FROM RENEWED HOPE TO RESTORATION
PAT ONUKWULI argues that the success of the budgets will not be measured by economic growth alone but by improvements in the lives of ordinary people
In the swirling winds of Nigeria’s economic landscape, the Tinubu administration’s 2024 ‘Budget of Renewed Hope’ and 2025 ‘Budget of Restoration’ stand like a tightrope stretched over a yawning abyss.
These budgets, with their lofty ideals and carefully crafted promises, balance economic revival and collapse. Yet, as with any high-wire performance, one false step could plunge the nation into more profound despair, leaving millions of Nigerians, already dangling on the edge of poverty, as casualties of ambition unmet by execution.
The story begins with the 2024 Budget, aptly named ‘Renewed Hope’, a declaration of optimism for a nation battered by years of economic turbulence. This budget sought to stabilise the ship, leveraging Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) to fund ambitious energy and infrastructure projects and introducing a student loan scheme to bolster human capital. On paper, it was a blueprint for transformation: a conservative oil benchmark of $77.96 per barrel, a production target of 1.78 million barrels per day, and a Naira exchange rate of N750/USD. Yet, beneath this calculated optimism lay the storm. Inflation surged above 30 per cent, eroding the purchasing power of Nigerians and revealing the fragility beneath the surface.
The Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS)’s achievement of 75 per cent of its revenue target by the third quarter of 2024 showcased some progress. However, challenges like soaring living costs, insecurity, corruption, ballooning debt, and widespread discontent remained glaring. The narrative is one of a house built on shifting sands, vulnerable to external shocks and internal inefficiencies.
Then comes the 2025 Budget, a bolder gambit christened ‘Restoration’. This time, the stakes are higher, the ambitions grander. With an unprecedented expenditure of N47.9 trillion, the government aims to consolidate the “progress” of 2024 while targeting inflation reduction to 15 per cent, stabilising the Naira at N1,500/USD, and expanding investments in security, agriculture, and social services. It is a budget of promises built on the premise of hope restored. But the risks are glaring: debt servicing costs surge to N15.81 trillion, swallowing revenues and threatening to leave critical sectors gasping for funds. Oil revenue, the lifeline of Nigeria’s economy, remains a volatile foundation for such towering aspirations.
The tightrope act is precarious not because the goals are unworthy but because the ground beneath Nigeria’s institutional framework remains unstable. Macroeconomic stability, employment generation, and poverty reduction are laudable aims, but they hinge on more than fiscal policy. They demand the preservation of fundamental principles of the state and its constitution, such as security, judicial independence, and the rule of law. Without these cornerstones, even the most meticulous budget becomes a brittle scaffold, incapable of supporting the weight of its ambitions.
Security is the foundation upon which all progress is built. Without it, businesses falter, investments flee, and citizens live in perpetual fear. The administration’s pledge
to overhaul internal security systems is laudable, but implementation is key. Financial allocations alone cannot combat entrenched corruption, mismanagement, and inefficiency within the security apparatus. Decisive actions are crucial, from equipping law enforcement to fostering inter-agency coordination. If this fails, the promised transformation will remain elusive, and insecurity will suffocate economic growth.
A thriving democracy depends on the impartiality and independence of its judiciary. For policies to take root and flourish, the justice system must be free from political interference and corruption. It must serve as an instrument of fairness and accountability, ensuring the rule of law prevails. Without this, the budgets’ potential to foster equitable income distribution and human capital development will be undermined. In its wake, a parlous and dysfunctional system will endure for ordinary Nigerians.
Corruption, the insidious monster gnawed at Nigeria’s progress for decades, remains the greatest threat to these budgets’ success. It seeps into every sector, distorting priorities and siphoning resources meant for development. The fight against corruption cannot be half-hearted. It requires a comprehensive strategy, from strengthening anti-corruption agencies to promoting transparency in public financial management. Without this, the ‘Renewed Hope’ and ‘Restoration’ agendas risk being devoured by the system they seek to reform.
The journey from ‘Renewed Hope’ to ‘Restoration’ is not just a fiscal challenge but a moral and institutional one. Success lies in balance: between ambition and realism, promises and actions, and short-term fixes and long-term solutions. For the Nigerian farmer in Borno, braving insecurity to till the soil or the small business owner in Lagos grappling with inflation and power outages, these budgets must transcend numbers to become catalysts for real change. Therefore, success will not be measured by economic growth alone but by the tangible improvements in the lives of ordinary Nigerians.
The question remains: Can these promises ripple through Nigeria’s diverse socio-economic strata to foster honest and lasting development? For these budgets to resonate, they must address these lived realities.
One critical challenge lies in implementation. History has shown that even the best-laid plans falter without meticulous execution and robust accountability frameworks. The Tinubu administration must resist the allure of symbolic achievements and instead prioritise measurable, impactful interventions. For instance, investments in education and healthcare, highlighted as cornerstones of the 2025 Budget, must translate into functional schools, accessible student loans, and revitalised hospitals equipped to serve the masses.
Nigeria’s overreliance on oil revenue is a well-worn narrative, but diversification, its elixir, remains elusive. The 2025 Budget’s emphasis on agricultural revitalisation and manufacturing growth is a step in the right direction. However, it requires more than rhetoric. It demands infrastructure development, access to modern technologies, and policies that empower local producers. By reducing dependency on imports and creating jobs, these efforts can lay the foundation for a more resilient economy.
Trust is the currency of governance, and transparency is its guarantor. Citizens, as stakeholders, must have avenues to monitor and engage with budgetary processes. This participatory approach builds trust and ensures that projects meet people’s needs. The government’s commitment to leveraging technology for financial management reforms is commendable, but it must be backed by consistent implementation and independent oversight.
The world beyond Nigeria’s borders adds another layer of complexity. Rising geopolitical tensions, fluctuating commodity prices, and the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cast long shadows over national ambitions. Navigating these external pressures requires adaptive strategies and cohesive leadership, which will be tested as the Tinubu administration progresses.
Amid these challenges, the resilience of the Nigerian people inspires hope. Time and again, they have shown an ability to thrive against all odds. It is this spirit that the Tinubu administration must harness and amplify but never underrate or treat with disdain. By empowering citizens through education, entrepreneurial support, and social safety nets, the government can transform these budgets from theoretical frameworks into engines of collective progress.
Accordingly, for the Tinubu administration, the path ahead demands courage, collaboration, and untiring devotion to the principles of good governance. Only by addressing the systemic issues that underlie Nigeria’s economic struggles can the promises of ‘Renewed Hope’ and ‘Restoration’ materialise.
Onukwuli PhD, writes from Bolton, UK
