Mozambique Awaits Election Verdict – Opposition-Driven Unrest Must Cease, Accountability and Peace Are Paramount

By Sebastian Thornhill

Mozambique stands at a defining juncture in its history. As the Constitutional Council prepares to announce the final results of the disputed October 2024 elections on Dec. 23, the nation faces a critical question: will the opposition choose the path of peace and democratic reconciliation, or will it force the nation deeper into the violent unrest that has already claimed over 110 lives?

The turmoil that followed the announcement of provisional election results, declaring Daniel Chapo of Frelimo the winner, underscores the fragility of Mozambique’s democratic framework. Allegations of electoral fraud have fueled widespread discontent, and while peaceful protest is a hallmark of democracy, opposition leader Venâncio Mondlane’s inflammatory rhetoric has turned discontent into a wave of destructive violence.

The Scale of the Crisis

Over the past few months, Mozambique has witnessed scenes of chaos in its cities, with businesses shuttered, streets transformed into battlegrounds, and vital infrastructure damaged or destroyed. International observers have expressed alarm, not only because of the immediate human toll — more than 110 deaths, countless injuries, and mass displacements — but also because of the long-term implications for Mozambique’s fragile democracy.

International markets have been rattled, as Mozambique is a crucial supplier of critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements. These resources play a vital role in powering the global green energy transition, and any prolonged instability in Mozambique could have significant ripple effects on global supply chains and technological advancements.

The country’s political turmoil has implications far beyond its borders. As one of the world’s largest suppliers of critical minerals essential for renewable energy and electric vehicle industries, Mozambique’s stability is integral to global economic and environmental objectives. Prolonged unrest could embolden extremist groups and transnational criminal networks, further destabilizing southern Africa. This is a scenario that neither the region nor the international community can afford.

Transport Minister Mateus Magala has urged citizens to embrace dialogue, stating, “Whatever the decision is, it should not create a situation where people, if they’re not happy with it, resort to violence. Dialogue, dialogue, dialogue — that is how we resolve our differences.” But dialogue requires mutual commitment, and the opposition’s leadership has shown little inclination toward peaceful resolution.

Venâncio Mondlane and the Opposition’s Role in Escalating Violence

At the epicenter of the unrest is Venâncio Mondlane, the leader of the opposition PODEMOS party. His campaign of incendiary rhetoric has exacerbated tensions, with calls for supporters to “bring the government to its knees.” Instead of urging peaceful protests, Mondlane’s statements have emboldened violent factions within his support base.

The results have been catastrophic: looting, vandalism, clashes with police, and the loss of innocent lives. Mondlane’s rhetoric has drawn condemnation from domestic and international leaders alike, who argue that his actions amount to reckless endangerment of the nation’s stability.

A research advisor to the International Criminal Court (ICC), who originally hails from Sub-Saharan Africa, speaking on condition of anonymity, commented: “Incitement to violence and the deliberate destabilization of democratic institutions are grave matters. The ICC is closely watching the situation in Mozambique. Leaders who exploit grievances for violence must be held accountable under international law. Mozambique’s case could set a critical precedent.”

The ICC’s involvement would send a strong message: that democracy cannot be hijacked through violence, and those who incite chaos for political gain will face justice.

Lessons from Successful Democratic Transitions

While Mozambique struggles with its current turmoil, its neighbors and other nations provide powerful examples of how democracy can thrive through peaceful resolution of disputes, signaling a new chapter for the continent.

Botswana recently ended nearly six decades of one-party dominance with the election of Duma Boko, following a transition marked by civility, respect for democratic principles, and the prioritization of national unity. President Mokgweetsi Masisi’s leadership in facilitating this peaceful transfer of power to Duma Boko exemplifies Africa’s growing embrace of modern democracy and its departure from outdated and divisive political practices.

In Ghana, which continues to serve as a beacon of democratic resilience, the Dec. 7, 2024, presidential election reaffirmed the country’s commitment to these ideals. Former President John Dramani Mahama was declared the winner with 56.55% of the vote, defeating Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia, who secured 41.61%. Vice President Bawumia conceded very early on in the process, stating, “I respect the will of the Ghanaian people and congratulate President-elect Mahama on his victory.” This act of graciousness not only underscores Ghana’s dedication to democratic principles but also sets a positive example for the region and highlights the growing maturity of African democracy.

