for this shift include sorghum’s lower fertilizer requirements, which make it more affordable to cultivate, and its resilience to harsh climatic conditions, providing greater stability in regions affected by unpredictable weather patterns.  

Cocoa

Nigeria, the world’s sixth-largest cocoa producer, witnessed a decline in its production in 2023; the period when cocoa prices surged by over 250 per cent as Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana faced one of the worst supply deficits in decades. Additionally, the devaluation of the Naira exacerbated the price increase, given cocoa’s status as an internationally traded commodity.

Cocoa production is expected to experience an upward trend this season after several years of decline.  The elevated prices of cocoa have incentivised farmers to invest in essential pre-harvest activities such as tree pruning, fertilizer application, and pesticide use, all of which have contributed to improved yields from existing aging trees. 

Additionally, several cocoa seedling projects initiated in recent years are now yielding results, with many trees reaching maturity and expanding the area available for harvest. 

The report, therefore, projected “a 10 per cent increase in cocoa production this year, with an estimated yield of approximately 320,000 metric tons in 2024.”

Ginger

Global ginger production stands at approximately 4.9 million tonnes annually, and the market is projected to grow from $4.16 billion in 2023 to $6.29 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.08 per cent during the period from 2024 to 2030. 

Nigerian ginger holds a competitive advantage in the international market due to its pungency and high levels of oleoresin oil, a soughtafter active ingredient. Nigeria is the second-largest producer of ginger globally, after India, and the largest producer in Africa. About 80 per cent of Nigeria’s ginger output is exported.

Ginger production in Nigeria had been steadily rising since 2019, driven by growing global demand. However, in 2023, a widespread fungal infestation affected over 30,000 hectares of ginger farms, resulting in a staggering 92 per cent decline in production. This supply shortage triggered a sharp rise in prices, with the cost of ginger soaring by more than 400 per cent in the 2023/2024 season, reaching an average price of N4.15 million per metric ton.

“We estimate a 136 per cent year-on-year increase in ginger output for 2024, projecting a total of around 160,000 metric tons. 

“Although farmers allocated 75 per cent more land to ginger in 2023 compared to previous years, the area harvested was significantly lower due to the devastating impact of the fungal outbreak during the 2023/2024 season. 

“This outbreak affected over 30,000 hectares and resulted in a 92 per cent year-on-year decline in production, with harvested output dropping from 845,000 metric tons in 2022 to just 68,000 metric tons in 2023. 

“While the forecasted 160,000 metric tons for 2024 indicates a recovery, it remains well below pre-outbreak production levels. 

“Urgent interventions are needed to prevent farmers from shifting away from ginger to other crops. Without these measures, it could take up to five years to restore ginger production to 2022 levels,” AFEX said. 

Sesame

In Nigeria, sesame seed production is concentrated in the North-central region, including states such as Benue, Nasarawa, Kogi, and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). 

Nigeria is ranked as the fifth-largest producer of sesame globally, with an output of 450,000 metric tonnes, and is the third-largest producer in Africa, following Sudan and Tanzania. However, the country faces challenges with a relatively low average yield of 1.2 tonnes per hectare.

Despite these challenges, sesame is a key export crop for Nigeria, significantly contributing to foreign exchange earnings. Approximately 60-70 per cent of sesame seeds produced in Nigeria are exported, with major destinations including Japan, Turkey, Vietnam, and China. 

In 2023, Nigeria earned N253.6 billion from sesame exports and was the third-largest exporter of sesame globally in 2022 according to the NBS. With global demand continuing to rise, Nigeria has significant potential to further increase its foreign exchange earnings through sesame exports.

“Our projections indicate a substantial 5.7 per cent increase in sesame production for 2024, with an estimated output of 613,000 metric tons. 

“This growth is primarily driven by the expansion of cultivated land, with over 4.0 per cent increase in sesame-cultivated areas. The rise in local sesame prices, which experienced a 55 per cent seasonal increase during the 2023/2024 season due to growing international demand, has motivated farmers to allocate more land for sesame cultivation,” the report said.

CASHEW

Since 2019, Nigeria’s cashew production has been declining with yields averaging just 0.5 tonnes per hectare—significantly lower than Malawi’s average of 2.1 tonnes per hectare due to aging cashew trees, post-harvest losses, adverse climatic conditions, and the high cost of inputs.