Kenya’s recent elections showcased the importance of dialogue and judicial review in resolving disputes. A contested presidential election was resolved transparently when the Supreme Court upheld the results after a thorough legal process, reinforcing institutional trust and adherence to constitutional mechanisms.

Even in politically volatile regions, leaders have demonstrated the value of peaceful dialogue and constitutional adherence. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, Moïse Katumbi advocated for open dialogue and respect for the constitution, enabling the country to move toward a stable transfer of power despite longstanding challenges. President Félix Tshisekedi’s great and commendable leadership further emphasized governance and collaboration over conflict.

All these examples — from Masisi’s Botswana to Ghana, Kenya, and Congo — are pointers to Africa’s modern democracy and a jettisoning of the barbaric tendencies that characterized Africa’s “do-or-die” politics, which is now obsolete and outdated. These transitions mark a decisive shift toward civility, institutional respect, and prioritization of national unity, offering Mozambique a powerful blueprint for overcoming its current challenges and achieving democratic progress.

The Peaceful Transfer of Power: A Global Example

In the United States, the peaceful transfer of power remains a bedrock principle, even amid intense political polarization. The recent 2024 election of Donald Trump, following his victory over incumbent President Joe Biden, demonstrated the resilience of America’s democratic institutions. Despite fierce political debates and skepticism from opposing camps, the transition process was conducted peacefully and with respect for the rule of law. Outgoing President Biden emphasized the importance of maintaining the integrity of democratic traditions, ensuring a smooth handover of power to Trump’s administration.

The State Department under President Trump is expected to continue its historical stance of advocating for the peaceful resolution of electoral disputes in democracies worldwide. Mozambique’s opposition must take a lesson from this: even in nations marked by deep political divides, the rule of law and respect for electoral outcomes are crucial to sustaining public trust and ensuring stability.

By upholding democratic principles and engaging in peaceful transitions, the United States continues to set an example for nations grappling with political unrest. Mozambique, facing the fallout from its disputed election, should look to such examples as it navigates its own path forward. Stability, dialogue, and adherence to constitutional norms are the cornerstones of any enduring democracy.

Economic Fallout: A Natin on the Brink

The consequences of the unrest are already being felt acutely. Mozambique’s economy, once on a path to recovery, has been severely derailed. The IMF’s initial growth forecast of 4.3% for 2024 has been revised downward as a result of the political crisis and Cyclone Chido, which killed 34 people and caused extensive damage to critical infrastructure.

Mining operations, including those of major international firms like South32 Ltd., have been disrupted or suspended. Trade corridors with neighboring countries, such as the critical South African border crossing, have faced repeated closures, choking off vital economic lifelines.

Olamide Harrison, the IMF’s resident representative in Mozambique, noted, “Growth went from 4.5% in the second quarter to 3.7% in the third quarter, before the protests started. The continued instability will push even more Mozambicans into poverty, and its impact will be felt across southern Africa.”

This is not just a domestic issue. As Mozambique falters, the regional economy could face significant ripple effects, undermining years of progress.

A Roadmap for Peace

The Constitutional Council’s decision on December 23 must serve as a turning point. For this to happen, all parties must commit to respecting the outcome, no matter the result. The government must engage in electoral reforms to address grievances, while the opposition must renounce violence and embrace dialogue as the path to justice.

Mozambique has a chance to rise above this crisis. By drawing on the examples of Botswana, Ghana, and Kenya, it can rebuild trust in its institutions and pave the way for a more inclusive democracy. Stability, dialogue, and adherence to constitutional norms are the cornerstones of any enduring democracy.

The world is watching, and Mozambique must demonstrate that it values peace over division, accountability over impunity, and democracy over chaos. Violence must end, and those who have fueled it must answer for their actions. Only then can Mozambique truly begin to heal and build a future worthy of its people.